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Prediction markets for The Accountant

Will electric vehicles account for a majority of new light vehicles purchased in the United States by 2030?

Aug 16, 2:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.26%chance

7247679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1620

611

Is Syzygy on the Glowfic constellation an alternate account of Eliezer Yudkowsky?

Aug 31, 2:38 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

40.99%chance

8230866

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1111

974

Will Bowser (@browserdotsys) reactivate his X/Twitter account before the end of 2026?

Jun 11, 7:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60.61%chance

143215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1149

181

When Aella has a child, the father will have a known Twitter account with >10k followers at time of birth

Jul 19, 5:09 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

67.22%chance

312176

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1480

638

By the end of 2027, will AI be able to do taxes as good as an average accountant?

Mar 4, 2:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

74.65%chance

331505

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1240

880

Will we see more "verified human" accounts + increased platform surveillance by the end of 2027?

Dec 27, 6:07 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

90.63%chance

551233

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1576

999

By the year 2030, renewable energy sources will account for more than 50% of the world's total energy consumption.

Aug 6, 8:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.33%chance

13356

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

965

Which Youtube account will have the most liked video at the end of 2030?

Apr 8, 5:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10254

OptionProbability

Other

Mr Beast

Luis Fonsi

Pinkfong

BTS

Wiz Khalifa

51

22

7

7

7

7

Most blocked non-government account on Bluesky at the end of 2026

Dec 31, 9:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5200

OptionProbability

Other

Jesse Singal (@jessesingal.com)

Go4Know (@go4know.com)

Now Breezing (@nowbreezing.ntw.app)

84

7

6

3

Will Robinhood offer Business Checking accounts to by the end of 2026 to Gold or regular users?

Nov 21, 7:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.47%chance

471

OptionVotes

YES

NO

116

86

Will "Accountability Sinks" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 18, 11:31 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.61%chance

349

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1049

747

Before 2040, will the number of employed accountants and auditors in the USA drop below 50% of 2025's total?

May 29, 10:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.91%chance

220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

265

236

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