The Base Pass News

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.68%chance

985744202

OptionVotes

YES

10678

9273

By when will LLM chess bots beat other engines? (Permanent)

Apr 1, 2:37 PMJan 31, 7:59 AM

117369894

OptionProbability

2040 or earlier

2050 or earlier

2100 or earlier

2030 or earlier

2029 or earlier

2028 or earlier

2027 or earlier

End of 2026 or earlier

2024, by Election Day

End of 2025 or earlier

CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026?

Feb 21, 11:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48%chance

4956294

OptionVotes

YES

6434

3382

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

56.66%chance

22150875

OptionVotes

YES

2500

1163

Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026

Feb 7, 3:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.03%chance

1927975

OptionVotes

YES

31877

3892

Will Ray Kurzweil win his 2029 Turing Test bet with Mitchell Kapor?

Feb 18, 8:14 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

54.54%chance

6311791

OptionVotes

YES

1000

937

By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason?

Nov 9, 5:02 AMJan 2, 5:01 AM

166460

OptionProbability

Jan 1, 2029

Jan 1, 2028

Jan 1, 2027

Will there be a US federal shutdown in November 2026?

Feb 4, 5:47 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

58.12%chance

113096

OptionVotes

YES

2211

1833

By 31 December 2026, will the Congress pass a DBCFT (Destination Based Cash Flow Tax)?

Nov 7, 4:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19.61%chance

71265

OptionVotes

YES

2025

494

Will Congress pass a bill eliminating or increasing per-country caps on employment-based green cards by December 31 2026

Jan 30, 6:42 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

21.86%chance

7896

OptionVotes

YES

1891

529

Will we believe in 2050 that an instance of DeepSeek V3 run by 2025 possessed "consciousness"?

Nov 2, 11:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.54%chance

10274

OptionVotes

YES

175

ODM: Mutiny 4 Unity or Utility 4 futility.Will Sifuna & Babu Owino snatch the Orange from the Broad-based Government?

Jan 8, 11:12 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

OptionProbability

Option 1: Team A (The Firebrands: Sifuna/Babu/Arati/Orengo) - Resolves if Sifuna remains SG or ODM officially supports a presidential candidate (even from another party, e.g., Kalonzo Musyoka or Fred Matiang'i)with a nod from the firebrands

Option 2: Team B (The Broad-based: Wanga/Joho/Mbadi) - Resolves if a Team B member becomes SG or the party officially joins the Government coalition for 2027.

Option 3: Add names to complement your Team or suggest your prefered team formation and alignment

The Base Pass News

Prediction markets for The Base Pass

Prediction markets for The Base Pass

Prediction markets for The Base Pass

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

By when will LLM chess bots beat other engines? (Permanent)

CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026?

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026

Will Ray Kurzweil win his 2029 Turing Test bet with Mitchell Kapor?

By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason?

Will there be a US federal shutdown in November 2026?

By 31 December 2026, will the Congress pass a DBCFT (Destination Based Cash Flow Tax)?

Will Congress pass a bill eliminating or increasing per-country caps on employment-based green cards by December 31 2026

Will we believe in 2050 that an instance of DeepSeek V3 run by 2025 possessed "consciousness"?

ODM: Mutiny 4 Unity or Utility 4 futility.Will Sifuna & Babu Owino snatch the Orange from the Broad-based Government?

Latest stories