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Prediction markets for The AI Scientist

Is Rosie the dog's AI-designed mRNA cancer vaccine legitimate?

Mar 14, 8:19 PMDec 31, 8:12 PM

53.45%chance

16817650

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1072

933

AI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035

Jul 12, 12:29 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

21.87%chance

7513433

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

637

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

979

Will multiple credible sources claim GPT-5 is sentient?

May 15, 7:20 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

11.19%chance

211719

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1987

795

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:21 AMDec 29, 11:20 AM

35.17%chance

161505

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1360

738

When will we be able to chat with an AI convincingly impersonating a famous historical or living person?

Feb 5, 10:08 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

241409

OptionProbability

In 2028 or earlier

In 2027 or earlier

In 2026 or earlier

In 2024

In 2025 or earlier

55

47

35

0

0

Yann LeCun's new AI startup reaches $100M+ valuation by end of 2027?

Nov 20, 8:19 PMDec 31, 4:59 AM

67.92%chance

211112

OptionVotes

NO

YES

145

69

Do humans have free will?

Aug 19, 8:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.01%chance

361006

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1449

832

Did Alan Turing believe there was a non-negligible risk that AI would exterminate or enslave humanity?

Apr 7, 7:33 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

59.2%chance

15282

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1087

929

Is it possible that airplanes flying daily at high altitudes could contribute to or speed up the onset of a new ICE AGE?

Mar 22, 6:28 PMApr 21, 5:27 PM

66.13%chance

3240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

489

247

Will a custom podcast-creator be on the market by 2028? (details below)

Apr 11, 12:50 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

61.62%chance

7227

OptionVotes

NO

YES

267

180

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