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Prediction markets for The Bear

Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 1400 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - bear case)

Jun 19, 10:10 PMDec 31, 6:00 PM

12.22%chance

3559401

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1284

911

Will someone successfully introduce polar bears to the south pole by mid 2031

Nov 2, 2:04 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

9.03%chance

161174

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2106

803

Will the S&P 500 enter bear market territory (20%+ decline from peak) by June 30, 2026?

Apr 2, 4:57 PMJun 30, 12:00 AM

12.49%chance

151094

OptionVotes

YES

NO

157

89

Will the Polar Bear (Ursus maritimus) become extinct in the current century?

Feb 22, 12:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

18.66%chance

19921

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1071

211

Will "I ate bear fat with honey and salt flakes, to..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 4, 9:47 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

8.94%chance

3755

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1545

932

Will the Chicago Bears win the Super Bowl following any of the 2024-2027 seasons?

May 9, 1:48 PMFeb 25, 4:59 AM

12.18%chance

13624

OptionVotes

YES

NO

269

37

Will the American Black Bear (Ursus americanus) become extinct in the current century?

Feb 22, 12:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9.95%chance

14606

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1026

388

Will the Sloth Bear (Melursus ursinus) become extinct in the current century?

Feb 22, 1:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

21.64%chance

9335

OptionVotes

YES

NO

665

424

Will the Asian Black Bear (Ursus thibetanus) become extinct in the current century?

Feb 22, 1:17 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19.22%chance

8287

OptionVotes

YES

NO

746

401

Will bears be reintroduced to the UK by the end of 2040?

Apr 6, 5:31 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM

28.2%chance

10185

OptionVotes

YES

NO

195

124

Will Build a Bear outperform the SP500 for the year of 2027?

Apr 23, 4:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39%chance

8150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

80

Will "A Bear Case: My Predictions Regarding AI Progress" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 25, 1:15 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.13%chance

12

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

991

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