Techne News

Will Neuralink successfully enable a blind person to see again using its technology by 2030?

Jan 21, 2:42 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68.41%chance

18391646

OptionVotes

YES

1713

308

Which of Ars Technica's Starship timeline predictions will be accurate?

Oct 28, 2:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2970192

OptionProbability

In-space second stage raptor relight in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025

Long-duration flight test in Q3 or Q4 2026

Uncrewed lunar landing in Q1, Q2, or Q3 2027

Crewed lunar landing in Q3 or Q4 2028

Starship second stage landing on land in Q2, Q3, or Q4 2025

In-orbit propellant transfer demo in Q3 or Q4 2025

Re-flight of a Super Heavy first stage in Q1 or Q2 2026

100

Are any UFOs actually highly-advanced technology?

Nov 18, 5:19 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

22%chance

10248166

OptionVotes

YES

1560

1107

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Jan 13, 7:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

45.07%chance

13646186

OptionVotes

YES

12828

10231

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Nov 23, 11:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

21.32%chance

8821179

OptionVotes

YES

13505

8680

Which combinations of technology will cause most disruption the world in the next 25 years?

Feb 18, 5:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9415448

OptionProbability

Bitcoin + AI

Energy harvesting + sensor ubiquity

AI + Genetics

Bitcoin + XR

Social media + AI

AI + Internet

AI + Spatial Computing

AI + Medicine

Fintech + AI

AI + Advanced Materials

AI + Bioengineering

AI + Physics

AI + Robotics

3D Printing + Materials Science

BCI + Internet

Mobile Technology + Social Media

AI + IoT

XR + AI

Quantum Computing + Materials Science

AI + VR

AI+Blockchain

AI + Prediction Markets

Wearable Technology + Telemedicine

GPS + Real-time Traffic Data

Haptics + BCI

AI + fossil fuels

Vertical farming + Solar

BCI + Remote sensing

Decentralized IP Verification and Education (Blockchain Credentials)

Nuclear Energy + Transportation

BCI + Dating Apps

Predictive Markets and Constitutional Alignment of AI

Is cryonic reanimation possible with current preservation technology?

Nov 20, 3:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

39%chance

9312387

OptionVotes

YES

1767

574

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Feb 20, 10:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

31%chance

1439115

OptionVotes

YES

3207

2034

By what years will I agree that "The Superalignment Problem has a technically elegant solution w.p. >80%”?

Jun 12, 6:12 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

227020

OptionProbability

2050

2040

2030

2028

2027

2026

2025

2024

Technical default on US Treasury debt by 1/20/2029

Feb 11, 12:05 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

20.84%chance

274602

OptionVotes

YES

1949

513

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.44%chance

213540

OptionVotes

YES

1033

971

Will "“The Era of Experience” has an unsolved techn..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 25, 7:45 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

114

OptionVotes

YES

1000

Techne News

Prediction markets for Techne

Prediction markets for Techne

Prediction markets for Techne

Will Neuralink successfully enable a blind person to see again using its technology by 2030?

Which of Ars Technica's Starship timeline predictions will be accurate?

Are any UFOs actually highly-advanced technology?

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Which combinations of technology will cause most disruption the world in the next 25 years?

Is cryonic reanimation possible with current preservation technology?

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

By what years will I agree that "The Superalignment Problem has a technically elegant solution w.p. >80%”?

Technical default on US Treasury debt by 1/20/2029

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Will "“The Era of Experience” has an unsolved techn..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Latest stories