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Prediction markets for The AI Scientist

AI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035

Jul 12, 12:29 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

76.02%chance

12354954

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1485

80

Is Rosie the dog's AI-designed mRNA cancer vaccine legitimate?

Mar 14, 8:19 PMDec 31, 8:12 PM

35.9%chance

18420415

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1336

748

Will I get a job through a referral before April 2027?

Aug 23, 6:50 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

52.4%chance

367049

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15737

14292

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:21 AMDec 29, 11:20 AM

17.78%chance

276710

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2154

466

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

75.68%chance

173564

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1159

926

Will multiple credible sources claim GPT-5 is sentient?

May 15, 7:20 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

9.93%chance

221931

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2199

770

Will BLS report more than 275,600 data scientist jobs in the United States in 2030?

Oct 26, 1:11 AMAug 31, 10:59 PM

75.39%chance

91260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1750

571

Do humans have free will?

Aug 19, 8:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.01%chance

361006

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1449

832

Did Alan Turing believe there was a non-negligible risk that AI would exterminate or enslave humanity?

Apr 7, 7:33 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

59.2%chance

15282

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1087

929

Will Demis Hassabis still be at Google at the end of 2026?

Sep 1, 3:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

95.53%chance

9183

OptionVotes

NO

YES

169

1

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

Dec 22, 8:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

65.02%chance

9125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

194

119

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