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Prediction markets for Tesla Optimus

Will there be over 10,000 Optimus robots working at Tesla before 2027?

Oct 13, 9:55 PMDec 31, 1:29 PM

13.03%chance

9324308

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2586

387

Will it be possible to buy Tesla Optimus humanoid robot before 2030?

Oct 5, 8:50 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

36.94%chance

384557

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1463

467

Will Tesla Optimus Gen-2 be available for Sale General Availability (GA) by 2026?

Jan 16, 5:02 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.07%chance

172837

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2038

611

In what year will it first become possible to order a Tesla Optimus?

Jan 8, 12:52 PMJan 14, 10:59 PM

102764

OptionProbability

Other

2025

2024

97

2

1

Will Tesla Optimus robot commit a crime before year 2028? 🦾

May 23, 2:42 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

16.06%chance

212342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1745

782

What year will the 1,000,000th Tesla Optimus Humanoid Robot be built?

Sep 26, 1:58 PMDec 31, 1:29 PM

182259

OptionProbability

2030+

2028

2024-2027

2029

87

5

4

4

How much would the Tesla Optimus Robot cost to buy if it went into production?

Dec 24, 6:44 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

361716

OptionProbability

40k - 100k

25k - 40k

>100k

<=25k

51

31

15

3

Will robots (think Tesla’s Optimus) replace retail workers by 2030?

Jan 19, 7:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.12%chance

22979

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1413

883

Will Optimus robot be able to change a tire on a Tesla car before 2028 ?

Mar 4, 10:03 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

39.39%chance

9522

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145

100

Will Tesla Optimus Gen-2 be available for Sale General Availability (GA) by 2027?

Jan 16, 5:03 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35%chance

7302

OptionVotes

YES

NO

182

42

When will Tesla have Optimus walking around in retail stores?

Dec 27, 8:44 PMJan 4, 7:59 AM

8232

OptionProbability

Never

2027

2026

2028

2029

2030

2025

69

10

8

4

4

3

2

Will Tesla sell Optimus robots to the public by the end of 2027?

Jan 22, 9:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.11%chance

427

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

34

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