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Top stories

Logan Lerman, Molly Gordon, Geraldine Viswanathan, Director Sophie Brooks Attend ‘Oh, Hi!’ Premiere; Gordon Also Produces

Logan Lerman, Molly Gordon, Geraldine Viswanathan, Director Sophie Brooks Attend ‘Oh, Hi!’ Premiere; Gordon Also Produces

Authors

5

25 days ago

Prediction markets for The Bear

Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 1400 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - bear case)

Jun 19, 10:10 PMDec 31, 6:00 PM

16.28%chance

3356351

OptionVotes

YES

NO

971

962

Will the four year Bitcoin bull / bear market cycle continue for the 2023-2026 cycle?

Dec 11, 6:14 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

32.87%chance

13128734

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10560

8654

Will the Brown Bear (Ursus arctus) become extinct in the current century?

Feb 22, 12:09 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9.5%chance

151442

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1752

252

Will someone successfully introduce polar bears to the south pole by mid 2031

Nov 2, 2:04 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

14.74%chance

15424

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1356

900

Will the Polar Bear (Ursus maritimus) become extinct in the current century?

Feb 22, 12:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

39.97%chance

17399

OptionVotes

YES

NO

655

374

Will the Sloth Bear (Melursus ursinus) become extinct in the current century?

Feb 22, 1:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

22.58%chance

9310

OptionVotes

YES

NO

640

431

Will the American Black Bear (Ursus americanus) become extinct in the current century?

Feb 22, 12:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

14.73%chance

14306

OptionVotes

YES

NO

726

429

Will the Asian Black Bear (Ursus thibetanus) become extinct in the current century?

Feb 22, 1:17 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19.22%chance

8287

OptionVotes

YES

NO

746

401

Will the Sun Bear (Helarctos malayanus) become extinct in the current century?

Feb 22, 1:27 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.43%chance

10182

OptionVotes

YES

NO

571

451

Will the Andean Bear (Tremarctos ornatus) become extinct in the current century?

Feb 22, 3:49 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38.22%chance

8144

OptionVotes

YES

NO

562

441

Will bears be reintroduced to the UK by the end of 2040?

Apr 6, 5:31 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM

38.78%chance

9135

OptionVotes

NO

YES

149

145

Will "A Bear Case: My Predictions Regarding AI Progress" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 25, 1:15 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.13%chance

12

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

991

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