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Top stories

General Zod Actor Terence Stamp Dies at 87

General Zod Actor Terence Stamp Dies at 87

Authors

111

1 year ago

Prediction markets for The Adjustment Bureau

Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?

Mar 13, 3:40 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

36.47%chance

354297985

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7016

3431

Will Zvi Mowshowitz 'like' each of these movies?

Aug 25, 3:08 AMDec 31, 6:53 PM

2913406

OptionProbability

The Man Who Killed Don Quioxte

Brazil

The Secret Life of Walter Mitty

Mr. Nobody

The Assessment

Revlover

The Congress (2013)

Lurker

Code 3

Masthishka Maranam

The Banshees of Inisherin

The Fountain

The French Dispatch

The Square

The Artist

Swiss Army Man

Cosmopolis

Cloud Atlas

Southland Tales

Fitzcarraldo

Welcome to the N-H-K

The Grand Budapest Hotel

62

61

60

54

51

50

50

50

50

50

50

49

49

48

47

46

45

43

43

40

39

0

Will there be an attempt of a radical cognitive enhancement program with clinical trials on humans by January 1, 2030?

May 17, 11:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

36.9%chance

241876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4120

3063

Will the bureau of labor say computer programmers' (inflation-adjusted) salaries decreased between 2023 and 2030?

Jan 5, 7:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

38.24%chance

461473

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1080

817

Will it be substantially more expensive to fly in the USA, in 2028?

Aug 22, 12:47 PMAug 2, 6:59 AM

23.04%chance

261111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1150

881

Will the real US GDP grow more than 5% per year in any year before 2030?

Nov 7, 10:17 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

66.29%chance

15968

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1402

713

Will an AI Event/Consequence cause a recession by end of 2030?

Aug 14, 1:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23%chance

4864

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1830

547

If Republicans keep the House in 2026, will U.S. real GDP shrink in any quarter of 2027?

Oct 7, 2:51 AMFeb 15, 5:00 PM

32.1%chance

3125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

869

Labor: US labor force participation in December 2027?

Aug 8, 7:10 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

69.05%chance

3107

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1075

806

If Democrats win the House in 2026, will U.S. real GDP shrink in any quarter of 2027?

Oct 7, 2:51 AMFeb 15, 5:00 PM

26.66%chance

252

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

981

If a Republican wins the presidency in 2028, will U.S. real GDP shrink in any quarter of 2029 or 2030?

Oct 7, 2:52 AMFeb 15, 5:00 PM

38.07%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

968

If a Democrat wins the presidency in 2028, will U.S. real GDP shrink in any quarter of 2029 or 2030?

Oct 7, 2:52 AMFeb 15, 5:00 PM

38.07%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

968

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