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Prediction markets for Tesla

Will Tesla have more fully autonomous rides in 2025 than Waymo?

May 22, 12:37 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2.98%chance

205508701

OptionVotes

YES

NO

38159

2279

Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?

Jun 11, 5:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55%chance

162128790

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11055

9045

Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 2000 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - base case)

Apr 21, 4:34 AMDec 31, 6:00 PM

6%chance

5392680

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2685

792

Will there be over 1000 Optimus robots working at Tesla before 2026?

Jun 16, 9:26 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

1.99%chance

16284603

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7015

143

Will there be a functional Tesla bot in Mars by 2034?

Jan 23, 12:10 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

33%chance

7173836

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1019

880

Will Elon Musk cease to be CEO of Tesla in 2025?

Jan 15, 11:09 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

1.3%chance

11671135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9675

576

On December 31, 2025, will Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto as a payment?

Jan 22, 3:28 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3.84%chance

5756104

OptionVotes

YES

NO

54214

4018

Will Gavin Baker's forecast that it'll be abjectly humiliating for everyone who is a Tesla FSD skeptic hold?

Aug 27, 8:13 PMFeb 2, 2:59 AM

5653619

OptionProbability

18-months (27th Jan 2026)

6 months (27th Jan 2025)

12 months (27th Aug 2025)

11

0

0

Will Elon Musk get more than half of his 2018 $55 billion Tesla pay package

Jan 31, 4:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

77.82%chance

6829932

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1322

837

Tesla completes 20,000+ rideshare rides per week before April 2026?

May 1, 12:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.6%chance

2515573

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1267

789

Will Tesla deliver over 2 million vehicles in the calendar year 2025?

Feb 29, 3:38 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

0.05%chance

193684

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3321

1

Will Tesla (TSLA) reach $666 in 2025?

May 3, 6:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

0.07%chance

202366

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3899

3

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