The Base Pass News

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

52.37%chance

979742016

OptionVotes

YES

10401

9520

By when will LLM chess bots beat other engines? (Permanent)

Apr 1, 2:37 PMJan 31, 7:59 AM

116369729

OptionProbability

2040 or earlier

2050 or earlier

2100 or earlier

2030 or earlier

2029 or earlier

2028 or earlier

2027 or earlier

End of 2026 or earlier

2024, by Election Day

End of 2025 or earlier

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

55%chance

21950798

OptionVotes

YES

2545

1107

Will the Virginia Redistricting Referendum Pass?

Feb 19, 9:41 PMApr 23, 12:59 AM

75.45%chance

7044079

OptionVotes

YES

10480

9863

What will be the best FrontierMath Tier 4 score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3035831

OptionProbability

60-70%

70-80%

50-60%

80-90%

40-50%

30-40%

≥90%

<30%

Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026

Feb 7, 3:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.46%chance

1620038

OptionVotes

YES

29132

4187

Will Ray Kurzweil win his 2029 Turing Test bet with Mitchell Kapor?

Feb 18, 8:14 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

54.54%chance

6311679

OptionVotes

YES

1000

937

By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason?

Nov 9, 5:02 AMJan 2, 5:01 AM

163510

OptionProbability

Jan 1, 2029

Jan 1, 2028

Jan 1, 2027

By 31 December 2026, will the Congress pass a DBCFT (Destination Based Cash Flow Tax)?

Nov 7, 4:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

20.41%chance

61215

OptionVotes

YES

1975

506

Will Congress pass a bill eliminating or increasing per-country caps on employment-based green cards by December 31 2026

Jan 30, 6:42 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

28.17%chance

5602

OptionVotes

YES

1597

626

Will we believe in 2050 that an instance of DeepSeek V3 run by 2025 possessed "consciousness"?

Nov 2, 11:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.54%chance

10274

OptionVotes

YES

175

ODM: Mutiny 4 Unity or Utility 4 futility.Will Sifuna & Babu Owino snatch the Orange from the Broad-based Government?

Jan 8, 11:12 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

OptionProbability

Option 1: Team A (The Firebrands: Sifuna/Babu/Arati/Orengo) - Resolves if Sifuna remains SG or ODM officially supports a presidential candidate (even from another party, e.g., Kalonzo Musyoka or Fred Matiang'i)with a nod from the firebrands

Option 2: Team B (The Broad-based: Wanga/Joho/Mbadi) - Resolves if a Team B member becomes SG or the party officially joins the Government coalition for 2027.

Option 3: Add names to complement your Team or suggest your prefered team formation and alignment

The Base Pass News

Prediction markets for The Base Pass

Prediction markets for The Base Pass

Prediction markets for The Base Pass

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

By when will LLM chess bots beat other engines? (Permanent)

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Will the Virginia Redistricting Referendum Pass?

What will be the best FrontierMath Tier 4 score by Dec 31, 2026?

Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026

Will Ray Kurzweil win his 2029 Turing Test bet with Mitchell Kapor?

By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason?

By 31 December 2026, will the Congress pass a DBCFT (Destination Based Cash Flow Tax)?

Will Congress pass a bill eliminating or increasing per-country caps on employment-based green cards by December 31 2026

Will we believe in 2050 that an instance of DeepSeek V3 run by 2025 possessed "consciousness"?

ODM: Mutiny 4 Unity or Utility 4 futility.Will Sifuna & Babu Owino snatch the Orange from the Broad-based Government?

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