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Prediction markets for The Agency

Will a purely AI-based news agency exist by the year 2030?

Jan 4, 5:17 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

80.8%chance

5223298

OptionVotes

YES

NO

997

905

Will a global AI watchdog be set up in London, modelled on the International Atomic Energy Agency, by Jan 1 2026?

Jun 3, 1:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.62%chance

193139

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3410

451

Will any agency downgrade the US government's credit rating to AA or lower before the end of 2030?

Sep 19, 12:53 AMDec 26, 4:59 AM

69.56%chance

132386

OptionVotes

NO

YES

230

96

Will a major space agency announce the discovery of extraterrestrial life on Europa or Enceladus before 2035

Jul 28, 9:10 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.83%chance

241272

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1080

965

When will Brazil achieve Investment Grade status according to one of the major credit rating agencies?

Oct 16, 12:24 PMJan 6, 2:59 AM

10980

OptionProbability

before March 2026

before March 2025

before June 2025

before September 2025

before December 2025

14

0

0

0

0

Will a new ARPA-AI agency be established during the 119th Congress?

Nov 21, 6:46 PMJan 7, 4:59 AM

21.54%chance

2431

OptionVotes

YES

NO

390

374

Which space agency or corporation will be the first to successfully land a spacecraft on one of Jupiter's moons?

Apr 2, 12:26 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

5310

OptionProbability

CNSA

SpaceX

NASA

ESA

Other

JAXA

Roscosmos

33

28

17

10

6

5

0

Which countries will join the European Space Agency as full members before 2031?

Mar 11, 7:38 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

488

OptionProbability

Latvia

Lithuania

Slovakia

Bulgaria

Canada

Croatia

Malta

Cyprus

55

54

52

41

36

36

31

28

Will Joshua A. Harrill still be at the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) by EOY2026?

Dec 19, 7:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.81%chance

353

OptionVotes

NO

YES

125

80

Will "Impact, agency, and taste" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 19, 9:19 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.85%chance

251

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

737

Will "Decomposing Agency — capabilities without desires" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jul 31, 12:39 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.34%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

Will "What, if not agency?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 20, 2:15 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.9%chance

17

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1007

999

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