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Prediction markets for Terms of Service

Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?

Aug 10, 3:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

81.31%chance

93929

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1134

954

Will SpaceX be nationalized during Trump's second term?

Jun 5, 9:53 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

6.38%chance

223566

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3830

261

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

979

Trump dies in 2026.

Jan 3, 8:51 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7%chance

322902

OptionVotes

YES

NO

365

27

Will Waymo give public driverless rides to/from SFO airport pickup/dropoff/terminal area by the end of 2026?

Sep 17, 8:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.06%chance

172343

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1063

941

Will AI music generation have regressed between Halloween 2025 and 2026?

Oct 31, 11:55 AMOct 31, 10:59 PM

20.73%chance

121806

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1955

511

Will I make 10k mana in profit on manifold market before 2027

Mar 4, 5:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.06%chance

131094

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1777

563

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

Mar 19, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.97%chance

11799

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1364

733

Will Michigan HB 4938 (“Anticorruption of Public Morals Act”) become law with its VPN ban intact by the end of 2026?

Nov 23, 11:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.35%chance

3515

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1515

660

Will Massachusetts East-West rail be under construction before 2027?

Mar 13, 12:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.74%chance

9275

OptionVotes

YES

NO

511

171

Will Anthropic explicitly ban competing models from using Claude Code before July 1st 2026?

Feb 12, 2:30 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

18.49%chance

12179

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

91

In what year will India's GDP PPP reach that of the United States?

Jun 9, 12:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

471

OptionProbability

2040-2044

2035-2039

2045-2049

2050-2054

2055-2060

2030-2034

21

19

19

19

13

8

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