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Prediction markets for Term Structure

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran’s supreme leader on 1 January 2027?

Mar 11, 3:15 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

75.5%chance

368304

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1755

570

Will the White House Ballroom really be a ballroom?

Oct 26, 6:21 PMJan 20, 5:47 PM

535682

OptionProbability

No, less than half ballroom etc.

Yes, more than half ballroom etc

58

42

If Donald Trump becomes president again in 2024-2028, will he illegally remain commander-in-chief in 2031?

Aug 26, 5:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.32%chance

354705

OptionVotes

NO

YES

992

792

Will a supernova be clearly visible from Earth before 2100 by a conscious, self-aware entity?

May 17, 3:43 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

62.84%chance

113842

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1300

769

Will Anthropic have a major conflict involving its unique corporate structure similar to OpenAI before 2030?

Jan 28, 10:46 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

39.48%chance

412512

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1014

949

Outcome of Operation Epic Fury (Iran 2026):

Mar 12, 3:08 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

191671

OptionProbability

Unyielding Islamic Regime

Deal with minimal concessions

Deal with major concessions

Military coup (Artesh)

Popular takeover

Balkanization/long civil war

Venezuela-style puppet state

Voluntary transition of power

35

28

26

4

3

2

2

1

Will there be a signifikant growth of greenlands population after Trump offers money to each inhabitant?

Jan 9, 11:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.26%chance

7846

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1817

551

Will OpenAI AND xAI have an IPO in 2026?

Jan 3, 9:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.34%chance

22606

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

17

What is the best way to make forward progress in theoretical physics?

May 20, 10:57 AMMay 11, 1:59 PM

11346

OptionProbability

String theory

Some other approach

Loop quantum gravity

Twistor theory

General work on quantum field theories

No progress is possible

Application of fisher information to physics

80

15

1

1

1

1

0

Will the U3O8 spot price exceed $50 per pound on September 29, 2026?

Mar 2, 9:11 PMSep 29, 9:09 PM

87.11%chance

2160

OptionVotes

NO

YES

260

38

Will the U3O8 spot price exceed $60 per pound on August 29, 2026?

Mar 2, 9:10 PMAug 29, 9:09 PM

86.21%chance

2150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

250

40

Will there be a psychedelics + closed-loop TMS paper by EOY2028?

Nov 11, 11:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.64%chance

458

OptionVotes

NO

YES

124

81

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