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Prediction markets for The Challenger

Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least one known lost work (>= 1k words) by 2030?

Oct 15, 11:17 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

91.47%chance

5013718

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4838

836

Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2025?

May 19, 5:35 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

5.23%chance

3811901

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3916

589

In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number?

Mar 23, 2:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

222962

Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2030?

May 19, 5:36 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

88.24%chance

182653

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2633

503

Will the CoolFold 100 Challenge get 1000 traders by EOY 2025?

Jan 7, 11:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.12%chance

202222

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3084

588

Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least 85% of one 1000-word passage by 2030?

Oct 16, 2:31 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

89.78%chance

141950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

206

Will the United States Supreme Court receive a challenge to gender identity as a protected class before 2026?

Apr 30, 12:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.6%chance

141516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1710

250

Will AI pass the Winograd schema challenge by the end of 2025?

Dec 23, 12:16 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

85.98%chance

311055

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1235

927

Will AI pass the Winograd schema challenge by the end of 2030?

Dec 23, 12:16 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

93.51%chance

271054

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1536

912

If a human challenge trial for a hepatitis C vaccine is completed by the end of 2024, will a hep C vaccine be approved by the end of 2027?

Sep 22, 7:51 PMDec 30, 4:59 AM

52.66%chance

11112

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

997

In what year will 15 items on the CoolFold 100 Challenge have happened ?

May 6, 4:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

497

OptionProbability

2027

2026

2028

2029

Other

2025

47

13

13

11

11

4

Will Kristi Noem's Immigrant American Citizenship Challenge TV show air an episode by the end of 2026?

May 16, 12:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.84%chance

661

OptionVotes

YES

NO

161

62

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