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Prediction markets for The Agency

Will a purely AI-based news agency exist by the year 2030?

Jan 4, 5:17 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

80.8%chance

5223298

OptionVotes

YES

NO

997

905

Will any agency downgrade the US government's credit rating to AA or lower before the end of 2030?

Sep 19, 12:53 AMDec 26, 4:59 AM

69.56%chance

132386

OptionVotes

NO

YES

230

96

Will a global AI watchdog be set up in London, modelled on the International Atomic Energy Agency, by Jan 1 2026?

Jun 3, 1:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.09%chance

181589

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1860

659

Will a major space agency announce the discovery of extraterrestrial life on Europa or Enceladus before 2035

Jul 28, 9:10 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.83%chance

241272

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1080

965

Which country or union will be the first to open a national agency with the goal of regulating or monitoring AI?

Mar 18, 5:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31961

OptionProbability

European Union

Other

China (mainland)

Canada

The UK

South Korea

USA

69

18

7

2

2

2

1

Will a new ARPA-AI agency be established during the 119th Congress?

Nov 21, 6:46 PMJan 7, 4:59 AM

39.07%chance

1349

OptionVotes

NO

YES

452

202

Which space agency or corporation will be the first to successfully land a spacecraft on one of Jupiter's moons?

Apr 2, 12:26 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

5307

OptionProbability

SpaceX

CNSA

NASA

ESA

Other

JAXA

Roscosmos

34

26

17

12

6

5

0

Will any agency downgrade the US government's credit rating to AA- or lower before the end of 2030?

Sep 19, 12:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.27%chance

5134

OptionVotes

YES

NO

99

80

Will the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) lose more than 50% of its employees between EOY2024 and EOY2025?

Dec 14, 9:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

54.28%chance

485

OptionVotes

NO

YES

109

92

Will "Impact, agency, and taste" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 19, 9:19 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.85%chance

251

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

737

Will "Decomposing Agency — capabilities without desires" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jul 31, 12:39 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.34%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

Will Joshua A. Harrill still be at the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) by EOY2026?

Dec 19, 7:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

56.75%chance

343

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

87

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