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The Adjustment Bureau News

General Zod Actor Terence Stamp Dies at 87

General Zod Actor Terence Stamp Dies at 87

111

1 year ago

Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?

Mar 13, 3:40 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

40.66%chance

348292667

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6468

3775

Will unemployment in the US be higher in September 2026 than in either September 2022 or September 2024?

Jan 4, 2:27 PMNov 1, 6:59 AM

91.25%chance

193883

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3229

310

Will there be an attempt of a radical cognitive enhancement program with clinical trials on humans by January 1, 2030?

May 17, 11:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

36.9%chance

241876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4120

3063

Will the bureau of labor say computer programmers' (inflation-adjusted) salaries decreased between 2023 and 2030?

Jan 5, 7:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

38.24%chance

461473

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1080

817

Will it be substantially more expensive to fly in the USA, in 2028?

Aug 22, 12:47 PMAug 2, 6:59 AM

23.04%chance

261111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1150

881

Will US unemployment exceed 5% in 2026?

Jun 4, 4:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

10431

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

65

Will the real US GDP grow more than 5% per year in any year before 2030?

Nov 7, 10:17 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

59%chance

9332

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1200

834

How many of these jobs will have a 15% or more drop in employment plausibly attributable to AI by 2031?

Feb 12, 3:22 PMJan 1, 3:22 PM

34.44%chance

876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

191

184

Will the Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) data series on FRED be greater than 4.5% on January 1, 2027?

Jun 1, 6:58 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

62.99%chance

568

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

103

Will July 2026 U.S. advance retail sales rise at least 0.5% month-over-month?

Jun 14, 5:15 AMAug 14, 12:25 PM

48.9%chance

550

OptionVotes

NO

YES

107

92

How will GiveWell's 2027 Program salary expenses compare to 2022's?

Dec 3, 7:34 PMJul 1, 2:59 AM

230

OptionProbability

More than 150% of 2022

90-110% of 2022

Less than 50% of 2022

70-90% of 2022

110-130% of 2022

130-150% of 2022

50-70% of 2022

21

20

12

12

12

12

11

Will the Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) data series on FRED be greater than 4.5% on January 1, 2028?

Jun 1, 6:59 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.99%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

71

69

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