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Prediction markets for The Big Take

Will AI xrisk seem to be handled seriously by the end of 2026?

May 25, 5:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13.99%chance

475909

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1739

800

Will I be radicalized against taxes by having a job?

Oct 16, 7:42 PMOct 16, 7:32 PM

21.12%chance

524773

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1932

517

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

55.66%chance

394057

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

932

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

16.43%chance

233162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1875

705

Will the percentage of top graduates in math and CS at elite universities who aspire to AI safety work rise by May 2029?

May 23, 1:22 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

77.79%chance

422533

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1871

534

Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?

Aug 31, 7:40 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

58.53%chance

422182

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1151

694

Will there be another EA FTX-sized scandal before 2027 and if so what will it be?

Jan 3, 1:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

342065

OptionProbability

No FTX-sized scandal

sexual harassment

OpenAI Board

Other

MIRI sex scandal/coverup ala Ziz accusations

Nepotism hire of a big name EA is found to be taking money/bribes

Will mackaskill criminal charges

Nick Bostrom racist email

76

9

6

3

2

2

1

1

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.93%chance

171609

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

980

Will Sam Altman know who I am? (5 year time frame)

May 3, 4:40 AMJan 4, 12:59 PM

49.69%chance

371441

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1299

353

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.48%chance

14895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1759

570

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

928

Do OpenAI leadership actually believe they could develop AGI?

Sep 30, 3:59 PMJan 3, 4:59 AM

82.89%chance

18380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1194

935

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