Terminal News

Will the Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill become law?

Nov 12, 1:15 PMDec 19, 11:59 PM

15.89%chance

228019

OptionVotes

YES

2301

435

Will Anthropic’s next Sonnet model exceed 65% on terminal bench?

Jan 21, 3:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.01%chance

71783

OptionVotes

YES

990

Terminally Ill Adults Bill UK (assisted dying)

Feb 7, 2:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31099

OptionProbability

Bill reintroduced in 2026-27 session and passes both Houses

Parliament Act used in second session (2026-27) to pass bill

Bill passes Lords with significant amendments before EOY 2027

Bill receives royal assent before EOY 2027

Bill reintroduced in 2026-27 session but fails again

Bill passes Lords with minimal amendments before EOY 2027

Bill passes Lords but Commons rejects Lords amendments before EOY 2027

Bill stalls in Lords committee stage through EOY 2027

Bill rejected at Lords Third Reading before EOY 2027

Bill receives royal assent this parliamentary session

Will bounty hunters tasked with terminating rouge AGIs exist by 2049?

Dec 21, 10:29 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

9.21%chance

12581

OptionVotes

YES

1147

957

Apple to un-hide terminal by EOY 2026

Jan 17, 8:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.41%chance

7360

OptionVotes

YES

354

Google terminate access to any of its tech to Israel, citing use on Palestinians, by EOY 2026?

Sep 25, 8:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.23%chance

8253

OptionVotes

YES

281

Apple to un-hide terminal by EOY 2027

Feb 19, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.43%chance

2210

OptionVotes

YES

310

Exit valuation of Terminal (YC S23)?

Sep 14, 6:38 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

380

OptionProbability

Less than $10M or bankrupt

$10M - $100M

$100M - $1B

$1B+

Will NYC Port Authority's new $10B Midtown bus terminal be open by EOY 2032?

Feb 3, 7:59 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

28.4%chance

755

OptionVotes

YES

203

120

Will the terminal UI be the default interface for Claude code on 1 Jan 2027?

Feb 7, 7:42 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

70.61%chance

255

OptionVotes

YES

155

Will an action transformer model make it finally to batch-ask questions from a .txt to Manifold Markets via terminal?

Mar 10, 11:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41%chance

433

OptionVotes

YES

117

103

Will the PRC terminate ECFA before 2028?

Jan 20, 5:27 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

49.14%chance

312

OptionVotes

YES

100

Terminal News

Prediction markets for Terminal

Prediction markets for Terminal

Prediction markets for Terminal

Will the Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill become law?

Will Anthropic’s next Sonnet model exceed 65% on terminal bench?

Terminally Ill Adults Bill UK (assisted dying)

Will bounty hunters tasked with terminating rouge AGIs exist by 2049?

Apple to un-hide terminal by EOY 2026

Google terminate access to any of its tech to Israel, citing use on Palestinians, by EOY 2026?

Apple to un-hide terminal by EOY 2027

Exit valuation of Terminal (YC S23)?

Will NYC Port Authority's new $10B Midtown bus terminal be open by EOY 2032?

Will the terminal UI be the default interface for Claude code on 1 Jan 2027?

Will an action transformer model make it finally to batch-ask questions from a .txt to Manifold Markets via terminal?

Will the PRC terminate ECFA before 2028?

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