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Prediction markets for Terms of Service

Will the White House Ballroom really be a ballroom?

Oct 26, 6:21 PMJan 20, 5:47 PM

535682

OptionProbability

No, less than half ballroom etc.

Yes, more than half ballroom etc

58

42

Will Waymo give public driverless rides to/from SFO airport pickup/dropoff/terminal area by the end of 2026?

Sep 17, 8:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.28%chance

224960

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2805

357

Will I make 10k mana in profit on manifold market before 2027

Mar 4, 5:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.6%chance

194725

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2521

397

Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?

Aug 10, 3:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

81.31%chance

93929

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1134

954

Will SpaceX be nationalized during Trump's second term?

Jun 5, 9:53 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

6.38%chance

223566

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3830

261

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

75.68%chance

173564

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1159

926

Will AI music generation have regressed between Halloween 2025 and 2026?

Oct 31, 11:55 AMOct 31, 10:59 PM

7.82%chance

143520

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3434

291

Will Donald Trump be assassinated before the end of his presidency?

Apr 5, 1:52 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

7.83%chance

473144

OptionVotes

YES

NO

343

29

Will Michigan HB 4938 (“Anticorruption of Public Morals Act”) become law with its VPN ban intact by the end of 2026?

Nov 23, 11:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.5%chance

62087

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3087

324

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

Mar 19, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.39%chance

131949

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2439

410

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Jul 22, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.91%chance

7487

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1319

797

Will Polymarket refund a million dollars on any market before 2028?

Jun 18, 12:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.16%chance

5199

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1035

823

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