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Prediction markets for Tempo

Will Hans Niemann be a top 10 chess player before 2030?

Oct 5, 10:46 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

25.46%chance

4617992

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1420

799

Will we (temporarily) cross the 3 degrees celcius of global warming by 2026?

Jul 19, 5:02 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

2.56%chance

81015

OptionVotes

YES

NO

770

112

Will there be a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire, even if temporary, before the end of Halloween 2025?

Oct 31, 8:08 PMOct 31, 8:08 PM

14.1%chance

21799

OptionVotes

YES

NO

247

41

Will there be a vote confirmed for a united Ireland before the end of 2025?

Oct 4, 1:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3%chance

12779

OptionVotes

YES

NO

689

86

Will the European Common Frog (Rana temporaria) become extinct in the current century?

Mar 29, 10:24 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

6.91%chance

4491

OptionVotes

YES

NO

989

378

Will Trump revoke the temporary legal status of Ukrainian refugees in 2025 before the war has ended?

Mar 6, 2:16 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

62.23%chance

9466

OptionVotes

NO

YES

128

78

AGI risk will force something akin to "divine intervention" that temporarily restricts everyone's freedom by 2030

Mar 27, 10:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.79%chance

5313

OptionVotes

YES

NO

369

67

Exit valuation of Tempo Labs (YC S23)?

Sep 14, 6:35 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

270

OptionProbability

Less than $10M or bankrupt

$10M - $100M

$100M - $1B

$1B+

62

16

16

7

Will I think temporolocal peak bizarro occurred between 24' Dec 1. and 25' May 1. in context of middle 2020's?

Jan 9, 7:01 AMAug 14, 8:59 PM

33%chance

669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

302

215

Between 2024 and 2030, how many people will be temporarily or permanently displaced by floods in the Netherlands?

Mar 3, 1:34 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

341

OptionProbability

0 - 9 999

10 000 - 99 999

100 000 - 999 999

1 000 000 or more

49

17

17

17

Will Ron Wyden ever become the president pro tempore of the Senate?

Sep 11, 5:24 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

45.25%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

75

65

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