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Prediction markets for Terminal

Will the Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill become law?

Nov 12, 1:15 PMDec 19, 11:59 PM

82.98%chance

206335

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2208

453

Grok adds terminate conversation button by 3/1/26?

Aug 17, 1:02 PMMar 1, 11:59 PM

23.26%chance

482981

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1817

551

Will Anthropic’s next Sonnet model exceed 65% on terminal bench?

Jan 21, 3:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.54%chance

5652

OptionVotes

NO

YES

163

62

Will bounty hunters tasked with terminating rouge AGIs exist by 2049?

Dec 21, 10:29 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

9.21%chance

12581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1147

957

Will the Oakland A’s break ground on a stadium at Howard Terminal before January 1, 2028?

Feb 12, 2:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.71%chance

7536

OptionVotes

YES

NO

506

85

Apple to un-hide terminal by EOY 2026

Jan 17, 8:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.41%chance

7360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

354

28

Google terminate access to any of its tech to Israel, citing use on Palestinians, by EOY 2026?

Sep 25, 8:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.22%chance

7228

OptionVotes

YES

NO

256

39

Exit valuation of Terminal (YC S23)?

Sep 14, 6:38 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

380

OptionProbability

Less than $10M or bankrupt

$10M - $100M

$100M - $1B

$1B+

64

17

11

9

Will NYC Port Authority's new $10B Midtown bus terminal be open by EOY 2032?

Feb 3, 7:59 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

28.4%chance

755

OptionVotes

YES

NO

203

120

Will an action transformer model make it finally to batch-ask questions from a .txt to Manifold Markets via terminal?

Mar 10, 11:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41%chance

433

OptionVotes

YES

NO

117

103

Will the PRC terminate ECFA before 2028?

Jan 20, 5:27 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

49.14%chance

312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

100

98

Will an action transformer model [or Claude] make it finally to batch-ask questions from a .txt to Quora via terminal?

Mar 10, 11:30 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

58.19%chance

211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

99

83

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