The Breakdown News

Elon Musk full mental breakdown when?

Mar 19, 9:29 AMMar 26, 10:59 PM

15313268

OptionProbability

2029 or later

Second half of 2025

1st half 2026

First half 2025

2nd half 2026

1st half of 2027

1st half of 2028

2nd half of 2028

2nd half of 2027

He already did

Other

Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?

Aug 10, 3:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

81.31%chance

93929

OptionVotes

YES

1134

954

Will North Korea collapse before the end of 2030?

Dec 28, 1:01 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

16.15%chance

312631

OptionVotes

YES

1217

921

What will be true about asteroid mining by end of 2060?

Jun 8, 8:42 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

152401

OptionProbability

Extraction of at least 100 kg of water from an asteroid

At least 1,000 kg mined (any material)

At least 10 kg mined with mechanical drilling

An asteroid was transported into Earth orbit for mining

At least 100,000 kg mined (any material)

At least 10 kg mined with optical mining (lasers or solar reflectors)

At least 10 kg mined with explosives (including nuclear explosions)

At least 10 kg mined with biomining (breakdown by bacteria)

An asteroid was crashed on the moon for mining

At least 10 kg mined with nano-machines

Will most people use a “rectangle” as their primary device in 2034?

Apr 15, 3:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

82.62%chance

472001

OptionVotes

YES

1061

951

By 2026, will crude steel production outside China be at least 8% higher than in 2024?

Nov 26, 5:17 AMAug 11, 10:59 PM

40.85%chance

5457

OptionVotes

YES

1203

831

If there is a complete societal breakdown in the United States, will I make it to the airport before I am murdered?

Oct 29, 10:05 PMNov 6, 7:59 AM

62.29%chance

10265

OptionVotes

YES

133

109

Who would Trump blame for Ukraine peace breakdown?

Oct 21, 11:01 PMDec 31, 11:54 PM

14255

OptionProbability

Zelenskyy (Ukraine)

Trump continues to play peacemaker 🤡

Putin (Russia)

Other

Will "A breakdown of AI capability levels focused o..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jan 24, 7:21 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

5%chance

1164

OptionVotes

YES

264

Will Jon Zherka have a real, unironic, documented mental breakdown in the next 5 years?

Jan 9, 9:57 PMJan 9, 10:59 PM

56%chance

687

OptionVotes

YES

156

103

Will Keanu Reeves be reported as having a psychological breakdown at any point while voice acting Shadow the Hedgehog

Jun 18, 7:08 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

30.18%chance

463

OptionVotes

YES

152

Will the current Austrian coalition last until the end of the legislature period?

Nov 26, 9:30 AMJul 31, 10:59 PM

48.08%chance

260

OptionVotes

YES

1039

962

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Prediction markets for The Breakdown

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Elon Musk full mental breakdown when?

Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?

Will North Korea collapse before the end of 2030?

What will be true about asteroid mining by end of 2060?

Will most people use a “rectangle” as their primary device in 2034?

By 2026, will crude steel production outside China be at least 8% higher than in 2024?

If there is a complete societal breakdown in the United States, will I make it to the airport before I am murdered?

Who would Trump blame for Ukraine peace breakdown?

Will "A breakdown of AI capability levels focused o..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Will Jon Zherka have a real, unironic, documented mental breakdown in the next 5 years?

Will Keanu Reeves be reported as having a psychological breakdown at any point while voice acting Shadow the Hedgehog

Will the current Austrian coalition last until the end of the legislature period?

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