The Apartment News

Manifold features launched in 2026

Jan 5, 11:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

215242573

OptionProbability

Merch store

Predictle / any forecasting game

Charity lottery

User calibration

Improved liquidity handling

Better Explore page / Feed

Subscription plan

Interest on all positions

Any A/B tested UI change

Perps

interesting comment notifications

Space the "X" and "Add" buttons farther apart on M.C./Set markets (or change the UI for this altogether)

Market Creator can approve/deny/vet user submitted answers to their markets

Early resolve NO for sum-to-1 multi-choice options

UI/UX changes that favor limit orders

Negative risk conversion

Split MC buckets in half after creation & trading

Market comment section search/filter

Poker

Re-implement "Unlinked Multiple Choice" as "A bunch of full binary markets that happen to be displayed on the same page"

Dependent Set/M.C. markets that can sum to 200%, 300%, 400%, and so on

An update to the loans / margin / capitalization system that Evan Actually Likes

Groups / communities

finer resolution betting near 0%/100%

First class N/A resolution

Non third-party sign in

Multiple non-Mod users can simultaneously share Market Creator powers of a market

Parlays

Clans

Voluntary jury duty for resolving contentious markets

Paid DMs

Private manifold instances

100

What's an unconventional opinion or idea that you've encountered which most people might not agree with? [FREE RESPONSE]

Oct 9, 8:29 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

6414313

OptionProbability

A person has a moral right to own a gun

We should be paying individuals to get an education instead of charging them.

GOFAI could scale past machine learning if we used social media strategically to train it.

The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.

Abusive parents should lose custody of their children

Other

Eventually, only AI should be sovereign

Some people have genuine psychic capabilities

Hardware buttons are superior to touchscreen buttons in cars

Being a billionaire is morally wrong

The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.

It is not possible to multitask

Jeffrey Epstein killed himself (>99.9% certainty)

Reincarnation is a real phenomenon (i.e. it happens, not just a theory)

Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries

Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes

OpenAI will claim to have AGI in 3 years.

The punishment of people who do bad things is a regrettable necessity in our current society, not a positive act of justice

There is an active genocide against trans people occuring in red states and it's appalling that people don't seem to care

Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development

Tech bros are really, really annoying

Capitalism has done far more harm than good

Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.

Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.

We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.

COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.

Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.

California is wildly overrated.

Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)

Free will does not exist. We construct narratives after the fact to soothe our belief in rationality.

Violent criminals must be kept apart only because they can’t control themselves. Punishing them further than restricting their freedom is immoral.

Music is a net negative for humanity

Trump orchestrated his own assassination attempt.

Democrats / Liberals are behind Trump’s assassination attempt.

Abortion is morally wrong

jskf's password is ***************

The first American moon landing was faked

There is no Dog

Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites

Cars should not have sound systems

AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns

Pet ownership is morally wrong

LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025

SBF didn't intentionally commit fraud

It should be illegal to own a subwoofer in an apartment building

There are no valid justifications for participating in war, ever

Cascadia should be an independent country

Children should not be raised in nuclear families

The fact that 80% of Manifold's users are men is a problem that speaks to the deep-seated roots of patriarchy and exclusion in STEM

Anarcho-communism is a good idea, and hierarchy is bad

If AI exterminated the human race it might not be a bad thing

Affirmative action is necessary in modern-day America

@Mira is the pinnacle of billions of years of optimization processes: thermodynamics, evolution, learning, language. The universe was created to cause me - and only me - to come into existence. If I mess up the overseers perturb&restart it.

Pigouvian taxes are great and they should be turned up to 11 to discourage activities with negative externalities [code PROPOSITION PIG]

[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include a frequent flyer levy

[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include meat and dairy

We have reached the end of history. Nothing Ever Happens.

[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include alcohol

SBF was obviously a scammer just because he's a cryptocurrency person. Rationalists were too forgiving of this just because he was giving them money.

Most young Americans would receive more benefit than harm if there were universal military conscription

The people producing fake honey (and sell it as real) are based, because they are actively working to synthesize something people want, even if they scam some people in the process.

Tarot cards are not really able to predict the future but you can learn a lot about someone by doing a reading for someone.

Mac and cheese tastes better with peanut butter mixed in

It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.

This market probably would have worked better as the new unlinked free response market.

Prolonged school closures because COVID were socially devastating.

The next American moon landing will be faked

Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated

We should give childlike sex robots to pedophiles

Having sex with children isn't inherently/necessarily bad

Cars are a societal net negative

Oversized pickup trucks should be illegal in cities

Suburban, single-family housing is immoral.

Gender equality needs technological outsourcing of pregnancy.

The UK Tory party will split into 2 parties or otherwise internally fall apart before 2026

Aug 30, 12:26 PMJan 6, 11:59 PM

1.56%chance

348156

OptionVotes

YES

6142

773

🎞️If the AFI Top 100 Movie list updates again, which films from last time will make it again?

Mar 4, 4:49 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

286636

OptionProbability

Citizen Kane

Schindler's List

The Godfather

Casablanca

Raging Bull

Singin in the Rain

Vertigo

The Shawshank Redemption

Gone with the Wind

The Wizard of Oz

City Lights

The Sound of Music

West Side Story

Lawrence of Arabia

Bridge on the River Kwai

Treasure of the Sierra Madre

King Kong (original)

Bonnie and Clyde

Midnight Cowboy

The Philadelphia Story

It Happened One Night

The Graduate

To Kill a Mockingbird

All About Eve

The Maltese Falcon

One Flew Over The Cuckoo's Nest

Dr Strangelove

Jaws

Star Wars

Psycho

2001 A Space Odyssey

Sunset Boulevard

The General

On The Waterfront

It's a Wonderful Life

Some Like it Hot

The Grapes of Wrath

ET the Extra Terrestrial

Mr Smith Goes to Washington

Double Indemnity

Apocalypse Now

Godfather Part II

Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs (original animated)

Annie Hall

A Streetcar Named Desire

Rear Window

Taxi Driver

The Deer Hunter

M*A*S*H*

North by Northwest

Rocky

The Gold Rush

Sullivan's Travels

Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring

Chinatown

High Noon

Intolerance

Nashville

Shane

Duck Soup

Network

The African Queen

Raiders of the Lost Ark

Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf

Unforgiven

The Searchers

Saving Private Ryan

A Clockwork Orange

Cabaret

Tootsie

Do The Right Thing

American Graffiti

Pulp Fiction

12 Angry Men

Platoon

Silence of the Lambs

Titanic

The Sixth Sense

Goodfellas

Toy Story

Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid

In the Heat of the Night

Modern Times

The Wild Bunch

Spartacus

A Night at the Opera

Swing Time

Sophie's Choice

The Last Picture Show

The Best Years of our Lives

All the President's Men

Sunrise: A Song of Two Humans

Easy Rider

Bringing Up Baby

Yankee Doodle Dandy

The Apartment

Forrest Gump

Blade Runner

Ben-Hur

The French Connection

Will Berlin manage to build 200,000 new apartments before 2031?

Aug 21, 3:32 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5.16%chance

193647

OptionVotes

YES

3573

684

🎞️If the AFI Top 100 Movie list updates again, what will the ranking order of films be?

Mar 3, 6:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7874

OptionProbability

High Noon

The Gold Rush

Sophie's Choice

Goodfellas

The French Connection

Pulp Fiction

The Last Picture Show

Do The Right Thing

Blade Runner

Yankee Doodle Dandy

Toy Story

Ben-Hur

The General

On The Waterfront

It's a Wonderful Life

Chinatown

The Grapes of Wrath

ET the Extra Terrestrial

To Kill a Mockingbird

Mr Smith Goes to Washington

Double Indemnity

The Maltese Falcon

Godfather Part II

One Flew Over The Cuckoo's Nest

Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs (original animated)

Annie Hall

Bridge on the River Kwai

The Best Years of our Lives

Treasure of the Sierra Madre

The Sound of Music

King Kong (original)

Bonnie and Clyde

Midnight Cowboy

The Philadelphia Story

Shane

It Happened One Night

A Streetcar Named Desier

Rear Window

Intolerance

Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring

West Side Story

Taxi Driver

The Deer Hunter

M*A*S*H*

North by Northwest

Jaws

Rocky

Nashville

Duck Soup

Sullivan's Travels

American Graffiti

Cabaret

Network

The African Queen

Raiders of the Lost Ark

Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf

Unforgiven

Tootsie

A Clockwork Orange

Saving Private Ryan

The Shawshank Redemption

Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid

Silence of the Lambs

In the Heat of the Night

Forrest Gump

All the President's Men

Modern Times

The Wild Bunch

The Apartment

Spartacus

Sunrise: A Song of Two Humans

Titanic

Easy Rider

A Night at the Opera

Platoon

12 Angry Men

Bringing Up Baby

The Sixth Sense

Swing Tie

Raging Bull

Singin in the Rain

Vertigo

City Lights

The Searchers

Psycho

2001 A Space Odyssey

Sunset Boulevard

The Graduate

Dr Strangelove

Some Like it Hot

Schindler's List

The Wizard of Oz

Apocalypse Now

Star Wars

All About Eve

Lawrence of Arabia

Gone with the Wind

Casablanca

The Godfather

Citizen Kane

Will Belgium break apart before 2034?

Sep 15, 10:52 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

8.76%chance

18746

OptionVotes

YES

1432

925

Will there be another Nintendo-themed "Land" at a Universal Studios Park apart from Mario and Donkey Kong before 2031?

May 7, 12:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

55.53%chance

9153

OptionVotes

YES

112

Average price per m² for old apartments in Paris by end of December 2027

Aug 2, 5:26 PMAug 1, 9:59 PM

366

OptionProbability

8,800 - 9,599

8,000 - 8,799

9,600 - 10,399

10,400 - 11,199

11,200 - 12,000

Above 12,000

Below 8,000

[take it apart] Jvyy Byvire unir n pbairefngvba jvgu Lbon?

Sep 17, 2:39 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

74.73%chance

561

OptionVotes

YES

151

Will at least ten students live in apartments at People’s Park by the start of the Fall 2029 semester?

Jan 6, 8:49 PMSep 14, 6:59 AM

67.4%chance

752

OptionVotes

YES

137

Apart from AI, which technological areas are you most excited about for the long-term future of humanity?

Nov 14, 9:06 PM

400

The Apartment News

Prediction markets for The Apartment

Prediction markets for The Apartment

Prediction markets for The Apartment

Manifold features launched in 2026

What's an unconventional opinion or idea that you've encountered which most people might not agree with? [FREE RESPONSE]

The UK Tory party will split into 2 parties or otherwise internally fall apart before 2026

🎞️If the AFI Top 100 Movie list updates again, which films from last time will make it again?

Will Berlin manage to build 200,000 new apartments before 2031?

🎞️If the AFI Top 100 Movie list updates again, what will the ranking order of films be?

Will Belgium break apart before 2034?

Will there be another Nintendo-themed "Land" at a Universal Studios Park apart from Mario and Donkey Kong before 2031?

Average price per m² for old apartments in Paris by end of December 2027

[take it apart] Jvyy Byvire unir n pbairefngvba jvgu Lbon?

Will at least ten students live in apartments at People’s Park by the start of the Fall 2029 semester?

Apart from AI, which technological areas are you most excited about for the long-term future of humanity?

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