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Prediction markets for telescope

Will Euclid space telescope lower my credence in the standard model of cosmology?

Jul 23, 4:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.74%chance

321956

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6059

5939

Will the Lazuli telescope see first light before 2030?

Jan 8, 7:39 PMDec 31, 7:00 PM

44.83%chance

7696

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1109

901

Will there be HD real images (e.g. telescope, probe) of the dwarf planet Eris by 2030?

Jan 9, 3:47 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

12.5%chance

18649

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1360

886

Will humanity start building a Lunar Crater Radio Telescope before 2040?

Sep 3, 11:27 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.22%chance

17626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

962

Will the Extremely Large Telescope be the world's largest single optical telescope at the end of 2050

Oct 2, 4:20 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

55%chance

11494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

195

114

Quantum Telescopes by 2030?

Feb 15, 12:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.42%chance

11246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1015

987

Will the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope be renamed before the end of Trump's second term?

Apr 12, 5:08 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

12.76%chance

11238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

261

38

Will the Extremely Large Telescope be the largest optical telescope built before 2200?

Oct 4, 10:40 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

36.72%chance

8168

OptionVotes

YES

NO

147

146

Will the James Webb Space Telescope still be operational at the beginning of 2038?

Jan 30, 10:28 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78.93%chance

9148

OptionVotes

NO

YES

203

124

Will a Terrascope (a space telescope that uses a planet's atmosphere as a giant lens) launch and successfully perform observations by the end of 2042?

Sep 7, 11:57 PMDec 2, 4:59 AM

27.59%chance

471

OptionVotes

YES

NO

162

62

Which configuration will be chosen for the Einstein Telescope?

Mar 24, 11:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

462

OptionProbability

Triangle (one site)

Double ell (two sites)

The project will be cancelled before either configuration is chosen

Other

33

25

25

17

Will the thirty meter telescope be built in mauna Kea before 2040?

Mar 12, 6:28 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

46.61%chance

451

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

110

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