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Prediction markets for The Accountant

Will electric vehicles account for a majority of new light vehicles purchased in the United States by 2030?

Aug 16, 2:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.76%chance

7147570

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1735

572

How many members of the 2026 USA IMO Team will have had a manifold account?

Aug 7, 12:39 AMApr 1, 11:59 PM

184697

OptionProbability

5

6

4

3

2

0

1

49

34

8

5

3

1

1

Will Bowser (@browserdotsys) reactivate his X/Twitter account before the end of 2026?

Jun 11, 7:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69.71%chance

143165

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1243

131

Will the Sweden Democrats stop using anonymous accounts before the 2026 election?

Jul 15, 3:44 PMSep 13, 9:59 PM

7.02%chance

32640

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3640

275

When Aella has a child, the father will have a known Twitter account with >10k followers at time of birth

Jul 19, 5:09 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

67.68%chance

302169

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1494

631

Will we see more "verified human" accounts + increased platform surveillance by the end of 2027?

Dec 27, 6:07 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

90.63%chance

551233

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1576

999

By the end of 2027, will AI be able to do taxes as good as an average accountant?

Mar 4, 2:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

66.15%chance

321205

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1004

940

By the year 2030, renewable energy sources will account for more than 50% of the world's total energy consumption.

Aug 6, 8:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.33%chance

13356

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

965

Is the twitter account @ZachXBT ran by Edward Snowden?

Apr 2, 6:10 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

4.8%chance

5327

OptionVotes

YES

NO

373

41

Will Robinhood offer Business Checking accounts to by the end of 2026 to Gold or regular users?

Nov 21, 7:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.47%chance

471

OptionVotes

YES

NO

116

86

Will the first account to surpass me on the Creator leaderboard be found to be a friend or alt of BTE within 12 months?

Feb 27, 6:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.95%chance

461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128

78

Will "Accountability Sinks" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 18, 11:31 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.61%chance

349

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1049

747

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