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Prediction markets for Terms of Service

Will the White House Ballroom really be a ballroom?

Oct 26, 6:21 PMJan 20, 5:47 PM

535682

OptionProbability

No, less than half ballroom etc.

Yes, more than half ballroom etc

58

42

Will I make 10k mana in profit on manifold market before 2027

Mar 4, 5:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.86%chance

174458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2394

418

Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?

Aug 10, 3:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

81.31%chance

93929

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1134

954

Will SpaceX be nationalized during Trump's second term?

Jun 5, 9:53 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

6.38%chance

223566

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3830

261

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

75.68%chance

173564

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1159

926

Will Waymo give public driverless rides to/from SFO airport pickup/dropoff/terminal area by the end of 2026?

Sep 17, 8:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.24%chance

182595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

909

Will AI music generation have regressed between Halloween 2025 and 2026?

Oct 31, 11:55 AMOct 31, 10:59 PM

19.14%chance

131906

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2055

487

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

Mar 19, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.96%chance

131199

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1689

592

[Carlini questions] SOTA AI scores better than X% of other participants in competitive programming contest by 2030

Mar 24, 2:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7632

OptionProbability

100%

95 - 99.9%

0 - 19.9%

20 - 39.9%

40 - 59.9%

60 - 79.9%

80 - 94.9%

81

10

2

2

2

2

2

Will Michigan HB 4938 (“Anticorruption of Public Morals Act”) become law with its VPN ban intact by the end of 2026?

Nov 23, 11:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.35%chance

3515

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1515

660

In what year will India's GDP PPP reach that of the United States?

Jun 9, 12:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

471

OptionProbability

2040-2044

2035-2039

2045-2049

2050-2054

2055-2060

2030-2034

21

19

19

19

13

8

Will Polymarket refund a million dollars on any market before 2028?

Jun 18, 12:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.21%chance

255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1055

991

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