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Prediction markets for The Accountant

Will electric vehicles account for a majority of new light vehicles purchased in the United States by 2030?

Aug 16, 2:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.26%chance

7247679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1620

611

Is Syzygy on the Glowfic constellation an alternate account of Eliezer Yudkowsky?

Aug 31, 2:38 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

36.15%chance

8331058

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

1028

Will Bowser (@browserdotsys) reactivate his X/Twitter account before the end of 2026?

Jun 11, 7:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60.61%chance

143215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1149

181

When Aella has a child, the father will have a known Twitter account with >10k followers at time of birth

Jul 19, 5:09 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

67.22%chance

312176

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1480

638

By the end of 2027, will AI be able to do taxes as good as an average accountant?

Mar 4, 2:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

74.65%chance

331505

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1240

880

Will we see more "verified human" accounts + increased platform surveillance by the end of 2027?

Dec 27, 6:07 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

90.63%chance

551233

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1576

999

What will be the number of monthly active accounts on Mastodon on 2026-10-01

Apr 7, 8:46 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

31220

OptionProbability

Above 700,000

Above 800,000

Above 900,000

Above 1,000,000

Above 1,100,000

69

37

19

12

10

What will be the Highest LLM Pass@1 Score on Apex-Accounting before 2027?

Aug 2, 7:30 PMAug 3, 4:59 AM

3902

OptionProbability

70 - 79

80 - 89

90 - 100

50 - 69

10 - 29

30 - 49

Below 10

Above 100

22

22

19

15

9

9

2

2

Which Youtube account will have the most viewed video at the end of 2030, excluding content for kids?

Apr 8, 5:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22638

OptionProbability

Other

Luis Fonsi

BLACKPINK

Discord

Wiz Khalifa

Psy

Ed Sheeran

Mark Ronson

51

20

18

4

2

2

2

2

By the year 2030, renewable energy sources will account for more than 50% of the world's total energy consumption.

Aug 6, 8:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.33%chance

13356

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

965

Is the twitter account @ZachXBT ran by Edward Snowden?

Apr 2, 6:10 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

4.8%chance

5327

OptionVotes

YES

NO

373

41

Will "Accountability Sinks" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 18, 11:31 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.61%chance

349

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1049

747

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