Terminator News

Will the Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill become law?

Nov 12, 1:15 PMDec 19, 11:59 PM

18.83%chance

268438

OptionVotes

YES

2008

375

Will Anthropic’s next Sonnet model exceed 65% on terminal bench?

Jan 21, 3:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.7%chance

84874

OptionVotes

YES

305

Terminally Ill Adults Bill UK (assisted dying)

Feb 7, 2:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51861

OptionProbability

Bill reintroduced in 2026-27 session and passes both Houses

Parliament Act used in second session (2026-27) to pass bill

Bill reintroduced in 2026-27 session but fails again

Bill rejected at Lords Third Reading before EOY 2027

Bill stalls in Lords committee stage through EOY 2027

Bill passes Lords with significant amendments before EOY 2027

Bill receives royal assent before EOY 2027

Bill passes Lords with minimal amendments before EOY 2027

Bill passes Lords but Commons rejects Lords amendments before EOY 2027

Bill receives royal assent this parliamentary session

When will the next terminal launch of an orbital rocket that results in a fatality occur?

Mar 21, 4:56 AMMar 29, 3:59 AM

121161

OptionProbability

2027

Other

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2026

2033

2034

2035

2024

2025

Will bounty hunters tasked with terminating rouge AGIs exist by 2049?

Dec 21, 10:29 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

9.21%chance

12581

OptionVotes

YES

1147

957

Will the Oakland A’s break ground on a stadium at Howard Terminal before January 1, 2028?

Feb 12, 2:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.71%chance

7536

OptionVotes

YES

506

Apple to un-hide terminal by EOY 2026

Jan 17, 8:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.41%chance

7360

OptionVotes

YES

354

Google terminate access to any of its tech to Israel, citing use on Palestinians, by EOY 2026?

Sep 25, 8:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.23%chance

8253

OptionVotes

YES

281

Will the terminal UI be the default interface for Claude code on 1 Jan 2027?

Feb 7, 7:42 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

38%chance

4239

OptionVotes

YES

128

Apple to un-hide terminal by EOY 2027

Feb 19, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10%chance

2220

OptionVotes

YES

300

Will NYC Port Authority's new $10B Midtown bus terminal be open by EOY 2032?

Feb 3, 7:59 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

28.4%chance

755

OptionVotes

YES

203

120

Will an action transformer model make it finally to batch-ask questions from a .txt to Manifold Markets via terminal?

Mar 10, 11:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41%chance

433

OptionVotes

YES

117

103

Terminator News

Prediction markets for Terminator

Prediction markets for Terminator

Prediction markets for Terminator

Will the Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill become law?

Will Anthropic’s next Sonnet model exceed 65% on terminal bench?

Terminally Ill Adults Bill UK (assisted dying)

When will the next terminal launch of an orbital rocket that results in a fatality occur?

Will bounty hunters tasked with terminating rouge AGIs exist by 2049?

Will the Oakland A’s break ground on a stadium at Howard Terminal before January 1, 2028?

Apple to un-hide terminal by EOY 2026

Google terminate access to any of its tech to Israel, citing use on Palestinians, by EOY 2026?

Will the terminal UI be the default interface for Claude code on 1 Jan 2027?

Apple to un-hide terminal by EOY 2027

Will NYC Port Authority's new $10B Midtown bus terminal be open by EOY 2032?

Will an action transformer model make it finally to batch-ask questions from a .txt to Manifold Markets via terminal?

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