Text News
Top stories
Prediction markets for Text
Will more people interact with AI via voice than via text at the end of 2027?
Jan 29, 12:47 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
20%chance
696533
OptionVotes
1698
722
Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026
Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
64%chance
351950
OptionVotes
999
911
2. Scaling laws will be discovered and exploited in areas beyond text—in particular, in robotics and biology.
Dec 27, 8:12 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM
61%chance
131668
OptionVotes
1251
800
Would keyboards still be the primary way of text inputs to a computer for a majority of kids in 2030?
Nov 21, 11:29 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM
81.28%chance
381444
OptionVotes
1180
940
Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?
May 25, 12:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
38.95%chance
91300
OptionVotes
3864
3220
By 2028, given some text, AI can output a recording that can’t be distinguished from a voice actor, by expert listeners?
Jan 5, 10:56 AMJan 12, 8:29 AM
80.71%chance
361185
OptionVotes
1266
907
By 2028, AI can translate a text written in a newly discovered language into English as well as a team of human experts
Jan 5, 10:41 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM
23.44%chance
221163
OptionVotes
1227
889
Will an open-source text-to-music LLM model be able to create an entire album as convincing as a human by end of 2025?
Dec 31, 3:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
25.75%chance
18690
OptionVotes
1100
951
Will LLMs' loss function achieve the level of entropy of human text by the end of 2030?
Jun 8, 9:10 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
60.92%chance
11570
OptionVotes
1249
801
Will Ashiok, Wicked Manipulator's record be broken for most text on a recent Magic card before 2026?
Sep 30, 6:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
56.78%chance
15427
OptionVotes
1162
678
Will real-time text-to-video generation be viable by 2027?
Mar 13, 3:22 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
34.81%chance
14371
OptionVotes
1016
941
Voice activated text selection supported by AI agent on Android by mid-2026
Oct 14, 3:18 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
53%chance
3151
OptionVotes
1062
942