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OptionProbability
Bond will be a man
Gunplay
Bond drives a car
On screen fatalities
London will appear on screen
Urban scene
Bond wears a suit/tuxedo
Car chase scene
Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer
Bond tells ≥1 joke
A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.
A named character speaks in a language other than English
Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"
Bond drinks a martini
Opening action sequence
The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.
Gun Barrel Sequence
Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.
Sex scene
World capital other than London appears on screen
Hacking electronics of some form
Q appears
Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.
Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently
Bond uses explosives
The plot will be predominantly set in present day
Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts
The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
Someone in the movie says the title
Fatal-if-missed aerial jump
A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds
Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.
Asia will appear on screen
Someone goes through a pane of glass
A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent
It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die
It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)
The main theme song will be sung by a female
There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting
"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned
Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)
@HenriThunberg enjoys the film
The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.
South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen
The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.
Bond rides a motorcycle
A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it
>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release
Critics will say it's a return to classic bond
A sniper rifle is fired
Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick
At least a portion filmed in Canada
A scene shows James Bond naked
Blue-eyed Bond
Bond wields a Walther PPK
Interracial sex scene
Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)
Jungle / forest scene
M will be played by Ralph Fiennes
Bond flys an aircraft
James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government
Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.
Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar
Bond parachutes
It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)
Bond wears shorts
Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present
>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release
Arctic scene
Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing
Death of a Bond love interest
Bond gets slapped
Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack
The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.
Prison/jail scene
A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne
Black market trafficking
Someone climbs around on the outside of a building
Released in 2028
The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.
Bond licks something
Bond and a pond shown on screen together
Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)
someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)
Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)
Bond slaps someone
Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall
James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.
A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)
Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth
Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)
There will be a voiced character that is an AI
Bond rides a bicycle
Torture
Bond receives a gunshot wound
A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens
Wilhelm scream
The title will refer to life and/or death
@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand
Bond drives a boat
A safe is cracked (any means possible)
Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)
James Bond plays poker
Bond commits arson
Nazis (neo- counts)
Cryptocurrency is referenced
Oral sex
Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen
Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time
Terrorists
US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)
Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned
Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case
Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.
Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen
A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot
Desert scene
The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)
Ski chase scene
Drug use
Someone/something is x-rayed
Thunderstorm
Dessert scene
An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)
President of the United States is mentioned
IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...
Robots
Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage
Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail
It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)
Bond has facial hair
There will be a promotional event in Fortnite
Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen
Bond wears a mask
Cocaine or caviar appears on screen
James Bond plays baccarat
Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses
Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift
Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet
Bond will be in a submarine
Bond goes to space
Bond is LQBTQ+
Bond rides an animal
James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't
Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)
Main villain speaks Russian on screen
Bond has a disability
Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage
Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)
Mexico is shown on screen
Jetpack
The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)
A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)
Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.
Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)
An EMP device plays a central role.
At least one named character below 18 years old
Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone
Canada is shown on screen
Sharks
Orgy
fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name
Will feature something that can turn invisible
A pinball machine will appear.
Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)
Underwater combat
The word "fuck" is said more than once.
With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖
Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)
The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.
Bond is blond
Pirates
Assplay
Emilia Clarke portrays a character
Bond won't be Caucasian
A hamburger appears on screen
Bond uses a VR headset
Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)
Bond has a neck tattoo
Nuclear explosion
Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine
Satanism
Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond
Bond plays Russian roulette
It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.
Gay sex scene
ChatGPT is referenced by any character
Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene
Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)
A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"
Theme song is performed by The Weeknd
San Francisco is shown on screen
Pegging
Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)
Horse cock on screen (flaccid)
Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz
A clocks shows the time 4:20
Feature Nightcore music
Supernatural entities
Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.
There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American
Bond uses chopsticks
Released in 2026
Any character says the word "anime"
Vampires
Bond vapes
The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.
Bond dies
The fourth wall is broken
Scat play
Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)
Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme
Horse cock on screen (erect)
Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).
The handkerchief code is a major plot element
James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."
Bond is vegan
It will be directed by a woman
Bond plays League of Legends
Destiny appears on screen
Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”
Dragons
Dinosaurs
It will be directed by Christopher Nolan
Bond hits the griddy
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1
OptionProbability
Team will be scoreless for a quarter
Super Bowl MVP is a quarterback
Winning team has more total yards
First play from scrimmage is a rush
Opening kickoff result is a touchback
Last play is 'victory formation'
Player spikes ball during a touchdown celebration
Player crying during national anthem
Quarterback runs in for a touchdown
Announcer says "goat"
Player gets carted off the field
Current or former US President in attendance
Announcer says "tush push"
First score is a touchdown
Both teams make 33 yard or longer field goal
Team that scores last wins the game
Score is tied again after 0-0
Broadcast uses video from pylon camera
Both teams score in 1st quarter
Failed 4th down attempt
Gatorade shower color is yellow/green
An administrative timeout is taken
Player goes into the blue tent
Winning team has more passing yards
Player with prime jersey number scores a touchdown
Rules analyst disagrees with a decision a ref made
Holding call in 4th quarter
Taylor Swift is at the game
Chains used to measure first down 1+ times
WM Phoenix Open winning score under par is higher than Super Bowl kicking points
First turnover is an interception
Head coach throws a challenge flag
Tom Brady is at the game
Super Bowl is won by a bird team
First score is a field goal
Coin toss is 'heads'
Coin toss is 'tails'
National anthem is over 2 minutes
Player flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct
Head coach or player throws something on sideline in frustration
Team scores in all 4 quarters (same team)
50+ yard field goal is made
Team scores in last 30 seconds of either half
Any player scores 2+ touchdowns
Winning margin is 10+ points
Illegal use of hands to the face penalty given
Kicker is iced
2 point conversion attempted
Team scores in the last 30 seconds of the game
Play with one or more attempted laterals occurs
Any player scores 7+ points individually
Ruling on the field gets overturned by review
All quarters have points scored (no 0-0 quarters)
Super Bowl MVP threw an interception or fumbled during the game
No penalty called in last 5 minutes of the game
Any current or former US president is directly referenced by announcer
Penalty for 'roughing the passer' is given
Either quarterback has 2+ interceptions
Tush Push touchdown is made
Injury timeout is taken
Final combined total of QB pass completions is odd
[1st half total score] > [2nd half total score]
[Total score] > [Longest field goal made]
First touchdown celebration includes acrobatics
Any player has a 60+ yard reception
Both teams complete their first pass attempt
Special teams touchdown
Onside kick attempt
Player shown eating a snack on the sideline
Jersey number of last touchdown scorer is even
Altercation occurs between a player and a coach
Trick play results in positive yardage
Both teams have a 4th quarter lead
50+ yard return
Kick is missed
Successful 2-point conversion
First drive of game is a '3 and out'
Team leading at halftime loses
Live animal enters the field of play
Any QB throws for 400 or more yards in the game
Player retires immediately after game
Backup QB gets put in the game
A player catches the ball with one hand
Player knocks non-player over on the sideline
No penalties in the 4th quarter
Any player successfully hurdles a defender
Wild Card team makes the Super Bowl
Teams are a rematch of a previous super bowl
Unauthorized person gets on the field of play
Winning team has more turnovers
At least one team has 0 points at halftime
Announcer says “hawk-eye”
Team has 5+ sacks
Final score is the same as the final score of a previous Super Bowl
[LX total score] > [LIX total score]
Streaker (fully or partially nude on field)
A player listed over 260 lbs scores a touchdown
Announcer says "stud"
Team is a first time super bowl winner
Points scored in the first 90 seconds
A player's jersey gets torn
Unauthorized person touches midfield logo
Player gets ejected from the game
Score is tied at half-time
Puppy Bowl 2026 MVP shares a first or last name with the SB MVP
Team wins by exactly one point
QB catches a pass from any player
Kick is successfully blocked
There is a doink
No rushing touchdowns scored
Pick 6 occurs
Game goes to OT
Successful 'hail mary' pass is made
Final score is scorigami
A safety is scored
Any player to score an octopus
Super Bowl MVP not from winning team
Stadium blackout occurs
Super Bowl is canceled, postponed or rescheduled (from 2-8-2026)
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9
9
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5
4
OptionProbability
Other
Michelle Obama
Barbara Lee
Deb Haaland
Kamala Harris
Gretchen Whitmer
Nikki Haley
Elizabeth Warren
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Krystal Ball
Tammy Duckworth
Carly Fiorina
Meghan Markle, Duchess of Sussex
Stacey Abrams
Katie Porter
Anna Paulina Luna
Tammy Baldwin
Oprah Winfrey
Michelle Lujan Grisham
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
Ayanna Pressley
Joni Ernst
Tina Kotek
Katie Hobbs
Kristi Noem
Young Kim
Lucy McBath
Cori Bush
Hillary Clinton
40
9
9
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Abrahamic religion
Has been to Africa
Heterosexual
English speaker (human)
A specific living individual
Catholic
Male
Photo exists of them wearing a baseball hat
White
Manifold thinks they are "right-wing"
An individual head of state (current or elect)
Blue eyes
Currently married
6 feet / 183 cm or taller
Born after Hiroshima bombing & before Macintosh 128K release
White hair
Based in Europe
Has won Times POTY before
AI-related
At least 75 years old at time of announcement
Two or more children
Jeffrey Epstein associate
Elected pope in 2025
Drinks alcohol
At least one divorce (human)
Under 40 years old at time of announcement
Blonde
Recording exists of them saying "fuck"
Is two or more people
Has Tattoo
Has used cannabis
veteran / military experience
Bald
Born in the Commonwealth
Has been accused of molesting their sister
Athlete (Professional) (can be retired)
has served time in a prison/jail for any reason
known to have been a shriner / bear / elk / mason / rotary club / lion or other social club member
...could suck a golf ball through a garden hose.
Leader (or leader elect) of P5 country : 🇨🇳 🇬🇧 🇺🇸 🇷🇺 🇫🇷
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31
30
27
20
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20
17
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9
OptionProbability
Win Probability Added for Offensive Player (WPA)
Total Bases (TB)
Runs Scored (R)
Rbat+
Batting Average on balls in play (BAbip)
Championship Win Probability Added for Offensive Player (cWPA)
Base-Out Runs Added (RE24)
Power-Speed#
WAR (baseball reference Wins Above Replacement (bWAR))
Hits (H)
OPS+
rOBA
Double Plays Grounded Into (GIDP)
Intentional Bases on Balls (IBB)
On Base + Slugging (OPS)
Batting Average (BA)
On Base Percentage (OBP)
Slugging (SLG)
Home Runs (HR)
Times hit by a Pitch (HBP)
Sacrifice Flies (SF)
Caught Stealing (CS)
Strikeouts (SO)
Bases on Balls/Walks (BB)
Triples (3B)
Runs Batted In (RBI)
Stolen Bases (SB)
Doubles (2B)
Plate Appearances (PA)
At Bats (AB)
Games Played (G)
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32
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27
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14
11
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2
OptionProbability
Squash
Cricket
Flag Football
Lacrosse
Rugby (7s)
Ultimate Frisbee
Billiards
Darts
Padel
Pickleball
American Football
Kabaddi
Hurling
Tetherball
Floorball
Teqball
Netball
Bowling
Minigolf
Rugby (15s)
Sepak Takraw
Dodgeball
Kan Jam
Cornhole
Spike ball
Chess boxing
Calvinball
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59
54
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50
50
50
50
44
43
33
25
20
20
8
8
8
7
3
OptionProbability
Idols (hidden individual immunity, whether found at camp, obtained through beware advantages, journeys, or otherwise)
Live Finale and Reunion Show in LA (YES) / Winner Reveal and After show in Fiji (NO)
Tribe Swap (YES) / No Tribe Swap (NO)
Start with rice (YES) / Make them earn rice (NO)
Lots of twists (YES) / Straightforward game (NO)
Final Four Challenge: Option C (Simmotion; the ball track one)
Advantages: Dynamic Power
Advantages: Minimal Power
Advantages: Strategic Power
Final Four Challenge: Option A (Plinko + Puzzle)
Final Four Fire Making (YES) / Final four elimination decided by vote (NO)
Final Four Challenge: Option B (Obstacle course ft mud and puzzle)
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72
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50
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41
37
37
35
20
15
OptionProbability
Someone qualifies 12 balls in 2025
Eivind Dragsjo wins the 2025 Numbers Juggling League
At least 5 different endurance world records will be broken in 2025
Someone flashes 14 balls in 2025
Someone performs the trick f4444444444, from and to a cascade, before the end of 2026 (similarly to https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=42LOiJE5yLg)
Someone flashes 15 balls before the end of 2027
Someone flashes 10 clubs in 2025
At least 10 different endurance world records will be broken in 2025
The European Juggling Convention 2025 is cancelled
100
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55
53
46
41
24
22
5
OptionProbability
Midnight Wisps
Oceanics
Mellow Yellow
Raspberry Racers
O'rangers
Snowballs
Savage Speeders
Black Jacks
Green Ducks
Team Galactic
Kobalts
Team Momo
Limers
Bumblebees
Balls of Chaos
Pinkies
30
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16
10
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4
3
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
S.P.E.W (Society for the Promotion of Elfish Welfare) is featured
Ends within 10 years of release of first episode
The same actors play school-age Harry, Ron, and Hermione throughout
Harry Potters most used (spoken) spell is "Expelliarmus"
Covers all 7 books (i.e. not cancelled/ended early)
Is 7 seasons
Colin Creevey is in more than 2 seasons
Harry wears a pointy wizard hat in more than 1 season
Ends within 9 years of release of first episode
St Mungo's Hospital is shown
Blast-ended skrewt is shown
An actor comes out as trans before 2050
A child actor comes out as trans before 2050
Every season is 10 episodes or fewer
Muggle Studies class is ever shown
The same actor plays Dumbledore throughout (barring flashbacks/flashforwards with age differences)
Wins at least 1 Primetime Emmy
Wins at least 1 Primetime Emmy in an acting category
There's an episode without Harry on screen at all (barring recap, intro, outro, credits, sneak peeks, etc.)
Ends within 8 years of release of first episode
A child actor playing a "relevant" character comes out as trans before 2050 (see list)
Ends within 7 years of release of first episode
Arithmancy class is ever shown
Book character Cho Chang (i.e. person Harry asks to the Yule Ball) has a different name
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OptionProbability
Eastern Michigan - Chris Creighton
Akron - Joe Moorhead
Ball State - Mike Uremovich
Bowling Green - Eddie George
Buffalo - Pete Lembo
Central Michigan - Matt Drinkall
Kent State - Mark Carney
Miami (OH) - Chuck Martin
Northern Illinois - Thomas Hammock
Ohio - Brian Smith
Toledo - Jason Candle
Western Michigan - Lance Taylor
UMass - Joe Harasymiak
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28
OptionProbability
9-46 (e.g. ernie ball hybrid slinky)
9-42
9.5-44
Other
10-46
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19
19
19
16