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Prediction markets for The AI Scientist

AI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035

Jul 12, 12:29 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

44.22%chance

8522439

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1212

262

Is Rosie the dog's AI-designed mRNA cancer vaccine legitimate?

Mar 14, 8:19 PMDec 31, 8:12 PM

56.46%chance

18119332

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

878

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

75.68%chance

173564

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1159

926

will 2026 bring a offical breakthrough in the Kurt Cobain death investigation?

Feb 11, 8:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.5%chance

132453

OptionVotes

YES

NO

351

28

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:21 AMDec 29, 11:20 AM

29%chance

171855

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1567

640

Will multiple credible sources claim GPT-5 is sentient?

May 15, 7:20 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

11.19%chance

211719

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1987

795

Do humans have free will?

Aug 19, 8:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.01%chance

361006

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1449

832

Will Google stick to the same red lines as Anthropic for the US military by EOY 2026?

Feb 27, 11:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.33%chance

20862

OptionVotes

YES

NO

218

46

If most of the economy becomes automated without us all dying, will Eliezer Yudkowsky admit that he was wrong?

May 15, 12:35 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

45.79%chance

22396

OptionVotes

YES

NO

109

92

Did Alan Turing believe there was a non-negligible risk that AI would exterminate or enslave humanity?

Apr 7, 7:33 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

59.2%chance

15282

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1087

929

Will https://www.tetsuwan.com/ Series A by EOY2028?

May 15, 1:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.96%chance

14

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

96

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