The Breakdown News

Elon Musk full mental breakdown when?

Mar 19, 9:29 AMMar 26, 10:59 PM

15313267

OptionProbability

2029 or later

Second half of 2025

1st half 2026

First half 2025

2nd half 2026

1st half of 2027

2nd half of 2027

1st half of 2028

2nd half of 2028

He already did

Other

Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?

Aug 10, 3:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

78.94%chance

73804

OptionVotes

YES

1009

985

Will North Korea collapse before the end of 2025?

Dec 17, 3:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.21%chance

283101

OptionVotes

YES

2592

828

Will North Korea collapse before the end of 2030?

Dec 28, 1:01 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

16.15%chance

312631

OptionVotes

YES

1217

921

What will be true about asteroid mining by end of 2060?

Jun 8, 8:42 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

142400

OptionProbability

Extraction of at least 100 kg of water from an asteroid

At least 1,000 kg mined (any material)

At least 10 kg mined with mechanical drilling

An asteroid was transported into Earth orbit for mining

At least 100,000 kg mined (any material)

At least 10 kg mined with optical mining (lasers or solar reflectors)

At least 10 kg mined with explosives (including nuclear explosions)

At least 10 kg mined with biomining (breakdown by bacteria)

An asteroid was crashed on the moon for mining

At least 10 kg mined with nano-machines

Will most people use a “rectangle” as their primary device in 2034?

Apr 15, 3:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

82.77%chance

461999

OptionVotes

YES

1070

949

Will China collapse before 2030

Dec 16, 3:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10%chance

201300

OptionVotes

YES

1474

907

Which calamities will affect the Future Turtles camp at Burning Man in 2025?

Mar 11, 8:48 PMSep 10, 6:59 AM

13693

OptionProbability

Dust Storm 🌪️

Vehicle Breakdown 🚗

Lost Camp Members 🔍

Extreme Heat 🥵

Power Outage ⚡

Medical Emergency 🚑

Food Poisoning 🤢

Plague (🐸 / 🪳 / 🍤 )

Theft / Burglary 🔒

Structural Collapse 🏚️

Water Shortage 💧

Fire 🔥

Sexual Assault 🚩

Rain 🌧️ / Flooding

Psychotic Break 🧠 ⚡️

Will Jon Zherka have a real, unironic, documented mental breakdown in the next 5 years?

Jan 9, 9:57 PMJan 9, 10:59 PM

56%chance

687

OptionVotes

YES

156

103

Will Keanu Reeves be reported as having a psychological breakdown at any point while voice acting Shadow the Hedgehog

Jun 18, 7:08 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

30.18%chance

463

OptionVotes

YES

152

If there is a complete societal breakdown in the United States, will I make it to the airport before I am murdered?

Oct 29, 10:05 PMNov 6, 7:59 AM

63.88%chance

641

OptionVotes

YES

Will "A breakdown of AI capability levels focused o..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jan 24, 7:21 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

OptionVotes

YES

100

The Breakdown News

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Elon Musk full mental breakdown when?

Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?

Will North Korea collapse before the end of 2025?

Will North Korea collapse before the end of 2030?

What will be true about asteroid mining by end of 2060?

Will most people use a “rectangle” as their primary device in 2034?

Will China collapse before 2030

Which calamities will affect the Future Turtles camp at Burning Man in 2025?

Will Jon Zherka have a real, unironic, documented mental breakdown in the next 5 years?

Will Keanu Reeves be reported as having a psychological breakdown at any point while voice acting Shadow the Hedgehog

If there is a complete societal breakdown in the United States, will I make it to the airport before I am murdered?

Will "A breakdown of AI capability levels focused o..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

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