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Prediction markets for Terminator

Will Trump terminate any of Elon Musk's government contracts before 2026?

Jun 5, 9:12 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.82%chance

466619

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1807

144

Will the Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill become law?

Nov 12, 1:15 PMDec 19, 11:59 PM

85.07%chance

206259

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2387

419

Will Bloomberg terminals have a Manifold integration before 2026?

Aug 28, 7:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

4.49%chance

515866

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4764

1050

When will the next terminal launch of an orbital rocket that results in a fatality occur?

Mar 21, 4:56 AMMar 29, 3:59 AM

11661

OptionProbability

2027

Other

2026

2030

2028

2029

2025

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2024

12

11

10

10

9

9

8

6

6

5

5

5

4

Will bounty hunters tasked with terminating rouge AGIs exist by 2049?

Dec 21, 10:29 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

9.21%chance

12581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1147

957

Will the Oakland A’s break ground on a stadium at Howard Terminal before January 1, 2028?

Feb 12, 2:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.71%chance

7536

OptionVotes

YES

NO

506

85

LNG import/export terminal destroyed for any reason before 2026.

Oct 1, 3:11 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

44%chance

12171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1006

993

Exit valuation of Terminal (YC S23)?

Sep 14, 6:38 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

380

OptionProbability

Less than $10M or bankrupt

$10M - $100M

$100M - $1B

$1B+

64

17

11

9

Will NYC Port Authority's new $10B Midtown bus terminal be open by EOY 2032?

Feb 3, 7:59 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

28.4%chance

755

OptionVotes

YES

NO

203

120

Will an action transformer model make it finally to batch-ask questions from a .txt to Manifold Markets via terminal?

Mar 10, 11:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41%chance

433

OptionVotes

YES

NO

117

103

Will the PRC terminate ECFA before 2028?

Jan 20, 5:27 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

49.64%chance

311

OptionVotes

NO

YES

90

90

Will an action transformer model [or Claude] make it finally to batch-ask questions from a .txt to Quora via terminal?

Mar 10, 11:30 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

58.19%chance

211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

99

83

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