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Top stories

Jerusalem Demsas Raises $4 Million to Launch Liberal Journal ‘The Argument’

Jerusalem Demsas Raises $4 Million to Launch Liberal Journal ‘The Argument’

Authors

9

4 months ago

Prediction markets for The Argument

Will two twitter bots get in an argument with each other before the end of 2025?

Sep 4, 3:52 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

90.57%chance

283917

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3099

323

Will the problem of heuristic arguments still be an open problem by 2026?

Nov 22, 4:38 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

92.67%chance

173031

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3373

485

Will "What are the strongest arguments for very sho..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jul 2, 1:20 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.26%chance

3519

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1494

937

Will "Ten arguments that AI is an existential risk" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Aug 15, 4:51 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10%chance

1500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1389

948

Will "The best simple argument for Pausing AI?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 2, 3:03 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10.23%chance

3373

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1359

951

Will "The Most Common Bad Argument In These Parts" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 12, 1:18 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.89%chance

5365

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

940

Will any prominent e/accs switch sides to Notkilleveryoneism after examining the arguments in detail?

Apr 9, 9:06 PMApr 9, 10:59 PM

73.83%chance

17361

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1063

967

Will "The Best Lay Argument is not a Simple English..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Sep 11, 6:45 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.06%chance

5267

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1159

976

Will "What do coherence arguments actually prove ab..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 3, 2:12 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.16%chance

1250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

964

Which Matt Leaves "The Argument" First

Aug 22, 7:31 PMJan 1, 8:28 PM

456

OptionProbability

Matt Bruenig

Matt Yglesias

71

29

Will "What are the best arguments for/against AIs b..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 25, 11:05 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "Counting arguments provide no evidence for AI..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Mar 4, 3:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.72%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

98

Latest stories

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Aug 19, 2025
Aug 19, 2025
Politics
Business
Jerusalem Demsas Raises $4 Million to Launch Liberal Journal ‘The Argument’
Authors
9
4 months ago

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