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Prediction markets for Tesla Optimus

Will there be over 1000 Optimus robots working at Tesla before 2026?

Jun 16, 9:26 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

16.37%chance

15568163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2260

442

Will there be over 10,000 Optimus robots working at Tesla before 2027?

Oct 13, 9:55 PMDec 31, 1:29 PM

16.41%chance

7112016

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2257

443

In what year will Tesla start mass production of its Optimus Bot

Jan 8, 12:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

284360

OptionProbability

Other

2026

>2030

2025

2024

63

26

6

5

1

Will Tesla Optimus Gen-2 be available for Sale General Availability (GA) by 2025?

Jan 16, 5:01 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3.32%chance

124092

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4863

633

Will Tesla Optimus robot commit a crime before year 2028? 🦾

May 23, 2:42 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

16.06%chance

212342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1745

782

Will it be possible to buy Tesla Optimus humanoid robot before 2030?

Oct 5, 8:50 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

78.98%chance

341949

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1555

760

In what year will it first become possible to order a Tesla Optimus?

Jan 8, 12:52 PMJan 14, 10:59 PM

8854

OptionProbability

Other

2025

2024

77

22

1

Will robots (think Tesla’s Optimus) replace retail workers by 2030?

Jan 19, 7:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.8%chance

19629

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1063

964

Will Tesla Optimus Gen-2 be available for Sale General Availability (GA) by 2026?

Jan 16, 5:02 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32%chance

11510

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1104

878

Will Optimus robot be able to change a tire on a Tesla car before 2028 ?

Mar 4, 10:03 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

86.12%chance

5298

OptionVotes

NO

YES

299

45

Will Tesla Optimus Gen-2 be available for Sale General Availability (GA) by 2027?

Jan 16, 5:03 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60%chance

5184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

134

86

When will Tesla have Optimus walking around in retail stores?

Dec 27, 8:44 PMJan 4, 7:59 AM

7126

OptionProbability

Never

2027

2026

2025

2028

2029

2030

35

24

21

8

5

4

3

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