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Which of Ars Technica's Starship timeline predictions will be accurate?

Oct 28, 2:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3377099

OptionProbability

In-space second stage raptor relight in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025

Uncrewed lunar landing in Q1, Q2, or Q3 2027

Crewed lunar landing in Q3 or Q4 2028

Long-duration flight test in Q3 or Q4 2026

Starship second stage landing on land in Q2, Q3, or Q4 2025

In-orbit propellant transfer demo in Q3 or Q4 2025

Re-flight of a Super Heavy first stage in Q1 or Q2 2026

100

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Jan 13, 7:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.43%chance

14057666

OptionVotes

YES

18795

6906

Are any UFOs actually highly-advanced technology?

Nov 18, 5:19 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

18.27%chance

10248392

OptionVotes

YES

1501

1343

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Nov 23, 11:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.65%chance

9122191

OptionVotes

YES

14513

8421

Will Neuralink successfully enable a paralyzed person to walk again using its technology by 2030?

Jan 21, 2:41 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.27%chance

10016663

OptionVotes

YES

1398

675

Is cryonic reanimation possible with current preservation technology?

Nov 20, 3:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

37.69%chance

9612469

OptionVotes

YES

1801

554

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Feb 20, 10:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

25.52%chance

1479885

OptionVotes

YES

6410

4263

By what years will I agree that "The Superalignment Problem has a technically elegant solution w.p. >80%”?

Jun 12, 6:12 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

227020

OptionProbability

2050

2040

2030

2028

2027

2026

2025

2024

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:21 AMDec 29, 11:20 AM

18.49%chance

256659

OptionVotes

YES

2103

477

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

325852

OptionVotes

YES

1365

735

Technical default on US Treasury debt by 1/20/2029

Feb 11, 12:05 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

15.96%chance

275012

OptionVotes

YES

2295

436

Will "“The Era of Experience” has an unsolved techn..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 25, 7:45 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

114

OptionVotes

YES

1000

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Which of Ars Technica's Starship timeline predictions will be accurate?

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Are any UFOs actually highly-advanced technology?

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Will Neuralink successfully enable a paralyzed person to walk again using its technology by 2030?

Is cryonic reanimation possible with current preservation technology?

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

By what years will I agree that "The Superalignment Problem has a technically elegant solution w.p. >80%”?

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Technical default on US Treasury debt by 1/20/2029

Will "“The Era of Experience” has an unsolved techn..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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