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Prediction markets for Test Token

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.08%chance

8138437

OptionVotes

YES

NO

27819

3071

Will a clawdbot have been proven to have exfiltrated without help from its human to another host by end of February 2026

Feb 1, 4:55 PMMar 3, 11:59 PM

44%chance

312759

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1128

886

Markers for conscious AI #2: AI uses attention schema

Nov 2, 3:14 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

5655

OptionProbability

<2030

<2027

>=2030

<2026

41

34

13

12

Will the DTCC launch their tokenization service in 2026?

Jan 7, 11:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58%chance

492

OptionVotes

NO

YES

118

85

Will the first AI to pass a 2-hour adversarial Turing test primarily use text?

Oct 2, 2:58 PMOct 10, 6:59 AM

65%chance

544

OptionVotes

NO

YES

125

98

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