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Prediction markets for Tesla Optimus

Will there be over 10,000 Optimus robots working at Tesla before 2027?

Oct 13, 9:55 PMDec 31, 1:29 PM

4.5%chance

10028972

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4608

217

In what year will Tesla start mass production of its Optimus Bot

Jan 8, 12:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

387261

OptionProbability

Other

>2030

2026

2025

2024

49

35

13

2

1

Will it be possible to buy Tesla Optimus humanoid robot before 2030?

Oct 5, 8:50 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

45%chance

394669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1301

580

Will Tesla Optimus Gen-2 be available for Sale General Availability (GA) by 2026?

Jan 16, 5:02 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.12%chance

183337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2538

537

In what year will it first become possible to order a Tesla Optimus?

Jan 8, 12:52 PMJan 14, 10:59 PM

113134

OptionProbability

Other

2025

2024

99

1

0

Will Tesla Optimus robot commit a crime before year 2028? 🦾

May 23, 2:42 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

16.06%chance

212342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1745

782

What year will the 1,000,000th Tesla Optimus Humanoid Robot be built?

Sep 26, 1:58 PMDec 31, 1:29 PM

182341

OptionProbability

2030+

2028

2024-2027

2029

85

6

5

4

Will robots (think Tesla’s Optimus) replace retail workers by 2030?

Jan 19, 7:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.12%chance

22979

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1413

883

Will Optimus robot be able to change a tire on a Tesla car before 2028 ?

Mar 4, 10:03 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

39.39%chance

9522

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145

100

Will Optimus generate more revenue than cars for Tesla at any point before 2030?

Sep 25, 12:05 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

16%chance

11338

OptionVotes

YES

NO

377

124

Will Tesla Optimus Gen-2 be available for Sale General Availability (GA) by 2027?

Jan 16, 5:03 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35%chance

7302

OptionVotes

YES

NO

182

42

Will Tesla sell Optimus robots to the public by the end of 2027?

Jan 22, 9:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.78%chance

557

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

64

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