The Breakdown News

Elon Musk full mental breakdown when?

Mar 19, 9:29 AMMar 26, 10:59 PM

15413311

OptionProbability

2029 or later

1st half 2026

First half 2025

2nd half 2026

Second half of 2025

1st half of 2028

2nd half of 2028

1st half of 2027

2nd half of 2027

He already did

Other

Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?

Aug 10, 3:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

81.31%chance

93929

OptionVotes

YES

1134

954

Will North Korea collapse before the end of 2030?

Dec 28, 1:01 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

16.15%chance

312631

OptionVotes

YES

1217

921

What will be true about asteroid mining by end of 2060?

Jun 8, 8:42 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

152401

OptionProbability

Extraction of at least 100 kg of water from an asteroid

At least 1,000 kg mined (any material)

At least 10 kg mined with mechanical drilling

An asteroid was transported into Earth orbit for mining

At least 100,000 kg mined (any material)

At least 10 kg mined with optical mining (lasers or solar reflectors)

At least 10 kg mined with explosives (including nuclear explosions)

At least 10 kg mined with biomining (breakdown by bacteria)

An asteroid was crashed on the moon for mining

At least 10 kg mined with nano-machines

By 2026, will crude steel production outside China be at least 8% higher than in 2024?

Nov 26, 5:17 AMAug 11, 10:59 PM

49.76%chance

151683

OptionVotes

YES

1005

996

What explains the Hubble Tension

Jan 19, 3:13 PMJan 19, 3:06 PM

9489

OptionProbability

Evolving dark energy with time-dependent properties

Systematic errors in distance measurement techniques

Relativistic backreaction / timescape cosmology (breakdown of global FLRW averaging)

Early dark energy in the early universe

Local cosmic void (KBC void) around the Milky Way

Measurement errors in CMB calibration

Interactions between dark matter and dark energy

New relativistic particles in early universe

Rotating universe model

Vacuum phase transition in early universe

Modified gravity theory (MOND/Milgromian dynamics)

Non-zero spatial curvature of the universe

If there is a complete societal breakdown in the United States, will I make it to the airport before I am murdered?

Oct 29, 10:05 PMNov 6, 7:59 AM

62.29%chance

10265

OptionVotes

YES

133

109

Will My 2002 Honda Accord Break Down Within 1 Year Of Purchase?

Mar 17, 7:28 PMMar 17, 7:26 PM

42.67%chance

7242

OptionVotes

YES

1159

863

Will the current Austrian coalition last until the end of the legislature period?

Nov 26, 9:30 AMJul 31, 10:59 PM

50.62%chance

3110

OptionVotes

YES

1012

988

Will Jon Zherka have a real, unironic, documented mental breakdown in the next 5 years?

Jan 9, 9:57 PMJan 9, 10:59 PM

56%chance

687

OptionVotes

YES

156

103

Will Keanu Reeves be reported as having a psychological breakdown at any point while voice acting Shadow the Hedgehog

Jun 18, 7:08 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

30.18%chance

463

OptionVotes

YES

152

What will be the national vote share, by party, in the City Mayor and Country Magistrate elections in Taiwan in 2026?

Dec 23, 3:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

OptionProbability

DPP

KMT

TPP

Independents

Other

The Breakdown News

Prediction markets for The Breakdown

Prediction markets for The Breakdown

Prediction markets for The Breakdown

Elon Musk full mental breakdown when?

Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?

Will North Korea collapse before the end of 2030?

What will be true about asteroid mining by end of 2060?

By 2026, will crude steel production outside China be at least 8% higher than in 2024?

What explains the Hubble Tension

If there is a complete societal breakdown in the United States, will I make it to the airport before I am murdered?

Will My 2002 Honda Accord Break Down Within 1 Year Of Purchase?

Will the current Austrian coalition last until the end of the legislature period?

Will Jon Zherka have a real, unironic, documented mental breakdown in the next 5 years?

Will Keanu Reeves be reported as having a psychological breakdown at any point while voice acting Shadow the Hedgehog

What will be the national vote share, by party, in the City Mayor and Country Magistrate elections in Taiwan in 2026?

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