Tesla Robotaxi News

In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?

May 27, 4:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

10595151

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2028

Other

2029

2030

2024

Will Tesla launch level 4 robotaxis this summer?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

11.53%chance

21345696

OptionVotes

YES

2388

654

Will Tesla's first robotaxi fare be sold by the end of 2026?

Jan 21, 9:03 AMDec 31, 9:00 PM

88.65%chance

7734253

OptionVotes

YES

2288

134

Will Tesla have a fleet of at least N robotaxis actively operating by the end of 2026?

Jun 2, 8:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5822138

OptionProbability

N = 100

N = 500

N = 1000

N = 10,000

N = 100,000

N = 1,000,000

Tesla FSD, RoboTaxi, CyberCab etc MegaMarket

Apr 13, 8:46 PMApr 19, 5:59 AM

2811556

OptionProbability

Will I be able to drop my car at the entrance to a garage and have it park by mid 2026 (possibly out of sight lines)

Will I will be able to get my Tesla model Y 2023 to automatically back out of my driveway to the side of the road by mid 2026

I'll see an Optimus or other Tesla robot in San Mateo CA in public not at the dealership by mid 2028

will I still have grok in my car, through mid 2026

I'll be able to call a Waymo to my house in San Mateo by mid 2025

will I be able to use a non xAi model in the car, via same mechanism as grok, by mid 2026

US Customer takes delivery of Cybercab with no steering wheel by end of 2026

Will someone drive across the country in FSD with no human input of any kind by mid 2026

Max configurable speed for self driving will be above 85 by mid 2025

I'll be able to call a fsd Tesla vehicle to my house in San Mateo by mid 2025

Tesla robotaxi rideable in SF by the public by mid 2025

Will most Tesla-owned robotaxis use Lidar, at launch?

Jun 22, 3:27 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.36%chance

267474

OptionVotes

YES

5359

187

Will Tesla be the first to provide robotaxis in New York City?

Jan 15, 8:40 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

16.25%chance

403854

OptionVotes

YES

1002

862

Will Tesla FSD Robotaxi have a fatal accident in Austin in 2025

Jun 11, 5:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.41%chance

233463

OptionVotes

YES

2541

394

Tesla's robotaxi fleet to cover 50% of U.S. population by December 31, 2025

Jul 23, 11:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.24%chance

213241

OptionVotes

YES

3878

258

Tesla delivers Robotaxi before 2027 and MKBHD shaves head?

Jun 28, 3:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.7%chance

81027

OptionVotes

YES

1746

573

In which year will Tesla release a robotaxi?

Aug 12, 4:30 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

16565

OptionProbability

2026

Later

2025

2027

2028

2029

2024

Will Waymo and Uber die due to Tesla Robotaxi Service by 2028

Jun 23, 5:46 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

14518

OptionProbability

Waymo Dies

Tesla Robotaxi Dies

Uber Dies

Tesla Robotaxi News

Prediction markets for Tesla Robotaxi

Prediction markets for Tesla Robotaxi

Prediction markets for Tesla Robotaxi

In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?

Will Tesla launch level 4 robotaxis this summer?

Will Tesla's first robotaxi fare be sold by the end of 2026?

Will Tesla have a fleet of at least N robotaxis actively operating by the end of 2026?

Tesla FSD, RoboTaxi, CyberCab etc MegaMarket

Will most Tesla-owned robotaxis use Lidar, at launch?

Will Tesla be the first to provide robotaxis in New York City?

Will Tesla FSD Robotaxi have a fatal accident in Austin in 2025

Tesla's robotaxi fleet to cover 50% of U.S. population by December 31, 2025

Tesla delivers Robotaxi before 2027 and MKBHD shaves head?

In which year will Tesla release a robotaxi?

Will Waymo and Uber die due to Tesla Robotaxi Service by 2028

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