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Prediction markets for Terminator

Will Bloomberg terminals have a Manifold integration before 2026?

Aug 28, 7:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3.03%chance

5621084

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6673

978

Will Trump terminate any of Elon Musk's government contracts before 2026?

Jun 5, 9:12 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.63%chance

5711844

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2218

76

Will the Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill become law?

Nov 12, 1:15 PMDec 19, 11:59 PM

86.33%chance

206280

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2513

398

Will Waymo give public driverless rides to/from SJC airport terminal area by the end of 2025?

Oct 28, 5:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

92.24%chance

95462

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3448

290

Claude Opus wrong to terminate conversation?

Aug 15, 7:57 PMDec 31, 8:51 PM

19.37%chance

584260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2040

490

Grok adds terminate conversation button by 3/1/26?

Aug 17, 1:02 PMMar 1, 11:59 PM

40.98%chance

402283

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

833

LNG import/export terminal destroyed for any reason before 2026.

Oct 1, 3:11 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

12.97%chance

151724

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2540

475

Will bounty hunters tasked with terminating rouge AGIs exist by 2049?

Dec 21, 10:29 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

9.21%chance

12581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1147

957

Will the Oakland A’s break ground on a stadium at Howard Terminal before January 1, 2028?

Feb 12, 2:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.71%chance

7536

OptionVotes

YES

NO

506

85

Will an action transformer model make it finally to batch-ask questions from a .txt to Manifold Markets via terminal?

Mar 10, 11:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41%chance

433

OptionVotes

YES

NO

117

103

Will the PRC terminate ECFA before 2028?

Jan 20, 5:27 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

49.64%chance

311

OptionVotes

NO

YES

90

90

Will an action transformer model [or Claude] make it finally to batch-ask questions from a .txt to Quora via terminal?

Mar 10, 11:30 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

58.19%chance

211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

99

83

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