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Top stories

General Zod Actor Terence Stamp Dies at 87

General Zod Actor Terence Stamp Dies at 87

Authors

111

6 months ago

Prediction markets for The Adjustment Bureau

Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?

Mar 13, 3:40 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

54%chance

316256750

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5050

5048

Will net demand for graphic designers fall by 50% or more by 2025?

Aug 10, 1:31 AMSep 1, 3:59 AM

3.66%chance

12828289

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9508

1582

Will there be an attempt of a radical cognitive enhancement program with clinical trials on humans by January 1, 2030?

May 17, 11:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

36.8%chance

241865

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4131

3056

Will the bureau of labor say computer programmers' (inflation-adjusted) salaries decreased between 2023 and 2030?

Jan 5, 7:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

38.24%chance

461473

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1080

817

Will it be substantially more expensive to fly in the USA, in 2028?

Aug 22, 12:47 PMAug 2, 6:59 AM

21.27%chance

251086

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1238

856

Will any year's US GDP reach 130% of all previous years by 2035?

Nov 3, 5:37 AMNov 10, 7:59 AM

15%chance

14920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

238

42

Will unemployment in the US be higher in September 2026 than in either September 2022 or September 2024?

Jan 4, 2:27 PMNov 1, 6:59 AM

51.16%chance

8499

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

977

Will the real US GDP grow more than 5% per year in any year before 2030?

Nov 7, 10:17 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

53.17%chance

7198

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1066

939

Will there be a significant drop in number of births in Japan during the year of the fire horse?

Dec 30, 4:19 AMFeb 4, 11:59 PM

37.72%chance

9139

OptionVotes

YES

NO

129

78

January U.S. Unemployment Rate

Jan 15, 10:22 AMFeb 6, 8:29 AM

11111

OptionProbability

4.4%

4.5%

4.6%

≥4.7%

4.3%

≤4.2%

27

20

19

18

10

6

How will GiveWell's 2027 Program salary expenses compare to 2022's?

Dec 3, 7:34 PMJul 1, 2:59 AM

230

OptionProbability

More than 150% of 2022

90-110% of 2022

Less than 50% of 2022

70-90% of 2022

110-130% of 2022

130-150% of 2022

50-70% of 2022

21

20

12

12

12

12

11

Will the Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) data series on FRED be greater than 4.5% on January 1, 2028?

Jun 1, 6:59 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.99%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

71

69

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