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Prediction markets for telescope

Will a peer-reviewed paper be published stating that the James Webb Space Telescope detected extraterrestrial life?

Jan 8, 2:25 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

4.84%chance

519463

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2304

864

Where will the next generation EU gravitational wave telescope (Einstein telescope) be built?

Sep 21, 4:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

975684

OptionProbability

it will not be decided by the end of 2027

in Sardinia, Italy

near Maastricht, the Netherlands

Other

two telescopes will be built in both locations

29

27

24

15

4

In what year will NASA's Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope launch?

Jan 7, 11:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

131162

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

Other

2029

2024

2025

40

31

13

9

6

0

0

Will there be HD real images (e.g. telescope, probe) of the dwarf planet Eris by 2030?

Jan 9, 3:47 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

12.5%chance

18649

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1360

886

Will humanity start building a Lunar Crater Radio Telescope before 2040?

Sep 3, 11:27 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.22%chance

17626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

962

Will on-site construction on the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT) start in Hawaii before 2026

Dec 17, 12:23 AMJan 1, 9:59 AM

12.5%chance

2415

OptionVotes

YES

NO

811

511

Will the Extremely Large Telescope be the world's largest single optical telescope at the end of 2050

Oct 2, 4:20 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

63.7%chance

11378

OptionVotes

YES

NO

174

146

Quantum Telescopes by 2030?

Feb 15, 12:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.42%chance

11246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1015

987

Will the Extremely Large Telescope be the largest optical telescope built before 2200?

Oct 4, 10:40 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

36.72%chance

8168

OptionVotes

YES

NO

147

146

Will the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope be renamed before the end of Trump's second term?

Apr 12, 5:08 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

21%chance

6126

OptionVotes

YES

NO

194

52

Will a Terrascope (a space telescope that uses a planet's atmosphere as a giant lens) launch and successfully perform observations by the end of 2042?

Sep 7, 11:57 PMDec 2, 4:59 AM

27.59%chance

471

OptionVotes

YES

NO

162

62

Which configuration will be chosen for the Einstein Telescope?

Mar 24, 11:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

462

OptionProbability

Triangle (one site)

Double ell (two sites)

The project will be cancelled before either configuration is chosen

Other

33

25

25

17

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