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The Accountant News

Will electric vehicles account for a majority of new light vehicles purchased in the United States by 2030?

Aug 16, 2:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.92%chance

7145729

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1551

636

Will we see highly sophisticated AI-based aged account sockpuppet swarms before the end of 2025?

Dec 18, 6:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

89.01%chance

7230005

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3204

720

Is Syzygy on the Glowfic constellation an alternate account of Eliezer Yudkowsky?

Aug 31, 2:38 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

37.88%chance

8028756

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1058

1056

Will Bowser (@browserdotsys) reactivate his X/Twitter account before the end of 2026?

Jun 11, 7:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73.89%chance

143145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1294

111

Will the Sweden Democrats stop using anonymous accounts before the 2026 election?

Jul 15, 3:44 PMSep 13, 9:59 PM

7.55%chance

12500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3500

286

Will 50%+ of the Top Creators on the Manifold leaderboard by end of 2025 have 20K or more followers on their Twitter accounts?

Jan 26, 3:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6%chance

112362

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3280

685

When Aella has a child, the father will have a known Twitter account with >10k followers at time of birth

Jul 19, 5:09 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

67.68%chance

302169

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1494

631

By the end of 2027, will AI be able to do taxes as good as an average accountant?

Mar 4, 2:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

64.32%chance

311155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1031

890

By the year 2030, renewable energy sources will account for more than 50% of the world's total energy consumption.

Aug 6, 8:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.33%chance

13356

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

965

If I set up a Twitter account that posts a Magic: The Gathering rules question every day, will it have at least 200 followers a month later?

Dec 17, 3:34 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

74.25%chance

16326

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1184

918

If I set up a Twitter account that posts a Magic: The Gathering rules question every day, will it have at least 400 followers a month later?

Dec 17, 2:59 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

57.96%chance

14273

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1092

926

Will "Accountability Sinks" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 18, 11:31 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.61%chance

349

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1049

747

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