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Prediction markets for The Challenger

Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least one known lost work (>= 1k words) by 2030?

Oct 15, 11:17 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

59.35%chance

5315168

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1681

1326

Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2030?

May 19, 5:36 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

60.73%chance

224414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1038

963

In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number?

Mar 23, 2:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

223198

OptionProbability

2025-2034

2035-2039

2055-2100

2040-2044

2045-2049

2050-2054

30

26

13

12

10

8

Will the DARPA Lift challenge have qualifying participants with a lift ratio of over 2X?

Nov 14, 10:35 PMDec 31, 10:22 PM

90.14%chance

52609

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3024

331

When will the Jacobian challenge be solved in Lean?

May 29, 10:10 AMDec 31, 11:27 PM

171681

OptionProbability

Before July 2027

Before Jan 2027

Before Sep 2026

After July 2027

Before July 2026

90

77

32

7

1

Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2040?

Nov 1, 3:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

55.27%chance

221286

OptionVotes

NO

YES

399

134

Will AI pass the Winograd schema challenge by the end of 2030?

Dec 23, 12:16 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

93.51%chance

271054

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1536

912

What works will be discovered in the Herculaneum library? (Vesuvius Challenge)

Mar 13, 5:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8251

OptionProbability

Any (New) Complete Poem from Sappho

Augustus's Autobiography

Any New Prose Work from Aristotle

The Babylonians (Aristophanes lost play)

Claudius's History of Carthage

Ptolemy's biography of Alexander

Claudius's History of the Etruscans

The Cypria

Ovid's Medea

50

50

46

41

40

40

35

33

29

If a human challenge trial for a hepatitis C vaccine is completed by the end of 2024, will a hep C vaccine be approved by the end of 2027?

Sep 22, 7:51 PMDec 30, 4:59 AM

52.66%chance

11112

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

997

Who will win the Bricked Up Tik Tok Challenge?

Oct 7, 5:25 PMApr 12, 5:23 PM

115

OptionProbability

Owen

Johnny

Liam

Ben

Drew

41

15

15

15

15

Will "Statistical Challenges with Making Super IQ b..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Apr 5, 12:59 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.28%chance

114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1014

916

Will "Announcing the ARC White-Box Estimation Challenge" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jun 3, 1:09 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.82%chance

113

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1013

998

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