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Will Neuralink successfully enable a blind person to see again using its technology by 2030?

Jan 21, 2:42 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

67.39%chance

18591740

OptionVotes

YES

1690

319

Which of Ars Technica's Starship timeline predictions will be accurate?

Oct 28, 2:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3174956

OptionProbability

In-space second stage raptor relight in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025

Uncrewed lunar landing in Q1, Q2, or Q3 2027

Long-duration flight test in Q3 or Q4 2026

Crewed lunar landing in Q3 or Q4 2028

Starship second stage landing on land in Q2, Q3, or Q4 2025

In-orbit propellant transfer demo in Q3 or Q4 2025

Re-flight of a Super Heavy first stage in Q1 or Q2 2026

100

Are any UFOs actually highly-advanced technology?

Nov 18, 5:19 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

20.62%chance

10248316

OptionVotes

YES

1539

1185

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Jan 13, 7:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.18%chance

13746687

OptionVotes

YES

13320

9842

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Nov 23, 11:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.47%chance

9021683

OptionVotes

YES

14005

8548

Will Neuralink successfully enable a paralyzed person to walk again using its technology by 2030?

Jan 21, 2:41 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

55.31%chance

9716171

OptionVotes

YES

1494

589

Is cryonic reanimation possible with current preservation technology?

Nov 20, 3:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

37.05%chance

9512459

OptionVotes

YES

1817

544

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Feb 20, 10:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

27.17%chance

1459535

OptionVotes

YES

6060

4388

By what years will I agree that "The Superalignment Problem has a technically elegant solution w.p. >80%”?

Jun 12, 6:12 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

227020

OptionProbability

2050

2040

2030

2028

2027

2026

2025

2024

Technical default on US Treasury debt by 1/20/2029

Feb 11, 12:05 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

15.96%chance

275012

OptionVotes

YES

2295

436

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39%chance

274155

OptionVotes

YES

1253

801

Will "“The Era of Experience” has an unsolved techn..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 25, 7:45 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

114

OptionVotes

YES

1000

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Will Neuralink successfully enable a blind person to see again using its technology by 2030?

Which of Ars Technica's Starship timeline predictions will be accurate?

Are any UFOs actually highly-advanced technology?

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Will Neuralink successfully enable a paralyzed person to walk again using its technology by 2030?

Is cryonic reanimation possible with current preservation technology?

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

By what years will I agree that "The Superalignment Problem has a technically elegant solution w.p. >80%”?

Technical default on US Treasury debt by 1/20/2029

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Will "“The Era of Experience” has an unsolved techn..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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