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Terms of Service

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Prediction markets for Terms of Service

Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?

Aug 10, 3:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

81.31%chance

93929

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1134

954

Will SpaceX be nationalized during Trump's second term?

Jun 5, 9:53 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

6.38%chance

223566

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3830

261

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

979

Will Waymo give public driverless rides to/from SFO airport pickup/dropoff/terminal area by the end of 2026?

Sep 17, 8:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.06%chance

172343

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1063

941

Will Donald Trump be assassinated before the end of his presidency?

Apr 5, 1:52 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

12%chance

361722

OptionVotes

YES

NO

271

37

Will AI music generation have regressed between Halloween 2025 and 2026?

Oct 31, 11:55 AMOct 31, 10:59 PM

22.79%chance

101691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1840

543

Will Michigan HB 4938 (“Anticorruption of Public Morals Act”) become law with its VPN ban intact by the end of 2026?

Nov 23, 11:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.35%chance

3515

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1515

660

AI reduces public cloud spending by end of 2027?

Nov 6, 5:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.62%chance

6331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

170

59

In what year will Remote Labor Index automation rate reaches 80%?

Dec 12, 11:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4248

OptionProbability

2027

2026

2028

2025

2029

Other

2030 or later

76

14

3

2

2

2

1

Will the UK require biometric ID (e.g. facial recognition or digital fingerprinting) for NHS access by 2030?

Jul 21, 10:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.72%chance

5164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

179

56

[Carlini questions] SOTA AI scores better than X% of other participants in competitive programming contest by 2027

Mar 24, 2:09 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

1130

OptionProbability

100%

95 - 99.9%

0 - 19.9%

20 - 39.9%

40 - 59.9%

60 - 79.9%

80 - 94.9%

64

20

3

3

3

3

3

When will conscripted Ukrainians be able to demobilize?

Mar 18, 11:06 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

7119

OptionProbability

Until EOY 2027

Until EOY 2028

Until EOY 2026

Until EOY 2025

68

66

64

0

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