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Prediction markets for telescope

In what year will NASA's Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope launch?

Jan 7, 11:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

141172

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

Other

2029

2024

2025

46

28

12

8

6

0

0

When will the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope launch? (by month)

Apr 11, 10:07 PMNov 1, 10:59 PM

5871

OptionProbability

Before November 2027

Before October 2027

Before September 2027

Before August 2027

Before July 2027

Before June 2027

Before May 2027

Before March 2027

Before February 2027

Before December 2026

Before January 2027

Before November 2026

64

59

58

56

54

53

51

47

45

43

43

41

Will the Lazuli telescope see first light before 2030?

Jan 8, 7:39 PMDec 31, 7:00 PM

44.83%chance

7696

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1109

901

Will there be HD real images (e.g. telescope, probe) of the dwarf planet Eris by 2030?

Jan 9, 3:47 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

12.5%chance

18649

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1360

886

Will humanity start building a Lunar Crater Radio Telescope before 2040?

Sep 3, 11:27 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.22%chance

17626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

962

Where will the Einstein Telescope be built?

Apr 14, 12:39 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

7579

OptionProbability

Sardinia, Italy

Border region of the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany

Saxony, Germany

Other

Luxembourg

38

23

20

14

4

Will the Extremely Large Telescope be the world's largest single optical telescope at the end of 2050

Oct 2, 4:20 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

55%chance

11494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

195

114

Quantum Telescopes by 2030?

Feb 15, 12:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.42%chance

11246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1015

987

Will the Extremely Large Telescope be the largest optical telescope built before 2200?

Oct 4, 10:40 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

36.72%chance

8168

OptionVotes

YES

NO

147

146

Will the James Webb Space Telescope still be operational at the beginning of 2038?

Jan 30, 10:28 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78.93%chance

9148

OptionVotes

NO

YES

203

124

Will a Terrascope (a space telescope that uses a planet's atmosphere as a giant lens) launch and successfully perform observations by the end of 2042?

Sep 7, 11:57 PMDec 2, 4:59 AM

27.59%chance

471

OptionVotes

YES

NO

162

62

Which configuration will be chosen for the Einstein Telescope?

Mar 24, 11:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

462

OptionProbability

Triangle (one site)

Double ell (two sites)

The project will be cancelled before either configuration is chosen

Other

33

25

25

17

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