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Prediction markets for The Challenger

Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least one known lost work (>= 1k words) by 2030?

Oct 15, 11:17 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

59.35%chance

5315168

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1681

1326

In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number?

Mar 23, 2:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

223198

OptionProbability

2025-2034

2035-2039

2055-2100

2040-2044

2045-2049

2050-2054

30

26

13

12

10

8

Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2030?

May 19, 5:36 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

88.24%chance

182653

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2633

503

Will AI pass the Winograd schema challenge by the end of 2030?

Dec 23, 12:16 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

93.51%chance

271054

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1536

912

Will the DARPA Lift challenge have qualifying participants with a lift ratio of over 2X?

Nov 14, 10:35 PMDec 31, 10:22 PM

37.48%chance

3327

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1292

774

If a human challenge trial for a hepatitis C vaccine is completed by the end of 2024, will a hep C vaccine be approved by the end of 2027?

Sep 22, 7:51 PMDec 30, 4:59 AM

52.66%chance

11112

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

997

Will the winner of the NFL Coaching Survival Challenge be the same winner as the NFL Coach Survival Pool?

Dec 16, 12:58 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

12.94%chance

2110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

Will OpenAI be the first to succeed at the IMO Grand Challenge or the XTS AI-MO competition?

Nov 27, 5:31 PMJan 5, 4:59 AM

52.48%chance

673

OptionVotes

YES

NO

131

128

If a human challenge trial for a hepatitis C vaccine is NOT completed by the end of 2024, will a hep C vaccine be approved by the end of 2027?

Sep 22, 7:52 PMDec 30, 4:59 AM

46.07%chance

434

OptionVotes

YES

NO

147

133

Benchmark Gap #7: Once 10% of the medical Grand Challenges are "solved", how many months will it be before AI are in common use in hospitals for analyzing medical images with minimal human oversight?

Feb 8, 10:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26.62%chance

225

OptionProbability

NO

YES

295

276

Who will win the Bricked Up Tik Tok Challenge?

Oct 7, 5:25 PMApr 12, 5:23 PM

115

OptionProbability

Owen

Johnny

Liam

Ben

Drew

41

15

15

15

15

Will "Statistical Challenges with Making Super IQ b..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Apr 5, 12:59 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.28%chance

114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1014

916

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