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Top stories

Trump Tariff Fears Eclipse China Security Worries in New Australian Poll

Trump Tariff Fears Eclipse China Security Worries in New Australian Poll

Authors

12

1 year ago

Prediction markets for The Australian

When the PRC invades Taiwan will they preemptively attack US, British, Japanese, Kiwi, and/or Australian military/intelligence assets in the region?

Aug 8, 1:08 AMDec 15, 4:59 AM

41.25%chance

543032

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1379

426

Will the Australian Labor Party win a majority of seats in the House of Representatives at the next federal election?

Jul 22, 11:40 AMSep 25, 11:37 AM

57.11%chance

122456

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1155

868

Will the Australian Labor Party win a majority of seats at the next general election for the House of Representatives?

May 21, 6:31 AMJun 30, 6:29 AM

56.51%chance

6722

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1080

933

Which Australian politician was groomed by foreign spies according to the head of ASIO?

Feb 29, 3:26 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

10396

OptionProbability

Stuart Robert

Sam Dastyari

Christopher Pyne

68

25

10

Who will be the next leader of the Australian Labour Party?

Nov 3, 8:50 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

7396

OptionProbability

Jim Chalmers

Tony Burke

Other

Tanya Plibersek

Bill Shorten

Richard Marles

Penny Wong

Jason Clare

Chris Bowen

Linda Burney

Mark Butler

Katy Gallagher

Pat Conroy

Mark Dreyfus

Catherine King

Ed Husic

43

11

9

8

6

4

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

Who will be the next leader of the Australian Labor Party?

Nov 1, 8:23 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

13350

OptionProbability

Jim Chalmers

Other

Tanya Plibersek

Bill Shorten

Penny Wong

Chris Bowen

Richard Marles

44

28

11

6

5

3

3

When will the first One Nation defection or departure in South Australian parliament occur?

Mar 25, 3:17 AMDec 31, 3:15 AM

3175

OptionProbability

No members leave or defect before parliament dissolves

Before 1 July 2026

July to December 2026

During 2027

2028 or later

27

18

18

18

18

Will the Australian outback be ‘greened’ / terraformed / geo-engineered before 2100?

Sep 11, 12:17 AMJan 10, 12:59 PM

86.74%chance

4162

OptionVotes

NO

YES

176

31

Will Australia have more than 30 million people according to the 2031 Australian Census?

Feb 26, 4:02 PMOct 15, 1:29 PM

74.8%chance

482

OptionVotes

NO

YES

220

95

Will Pauline Hanson run for the house (not senate) in the 2028 Australian election?

May 25, 1:18 PMJul 1, 12:59 AM

46.62%chance

380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1070

935

Will a Liberal MP or Senator join Community Strong Australia by the next Australian federal election?

Jun 25, 1:37 AMMay 19, 1:59 PM

25.71%chance

270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

170

59

Which MPs will be reëlected at the next Australian federal election?

May 21, 5:57 AMJun 30, 5:52 AM

330

OptionProbability

Chris Bowen

Tim Wilson

Monique Ryan

Peter Khalil

66

59

59

50

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