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Top stories

Trump Tariff Fears Eclipse China Security Worries in New Australian Poll

Trump Tariff Fears Eclipse China Security Worries in New Australian Poll

Authors

12

4 months ago

Prediction markets for The Australian

When the PRC invades Taiwan will they preemptively attack US, British, Japanese, Kiwi, and/or Australian military/intelligence assets in the region?

Aug 8, 1:08 AMDec 15, 4:59 AM

41.25%chance

543032

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1379

426

Novak Djokovic participates in the Australian Open 2026 main draw

Sep 7, 3:20 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

92.96%chance

102650

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3634

275

Will the Australian Nationals merge with Australian Liberal party on a federal level, before 2026?

Feb 18, 11:53 AMDec 31, 1:59 PM

2.31%chance

51431

OptionVotes

YES

NO

650

15

Will the Australian Labor Party win a majority of seats in the House of Representatives at the next federal election?

Jul 22, 11:40 AMSep 25, 11:37 AM

71.73%chance

5709

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1593

628

Which Australian politician was groomed by foreign spies according to the head of ASIO?

Feb 29, 3:26 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

7335

OptionProbability

Stuart Robert

Sam Dastyari

Christopher Pyne

59

25

10

Who will be the next leader of the Australian Labor Party?

Nov 1, 8:23 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

12278

OptionProbability

Jim Chalmers

Other

Tanya Plibersek

Bill Shorten

Penny Wong

Chris Bowen

Richard Marles

41

30

11

6

5

3

3

Kevin Rudd out as Australian ambassador to the US by EOY 2026?

Oct 23, 11:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.02%chance

1250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

800

Will India be the most common non-Australia country of birth in the next Australian census?

Feb 27, 12:09 PMOct 10, 1:29 PM

34.65%chance

5122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

214

121

Will the Australian Labor Party win a majority of seats at the next general election for the House of Representatives?

May 21, 6:31 AMJun 30, 6:29 AM

70%chance

385

OptionVotes

NO

YES

153

65

Will Australia have more than 30 million people according to the 2031 Australian Census?

Feb 26, 4:02 PMOct 15, 1:29 PM

74.8%chance

482

OptionVotes

NO

YES

220

95

Will Labor and the Greens hold a majority of seats in the Australian Senate after the next election?

May 25, 2:30 PMJun 30, 1:49 PM

54.05%chance

680

OptionVotes

NO

YES

108

92

Will an SSN-AUKUS submarine enter service with the Royal Australian Navy before 2045?

Apr 4, 11:19 PMJan 3, 12:30 PM

70.55%chance

476

OptionVotes

NO

YES

165

76

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