TEE News

Will I get any new cavities after applying the Lantern Bioworks strain to my teeth by 2026?

Sep 27, 2:00 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

23.63%chance

11121698

OptionVotes

YES

2269

1739

Which countries will ban social media for teens by EOY 2026?

Dec 12, 2:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

445976

OptionProbability

Malaysia

Indonesia

France

United Kingdom

Spain

Denmark

Canada

Norway

New Zealand

Australia will ease the ban or introduce exclusions that effectively remove it for most

Japan

United States

100

Which of these research ideas will I publish or preprint by end of 2026?

Dec 10, 4:53 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

71671

OptionProbability

Grover Project w/ Or

[James's system of equations for multichoice mechanism versions](https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/solve-these-equations-for-a-simpler#pcfde0bgc1)

Formalizing "Categorical Composable Cryptography"

SNARK project w/ Sanjam

Data availability phase changes

`nazg`: Proving Ring Equalities Done Wrong

Post-quantum backdoorable VDFs

Iuvenes Project w/ Or

Mechanism design to incentivize `mathlib` contribution

Optimal sampling for statistical democracy w/ Surya

Formal Proof for Marlin w/ Pratyush

Eigenlayer Project w/ Or

NeRF the world

TEE via physics/materials science w/ Sylvain

Krugman's Interstellar trade redux

Solving Hanabi

Automated Market Maker Monte Carlo w/ @EvanDaniel

Quantum cowry shells

range saturation tactic

Mixing for slow traders

Homotopy theory DeFi

Violating classical consensus impossibility results with quantum

Poisson average-case TSP

Efficient polynomial multiplication for mathlib

Paradoxical hiding in ROM

100

Will I be able to use an LLM to brush my teeth before 2027?

Nov 7, 4:51 PMJan 1, 10:29 AM

42.35%chance

32874

OptionVotes

YES

1159

691

When will the Tees Transporter Bridge be in use again?

Jun 25, 2:21 PMJan 1, 3:20 PM

2698

OptionProbability

After 2033

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2026

2025

Will Character AI be found responsible for teenager's suicide?

Oct 23, 1:13 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

9.42%chance

17638

OptionVotes

YES

310

Teetan Stock (Permanent)

Aug 22, 11:45 AMAug 22, 10:59 PM

9580

OptionProbability

YES

178

157

Will there be any millennial who can still pass off as a teenager when they hit 40 by 2035?

Nov 10, 9:43 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

62%chance

668

OptionVotes

YES

152

114

How many teeth will I have on January 20th, 2027?

Mar 8, 6:21 AMJan 20, 8:00 AM

30.56%chance

461

OptionProbability

YES

331

329

Will Teenage Engineering IPO or be acquired by the end of 2028?

May 2, 7:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.83%chance

441

OptionVotes

YES

140

Will Feng Timo still be able to pass off as a teenager when she hits 40?

Nov 10, 7:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.22%chance

325

OptionVotes

YES

121

101

Will Feng Timo still be able to pass off as a teenager when she hits 35?

Nov 10, 9:42 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.02%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

TEE News

Prediction markets for TEE

Prediction markets for TEE

Prediction markets for TEE

Will I get any new cavities after applying the Lantern Bioworks strain to my teeth by 2026?

Which countries will ban social media for teens by EOY 2026?

Which of these research ideas will I publish or preprint by end of 2026?

Will I be able to use an LLM to brush my teeth before 2027?

When will the Tees Transporter Bridge be in use again?

Will Character AI be found responsible for teenager's suicide?

Teetan Stock (Permanent)

Will there be any millennial who can still pass off as a teenager when they hit 40 by 2035?

How many teeth will I have on January 20th, 2027?

Will Teenage Engineering IPO or be acquired by the end of 2028?

Will Feng Timo still be able to pass off as a teenager when she hits 40?

Will Feng Timo still be able to pass off as a teenager when she hits 35?

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