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Prediction markets for The Accountant

Will electric vehicles account for a majority of new light vehicles purchased in the United States by 2030?

Aug 16, 2:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.79%chance

7147619

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1686

588

Will Bowser (@browserdotsys) reactivate his X/Twitter account before the end of 2026?

Jun 11, 7:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69.71%chance

143165

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1243

131

Will the Sweden Democrats stop using anonymous accounts before the 2026 election?

Jul 15, 3:44 PMSep 13, 9:59 PM

7.02%chance

32640

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3640

275

When Aella has a child, the father will have a known Twitter account with >10k followers at time of birth

Jul 19, 5:09 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

67.22%chance

312176

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1480

638

By the end of 2027, will AI be able to do taxes as good as an average accountant?

Mar 4, 2:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

67.85%chance

331255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

990

980

Will we see more "verified human" accounts + increased platform surveillance by the end of 2027?

Dec 27, 6:07 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

90.63%chance

551233

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1576

999

Will Musk disable the "About this Account" feature on X since revelations that top MAGA influencers are foreign actors

Nov 23, 5:42 PMApr 30, 10:59 PM

16.62%chance

14469

OptionVotes

YES

NO

224

45

By the year 2030, renewable energy sources will account for more than 50% of the world's total energy consumption.

Aug 6, 8:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.33%chance

13356

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

965

Is the twitter account @ZachXBT ran by Edward Snowden?

Apr 2, 6:10 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

4.8%chance

5327

OptionVotes

YES

NO

373

41

Which Youtube account will have the most liked video at the end of 2030?

Apr 8, 5:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10254

OptionProbability

Other

Mr Beast

Luis Fonsi

Pinkfong

BTS

Wiz Khalifa

51

22

7

7

7

7

Most blocked non-government account on Bluesky at the end of 2026

Dec 31, 9:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

350

OptionProbability

Jesse Singal (@jessesingal.com)

Other

Go4Know (@go4know.com)

Now Breezing (@nowbreezing.ntw.app)

37

28

27

9

Will "Accountability Sinks" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 18, 11:31 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.61%chance

349

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1049

747

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