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Prediction markets for The Agency

Will a purely AI-based news agency exist by the year 2030?

Jan 4, 5:17 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

81.8%chance

5323348

OptionVotes

YES

NO

986

955

Will the UK Government establish a dedicated immigration enforcement agency similar to US ICE by end of 2026?

Jun 22, 3:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.45%chance

172383

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1626

615

Will a major space agency announce the discovery of extraterrestrial life on Europa or Enceladus before 2035

Jul 28, 9:10 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.83%chance

241272

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1080

965

Which country or union will be the first to open a national agency with the goal of regulating or monitoring AI?

Mar 18, 5:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

361169

OptionProbability

European Union

Spain

Other

China (mainland)

United Arab Emirates (UAE)

Canada

The UK

South Korea

USA

58

11

11

10

8

1

1

1

0

Which space agency or corporation will be the first to successfully land a spacecraft on one of Jupiter's moons?

Apr 2, 12:26 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

5310

OptionProbability

CNSA

SpaceX

NASA

ESA

Other

JAXA

Roscosmos

33

28

17

10

6

5

0

Will the U.S Supreme Court rule that the U.S President can fire the head of an independent regulatory agency at will?

Jun 3, 8:48 PMAug 1, 9:59 PM

81.95%chance

6145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

213

47

Will any agency downgrade the US government's credit rating to AA- or lower before the end of 2030?

Sep 19, 12:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

6142

OptionVotes

NO

YES

88

85

Will a sample from the Martian system be returned to Earth by an Asian space agency before a Western space agency?

Jun 19, 8:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.2%chance

481

OptionVotes

YES

NO

155

27

Will Joshua A. Harrill still be at the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) by EOY2026?

Dec 19, 7:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.81%chance

353

OptionVotes

NO

YES

125

80

Will "Impact, agency, and taste" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 19, 9:19 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.85%chance

251

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

737

Will "Towards a scale-free theory of intelligent agency" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 17, 5:11 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.82%chance

113

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1013

998

Will "What, if not agency?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 20, 2:15 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.9%chance

17

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1007

999

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