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Prediction markets for Tech

Will "narcissistic, orgying tech nerds" solve social ills?

Oct 8, 7:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.55%chance

10129027

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1394

520

Did tech companies spy on you through device microphones?

Jan 4, 5:31 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

7.11%chance

7310550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3614

277

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Feb 20, 10:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

27%chance

1459501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6094

4376

Will a tech company buy an aluminum smelting company before 2030?

Jun 5, 2:49 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.64%chance

213906

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1703

587

Should smart, ethical people go into AI rather than climate tech? (subsidized)

Oct 17, 6:41 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68.7%chance

313019

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

838

Will Silicon Valley still be the world's most successful tech hub in 2050?

Jan 7, 11:36 PMJan 13, 4:59 AM

59.88%chance

482947

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1132

887

Are tech employees cooked before 2028 (Layoffs.fyi layoffs)?

Apr 22, 6:24 PMMay 1, 10:59 PM

44.15%chance

71967

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1125

889

Will more than 150k tech layoffs occur in 2026?

Apr 2, 11:36 PMMay 1, 10:59 PM

82.79%chance

121807

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2193

456

Will AI or other tech be usable by the public to enable lucid dreaming by 2027?

Oct 9, 12:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.55%chance

261430

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

776

Will Silicon Valley still be the world's most successful tech hub in 2060?

Feb 4, 3:15 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

54.2%chance

381015

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1302

591

Will any big tech ex-employee become President of the US before 2040?

Sep 22, 11:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

29.96%chance

21518

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1022

926

Will tech bros turn the US into an open oligarchy / plutocracy?

Jan 19, 5:56 PMFeb 26, 10:59 PM

51.98%chance

4161

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1040

961

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