Test News

Pakistan Overhauls Asia Cup Squad as India Finalises Picks for 19 Aug Reveal

4 months ago

Bob Simpson, Former Australian Captain and Coach Who Played 62 Tests, Dies at 89 After Building 1989 Ashes Team

Cricket

Obituary

Sports

Bob Simpson, Former Australian Captain and Coach Who Played 62 Tests, Dies at 89 After Building 1989 Ashes Team

4 months ago

India

Cricket

Sports

India’s Cheteshwar Pujara Ends 103-Test Career

3 months ago

Britain

Cricket

Sports

England Cricket Names 21-Year-Old Jacob Bethell Youngest Men’s Captain

4 months ago

AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]

Mar 27, 12:37 AMMar 22, 6:59 AM

10631090689

OptionProbability

2029-2030

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2028-2029

2035-2036

2049-2050

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2027-2028

2039-2040

2040-2041

2026-2027

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

2046-2047

2047-2048

2048-2049

2024-2025

2025-2026

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

49.45%chance

958695692

OptionVotes

YES

10084

9803

Will a mainstream AI model pass the stick figure arrow name test in 2025?

Apr 12, 12:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.3%chance

14627602

OptionVotes

YES

2113

473

Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?

Apr 8, 7:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.54%chance

5427446

OptionVotes

YES

1057

771

Top 5 most useful tests for AGI

Oct 17, 4:01 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

3318059

OptionProbability

HCAST - METR

CAIS Remote Labor Index

Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI)

ARC-AGI (any version)

GDPval https://openai.com/index/gdpval

PaperBench https://openai.com/index/paperbench

Opinion poll of Manifold userbase

Wozniak Coffee Test (requires controlling a robot)

Build, debug and test until its of sufficient quality, a complex piece of software like a mobile app including a backend service

Predict the output of an arbitrary set of NAND gates and inputs

Beating Pokemon games

Manually rearrange and overlap 100 random images in an image editor (with no other kinds of edits) to create a recognizable portrait

Will Ray Kurzweil win his 2029 Turing Test bet with Mitchell Kapor?

Feb 18, 8:14 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

54.54%chance

6311679

OptionVotes

YES

1000

937

Will my Nucleus Genomics DNA test reveal me to be above 5% jewish?

Apr 24, 11:26 PMApr 24, 11:20 PM

33.3%chance

187719

OptionVotes

YES

14154

7065

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2026?

Mar 19, 3:37 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50%chance

275530

OptionVotes

YES

1255

619

Will the Oscars Best Picture winner for 2027 pass the Bechdel Test? (awarded in 2028)

Dec 29, 6:46 PMApr 1, 3:59 AM

54.73%chance

291794

OptionVotes

YES

2090

1821

Will any country that is not currently known to have nuclear weapons detonate a nuclear weapon in 2026? (Tests included)

Jun 29, 8:40 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

11.84%chance

41754

OptionVotes

YES

2729

366

Will AI be able to write, compile, and unit test a single .c file to reproduce GPT-2 training from PyTorch code by 2026?

Apr 9, 4:13 PMApr 9, 6:29 PM

70.13%chance

291047

OptionVotes

YES

1107

930

Will AI pass the Rube Goldberg Turing test by the end of 2028?

Jul 18, 7:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.62%chance

12670

OptionVotes

YES

1288

777

Test News

Top stories

Prediction markets for Test

Prediction markets for Test

Prediction markets for Test

AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Will a mainstream AI model pass the stick figure arrow name test in 2025?

Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?

Top 5 most useful tests for AGI

Will Ray Kurzweil win his 2029 Turing Test bet with Mitchell Kapor?

Will my Nucleus Genomics DNA test reveal me to be above 5% jewish?

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2026?

Will the Oscars Best Picture winner for 2027 pass the Bechdel Test? (awarded in 2028)

Will any country that is not currently known to have nuclear weapons detonate a nuclear weapon in 2026? (Tests included)

Will AI be able to write, compile, and unit test a single .c file to reproduce GPT-2 training from PyTorch code by 2026?

Will AI pass the Rube Goldberg Turing test by the end of 2028?

Latest stories