Term Structure News

Will a supernova be clearly visible from Earth before 2100 by a conscious, self-aware entity?

May 17, 3:43 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

61.93%chance

103817

OptionVotes

YES

1275

784

If Donald Trump becomes president again in 2024-2028, will he illegally remain commander-in-chief in 2031?

Aug 26, 5:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15%chance

313748

OptionVotes

YES

1029

535

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran’s supreme leader on 1 January 2027?

Mar 11, 3:15 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

41.32%chance

202793

OptionVotes

YES

1192

839

Will Anthropic have a major conflict involving its unique corporate structure similar to OpenAI before 2030?

Jan 28, 10:46 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

39.48%chance

412512

OptionVotes

YES

1014

949

Are prediction markets more accurate than polls?

Nov 28, 9:57 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

94.8%chance

101257

OptionVotes

YES

313

153

Will there be a signifikant growth of greenlands poulation after Trump offers money to each inhabitant?

Jan 9, 11:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.02%chance

7761

OptionVotes

YES

1732

578

When, if ever before 2060, will a long-term suspended animation procedure on humans be developed and shown reliable?

Jan 9, 4:09 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

6362

OptionProbability

Later than 2059 or never (question will close in 2060)

2040-2045

2045-2050

2050-2055

2055-2059

2024-2030

2030-2035

2035-2040

Will Juan Carlos I (former King of Spain) die in the United Arab Emirates?

Feb 18, 7:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.31%chance

6284

OptionVotes

YES

219

Will Russia have gone through an economic depression by EOY 2045?

Feb 25, 6:09 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

87.03%chance

6268

OptionVotes

YES

366

When will a study be conducted on the effects of DMT on cluster headaches, and if a study is done what will it find?

Oct 23, 11:41 AMJan 1, 12:36 PM

593

OptionProbability

Study that investigates short-term effects of DMT as a treatment has positive findings

Study conducted and released by 2040

Study conducted and released by 2035

Study that investigates long-term effects of DMT as a treatment has positive findings

Study conducted and released by 2030

Will Nanotechnology Enable the Widespread Use of Diamond and/or Diamondoid Materials in Large Scale Structures by 2050?

Nov 19, 1:09 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44.52%chance

590

OptionVotes

YES

176

159

Will there be a psychedelics + closed-loop TMS paper by EOY2028?

Nov 11, 11:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

56.48%chance

451

OptionVotes

YES

114

Term Structure News

Prediction markets for Term Structure

Prediction markets for Term Structure

Prediction markets for Term Structure

Will a supernova be clearly visible from Earth before 2100 by a conscious, self-aware entity?

If Donald Trump becomes president again in 2024-2028, will he illegally remain commander-in-chief in 2031?

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran’s supreme leader on 1 January 2027?

Will Anthropic have a major conflict involving its unique corporate structure similar to OpenAI before 2030?

Are prediction markets more accurate than polls?

Will there be a signifikant growth of greenlands poulation after Trump offers money to each inhabitant?

When, if ever before 2060, will a long-term suspended animation procedure on humans be developed and shown reliable?

Will Juan Carlos I (former King of Spain) die in the United Arab Emirates?

Will Russia have gone through an economic depression by EOY 2045?

When will a study be conducted on the effects of DMT on cluster headaches, and if a study is done what will it find?

Will Nanotechnology Enable the Widespread Use of Diamond and/or Diamondoid Materials in Large Scale Structures by 2050?

Will there be a psychedelics + closed-loop TMS paper by EOY2028?

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