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Prediction markets for Tesla Bot

Will there be a functional Tesla bot in Mars by 2034?

Jan 23, 12:10 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

30%chance

7173926

OptionVotes

NO

YES

978

970

Will the Tesla Bot be available by 2028?

Oct 2, 1:11 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

25.28%chance

5810298

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1608

645

In what year will Tesla start mass production of its Optimus Bot

Jan 8, 12:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

365695

OptionProbability

Other

>2030

2026

2025

2024

60

26

9

5

1

Human Controls Tesla Bot Humanoid Robot Via Neuralink by 2030

Mar 26, 6:18 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

72.61%chance

241276

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1757

568

[Metaculus] Will Tesla be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2027?

Jan 27, 7:19 PMJan 2, 12:00 AM

24%chance

15962

OptionVotes

NO

YES

161

144

When will Tesla bots be commercially available?

Jul 28, 1:00 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

23957

OptionProbability

Later than 2027

2027

2026

2025

2023

2024

74

19

3

2

0

0

Will there be a robot uprising by 2035?

Dec 21, 10:57 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

9.57%chance

28849

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1449

912

Will 10% or more of the top 20 biggest companies today still be in the top 20 in 2050?

Apr 17, 7:54 PMDec 14, 12:00 PM

72%chance

14346

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

949

When will Tesla bots be commercially available (2)?

Jul 28, 11:19 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

7269

OptionProbability

Later than 2031

Earlier than 2028

2028

2029

2030

2031

74

9

6

4

4

4

[Metaculus] Before 2032, will we see 1k deaths or $200B in economic damage caused by AI malfunction?

Mar 13, 6:48 AMJan 2, 11:00 AM

32.63%chance

6265

OptionVotes

YES

NO

217

148

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