The Arena News

Claude Sonnet 5 Prop Bets

Feb 3, 4:09 PMFeb 11, 5:59 AM

16142719

OptionProbability

Available in Claude Code at launch

Will Sonnet 5 be available on the free Claude tier at launch?

Outperforms opus 4.6 on any sde benchmark

400k+ token context window

50% if significantly better than Sonnet 4.5, YES if significantly better than Opus 4.5 (President's judgement)

1M+ token context window

Outperforms Opus 4.5 in WebDev on LMArena

"agent swarm" or other more sophisticated multi agent scheme released/announced with launch.

Will Claude Sonnet 5 debut in the LM Arena Top 3 overall within 7 days of release?

I will feel that Sonnet 5 has the same amount of "soul" as Opus 4.5 (or more)

AA claims it has an AA-Omniscience hallucination rate below 20%

Exceeds Opus 4.6 on both SWE-bench-pro and SWE-rebench

Any image generation tool included with the release (nano banana type thing, not gif's)

Will Sonnet 5 reach #1 overall on LM Arena at any point within 14 days?

Released Feb 13th or earlier

1.5M+ token context window

Will Sonnet 5 be #1 overall-no-style-control on LM Arena when first added to the leaderboard

Sonnet 4.x will be released, not Sonnet 5

releases today before 1pm ET (feb 3rd)

Releases today at all (feb 3)

Releases before 2pm EST

Releases before 3pm est

Releases before 4pm EST

Reseases before 1pm Feb 4th

Reseases before 2pm Feb 4th

Reseases before 3pm Feb 4th

Releases Feb 4th

Releases Feb 5th

Releases Feb 6th (PT)

Is the LMSYS chatbot arena leaderboard trustworthy?

Jun 24, 9:42 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

48.82%chance

2511131

OptionVotes

YES

10330

9674

Will Claude Opus be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard two years from today (3/10/24)?

Mar 10, 12:34 PMMar 11, 3:59 AM

5.51%chance

2410099

OptionVotes

YES

4205

460

Who will be the next Labour prime minister of New Zealand?

Oct 14, 6:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

172206

OptionProbability

Chris Hipkins

Other

Kieran McAnulty

Megan Woods

Carmel Sepuloni

Arena Williams

Barbara Edmonds

Peeni Henare

Cushla Tangaere-Manuel

Grant Robertson

Ayesha Verrall

Damien O'Connor

Adrian Rurawhe

Ginny Anderson

Willie Jackson

David Parker

Christ Hipkins

Will the recipients of naming rights money for the FTX Arena receive a demand to give their money back (e.g. to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Dec 19, 12:36 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

76%chance

91954

OptionVotes

YES

200

172

Will MTG Arena become the canonical source of rules functionality by the end of 2026?

Nov 18, 4:53 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

11.2%chance

21988

OptionVotes

YES

1741

847

Which model family will rule the LMSYS Arena in 2026?

Dec 28, 11:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4830

OptionProbability

Gemini (Google)

Claude (Anthropic)

GPT (OpenAI)

Grok (xAI)

DeepSeek

Llama (Meta)

Mistral (Mistral AI)

Qwen (Alibaba)

Kimi (Moonshot)

Test

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.77%chance

5234

OptionVotes

YES

1025

976

Will Magic Arena's card pool contain at least half of the entire Magic card pool before 2028?

Feb 28, 4:06 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

24.53%chance

10209

OptionVotes

YES

237

137

Will the LMSYS Chatbot Arena still be 'a thing' in 2027, under the same evaluation method?

May 3, 3:57 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM

43%chance

792

OptionVotes

YES

115

Who will be the number 1 pick in the 2027 NBA draft

May 20, 7:06 PMJun 26, 8:00 PM

430

OptionProbability

Tyran Stokes

Other

Caleb Holt

Christian Collins

Miikka Muurinen

Brandon McCoy

Alijah Arenas

Jason Crowe Jr.

Jalen Montonati

Jordan Smith

Anthony Thompson

Darryn Peterson

Mikel Brown Jr.

When will the Crypto.com Arena be renamed?

Nov 1, 1:01 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

36%chance

229

OptionVotes

YES

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Claude Sonnet 5 Prop Bets

Is the LMSYS chatbot arena leaderboard trustworthy?

Will Claude Opus be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard two years from today (3/10/24)?

Who will be the next Labour prime minister of New Zealand?

Will the recipients of naming rights money for the FTX Arena receive a demand to give their money back (e.g. to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Will MTG Arena become the canonical source of rules functionality by the end of 2026?

Which model family will rule the LMSYS Arena in 2026?

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Will Magic Arena's card pool contain at least half of the entire Magic card pool before 2028?

Will the LMSYS Chatbot Arena still be 'a thing' in 2027, under the same evaluation method?

Who will be the number 1 pick in the 2027 NBA draft

When will the Crypto.com Arena be renamed?

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