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Prediction markets for The Challenger

Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least one known lost work (>= 1k words) by 2030?

Oct 15, 11:17 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

57.92%chance

5215118

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1716

1276

In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number?

Mar 23, 2:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

223062

OptionProbability

2025-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

2055-2100

2045-2049

2050-2054

32

26

12

12

10

8

Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2030?

May 19, 5:36 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

88.24%chance

182653

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2633

503

Will the CoolFold 100 Challenge get 1000 traders by EOY 2025?

Jan 7, 11:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.12%chance

202222

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3084

588

Will AI pass the Winograd schema challenge by the end of 2025?

Dec 23, 12:16 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

87.08%chance

321155

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1335

912

Will AI pass the Winograd schema challenge by the end of 2030?

Dec 23, 12:16 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

93.51%chance

271054

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1536

912

Who will win the CoolFold 30 Challenge? (see info)

Dec 9, 4:15 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4517

OptionProbability

@tumbles

@door

@bohaska

@CarlLevitt

@ernie

Sundry @oh

52

19

9

9

9

4

Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2045?

Nov 12, 4:19 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

66.39%chance

6208

OptionVotes

NO

YES

238

101

If a human challenge trial for a hepatitis C vaccine is completed by the end of 2024, will a hep C vaccine be approved by the end of 2027?

Sep 22, 7:51 PMDec 30, 4:59 AM

52.66%chance

11112

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

997

Will OpenAI be the first to succeed at the IMO Grand Challenge or the XTS AI-MO competition?

Nov 27, 5:31 PMJan 5, 4:59 AM

52.48%chance

673

OptionVotes

YES

NO

131

128

Will Kristi Noem's Immigrant American Citizenship Challenge TV show air an episode by the end of 2026?

May 16, 12:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.84%chance

661

OptionVotes

YES

NO

161

62

Will the DARPA Lift challenge have qualifying participants with a lift ratio of over 2X?

Nov 14, 10:35 PMDec 31, 10:22 PM

50%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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