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Prediction markets for Tesla Optimus

Will there be over 1000 Optimus robots working at Tesla before 2026?

Jun 16, 9:26 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

2%chance

16284783

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7000

143

Will there be over 10,000 Optimus robots working at Tesla before 2027?

Oct 13, 9:55 PMDec 31, 1:29 PM

18.01%chance

7714560

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2134

469

Will Tesla Optimus Gen-2 be available for Sale General Availability (GA) by 2025?

Jan 16, 5:01 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1.23%chance

1210092

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10863

512

In what year will Tesla start mass production of its Optimus Bot

Jan 8, 12:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

284360

OptionProbability

Other

2026

>2030

2025

2024

63

26

6

5

1

Will it be possible to buy Tesla Optimus humanoid robot before 2030?

Oct 5, 8:50 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

37%chance

362967

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1462

468

Will Tesla Optimus robot commit a crime before year 2028? 🦾

May 23, 2:42 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

16.06%chance

212342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1745

782

In what year will it first become possible to order a Tesla Optimus?

Jan 8, 12:52 PMJan 14, 10:59 PM

92072

OptionProbability

Other

2025

2024

98

2

1

Will Tesla Optimus Gen-2 be available for Sale General Availability (GA) by 2026?

Jan 16, 5:02 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.07%chance

141548

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2142

593

How much would the Tesla Optimus Robot cost to buy if it went into production?

Dec 24, 6:44 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

361212

OptionProbability

25k - 40k

40k - 100k

>100k

<=25k

57

29

10

3

Will robots (think Tesla’s Optimus) replace retail workers by 2030?

Jan 19, 7:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.79%chance

20679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1113

950

When will Tesla have Optimus walking around in retail stores?

Dec 27, 8:44 PMJan 4, 7:59 AM

8232

OptionProbability

Never

2027

2026

2028

2029

2030

2025

69

10

8

4

4

3

2

Will Tesla Optimus Gen-2 be available for Sale General Availability (GA) by 2027?

Jan 16, 5:03 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60%chance

5184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

134

86

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