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Prediction markets for Text
Will an LLM (a GPT-like text AI) defeat the World Champion at Chess before 2035?
Feb 16, 3:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
67.84%chance
453647
OptionVotes
1514
548
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky reveal the text of the conversations from the AI box escape experiment by the end of 2030?
May 27, 5:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
11.88%chance
232149
OptionVotes
2724
367
Will we have a popular LLM fine-tuned on people's personal texts by June 1, 2026?
Mar 10, 8:38 PMJun 1, 6:29 AM
47.35%chance
372082
OptionVotes
1159
771
Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026
Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
58.62%chance
362030
OptionVotes
1079
784
Would keyboards still be the primary way of text inputs to a computer for a majority of kids in 2030?
Nov 21, 11:29 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM
81.28%chance
381444
OptionVotes
1180
940
Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?
May 25, 12:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
38.95%chance
91300
OptionVotes
3864
3220
By 2028, given some text, AI can output a recording that can’t be distinguished from a voice actor, by expert listeners?
Jan 5, 10:56 AMJan 12, 8:29 AM
77.15%chance
361235
OptionVotes
1078
957
By 2028, AI can translate a text written in a newly discovered language into English as well as a team of human experts
Jan 5, 10:41 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM
23.44%chance
221163
OptionVotes
1227
889
Will LLMs' loss function achieve the level of entropy of human text by the end of 2030?
Jun 8, 9:10 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
60.92%chance
11570
OptionVotes
1249
801
Will real-time text-to-video generation be viable by 2027?
Mar 13, 3:22 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
34.81%chance
14371
OptionVotes
1016
941
OptionVotes
1053
952
Voice activated text selection supported by AI agent on Android by mid-2026
Oct 14, 3:18 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
53%chance
3151
OptionVotes
1062
942