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Prediction markets for Tesla Bot

Will there be a functional Tesla bot in Mars by 2034?

Jan 23, 12:10 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

28.08%chance

7774340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1036

951

Will the Tesla Bot be available by 2028?

Oct 2, 1:11 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

23.65%chance

5810324

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1687

619

In what year will Tesla start mass production of its Optimus Bot

Jan 8, 12:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

387890

OptionProbability

Other

>2030

2026

2024

2025

51

38

9

1

1

When will Tesla bots be commercially available?

Jul 28, 1:00 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

241362

OptionProbability

Later than 2027

2027

2026

2024

2025

2023

75

21

2

1

1

0

Human Controls Tesla Bot Humanoid Robot Via Neuralink by 2030

Mar 26, 6:18 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

72.61%chance

241276

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1757

568

[Metaculus] Will Tesla be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2027?

Jan 27, 7:19 PMJan 2, 12:00 AM

41.7%chance

161148

OptionVotes

NO

YES

193

76

Will there be a robot uprising by 2035?

Dec 21, 10:57 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

9.8%chance

30869

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1418

915

Will 10% or more of the top 20 biggest companies today still be in the top 20 in 2050?

Apr 17, 7:54 PMDec 14, 12:00 PM

72%chance

14346

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

949

When will Tesla bots be commercially available (2)?

Jul 28, 11:19 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

9288

OptionProbability

Later than 2031

2028

2029

2030

Earlier than 2028

2031

65

9

8

8

7

3

[Metaculus] Before 2032, will we see 1k deaths or $200B in economic damage caused by AI malfunction?

Mar 13, 6:48 AMJan 2, 11:00 AM

32.63%chance

6265

OptionVotes

YES

NO

217

148

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