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Prediction markets for The Big Take

Will Trump and Elon cut the Federal Budget by more than $1 Trillion/yr by the end of 2025?

Nov 10, 5:29 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

0.51%chance

16945052

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13977

72

Will AI xrisk seem to be handled seriously by the end of 2026?

May 25, 5:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

22.67%chance

435433

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1126

933

Will I be radicalized against taxes by having a job?

Oct 16, 7:42 PMOct 16, 7:32 PM

20.35%chance

514332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1979

505

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

52.64%chance

393991

OptionVotes

NO

YES

996

983

Will a high-profile news story about my egg freezing journey lead to problems working with clinics in the future

Sep 11, 9:27 PMDec 31, 10:19 PM

33%chance

283390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

702

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

18.24%chance

223012

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1725

736

Will the percentage of top graduates in math and CS at elite universities who aspire to AI safety work rise by May 2029?

May 23, 1:22 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

78.35%chance

422502

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1902

526

Will there be another EA FTX-sized scandal before 2027 and if so what will it be?

Jan 3, 1:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

342065

OptionProbability

No FTX-sized scandal

sexual harassment

OpenAI Board

Other

MIRI sex scandal/coverup ala Ziz accusations

Nepotism hire of a big name EA is found to be taking money/bribes

Will mackaskill criminal charges

Nick Bostrom racist email

76

9

6

3

2

2

1

1

Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?

Aug 31, 7:40 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

60%chance

401996

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1130

724

Will Sam Altman know who I am? (5 year time frame)

May 3, 4:40 AMJan 4, 12:59 PM

49.69%chance

371441

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1299

353

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

928

Do OpenAI leadership actually believe they could develop AGI?

Sep 30, 3:59 PMJan 3, 4:59 AM

82.89%chance

18380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1194

935

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