The After News

Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?

Sep 19, 12:51 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

364508001

OptionProbability

R Pres, D Senate, D House

R President, R Senate, D House

R President, R Senate, R House - Republican Trifecta

R President, D Senate, R House

D President, D Senate, D House - Democrat Trifecta

D President, R Senate, R House

D President, D Senate, R House

D President, R Senate, D House

What party will hold the House of Representatives after the 2026 midterms

Dec 12, 2:00 PMNov 15, 4:59 AM

184303230

OptionProbability

Democrats

Republicans

Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?

Nov 7, 6:10 PMDec 1, 8:59 PM

64%chance

321236711

OptionVotes

YES

1334

750

Who will be the next pope after Leo XIV?

May 6, 3:02 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13981289

OptionProbability

Other

Pierbattista Pizzaballa

Luis Antonio Tagle

Mykola Bychok

Lazarus You Heung-sik

Pietro Parolin

José Tolentino de Mendonça

Robert Prevost

Donald Trump

No one

Giorgio Marengo

Francis Leo

Paulo Cezar Costa

Américo Aguiar

François-Xavier Bustillo

Joe Biden

(10k subsidy) 1 year after Putin, who will be the apparent leader of Russia?

Oct 24, 3:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6562202

OptionProbability

Other

Nikolai Patrushev

Mikhail Mishustin

Chaos - no clear controller of Moscow

Dmitry Medvedev

Aleksey Dyumin

Sergei Shoigu

Aleksandr Bortnikov

Sergey Naryshkin

Sergei Sobyanin

Ramzan Kadyrov

Alexey Navalny

Yulia Navalny

How many seats will the Democrats hold in the U.S. Senate after the 2026 Midterm Election?

Apr 2, 12:16 AMJan 4, 11:59 PM

5559653

OptionProbability

Other

If Trump wins in 2024, how will it affect the transition of power after 2028 election?

Jun 10, 2:47 AMJan 31, 7:59 AM

12643950

OptionProbability

6. Trump wins in 2024, opposition candidate wins in 2028 and assumes office

5. Trump wins in 2024 and the candidate endorsed by Trump wins in 2028

2. Trump wins in 2024 and dies in office or is incapacitated

7. Trump wins in 2024, opposition candidate wins in 2028, on Jan 20 some states and/or federal agencies recognize one candidate, while others — another

3. Trump wins in 2024, election process in 2028 is significantly changed

8. Trump wins in 2024, opposition candidate wins in 2028, but power transition doesn't happen on schedule

Other

1. Trump doesn't win in 2024

4. Trump wins in 2024, there is no agreement among independent observers as to who wins the election in 2028

Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?

Jun 3, 2:10 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.86%chance

4515871

OptionVotes

YES

15703

6520

What will be the “All Reviews” rating for The Elder Scrolls VI on Steam, 6 months after the release date?

Aug 7, 10:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

108006

OptionProbability

Very Positive

Mixed

Mostly Positive

Overwhelmingly Positive

Mostly Negative

Very Negative

Overwhelmingly Negative

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins)

Jan 18, 8:28 PMFeb 18, 3:59 AM

50%chance

92240

OptionVotes

YES

479

304

Will at least one of the "apocalypse markets" be resolved positively after the apocalypse?

Jun 10, 7:57 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

30.2%chance

18910

OptionVotes

YES

1022

914

If Leonardo DiCaprio has a girlfriend after Vittoria Ceretti, will she be less than half DiCaprio's age at the time?

Mar 10, 7:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

66%chance

29621

OptionVotes

YES

2161

1890

The After News

Prediction markets for The After

Prediction markets for The After

Prediction markets for The After

Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?

What party will hold the House of Representatives after the 2026 midterms

Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?

Who will be the next pope after Leo XIV?

(10k subsidy) 1 year after Putin, who will be the apparent leader of Russia?

How many seats will the Democrats hold in the U.S. Senate after the 2026 Midterm Election?

If Trump wins in 2024, how will it affect the transition of power after 2028 election?

Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?

What will be the “All Reviews” rating for The Elder Scrolls VI on Steam, 6 months after the release date?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins)

Will at least one of the "apocalypse markets" be resolved positively after the apocalypse?

If Leonardo DiCaprio has a girlfriend after Vittoria Ceretti, will she be less than half DiCaprio's age at the time?

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