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Prediction markets for The Challenger

Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least one known lost work (>= 1k words) by 2030?

Oct 15, 11:17 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

59.35%chance

5315168

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1681

1326

Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2030?

May 19, 5:36 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

78.88%chance

224706

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1745

670

In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number?

Mar 23, 2:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

223245

OptionProbability

2025-2034

2035-2039

2055-2100

2040-2044

2045-2049

2050-2054

31

26

13

12

10

9

In what year will ten items on the CoolFold 100 Challenge have happened ?

May 6, 12:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71269

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2024

2025

2028

2029

Other

98

1

0

0

0

0

0

Will AI pass the Winograd schema challenge by the end of 2030?

Dec 23, 12:16 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

93.51%chance

271054

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1536

912

Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2045?

Nov 12, 4:19 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

61.29%chance

8243

OptionVotes

NO

YES

216

113

Will I follow the "benevolent observer challenge" next week? (Ṁ10 Bonus)

Sep 20, 7:02 AMOct 4, 11:59 PM

52.94%chance

5204

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1061

943

The Million Views Challenge: Will the first market to reach 1 Million views receive an reward for it?

Feb 28, 6:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

23.56%chance

6142

OptionVotes

YES

NO

261

107

If a human challenge trial for a hepatitis C vaccine is completed by the end of 2024, will a hep C vaccine be approved by the end of 2027?

Sep 22, 7:51 PMDec 30, 4:59 AM

52.66%chance

11112

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

997

If a human challenge trial for a hepatitis C vaccine is NOT completed by the end of 2024, will a hep C vaccine be approved by the end of 2027?

Sep 22, 7:52 PMDec 30, 4:59 AM

46.07%chance

434

OptionVotes

YES

NO

147

133

Will "Statistical Challenges with Making Super IQ b..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Apr 5, 12:59 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.28%chance

114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1014

916

Will "Announcing the ARC White-Box Estimation Challenge" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jun 3, 1:09 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.82%chance

113

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1013

998

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