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Prediction markets for The Challenger

Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least one known lost work (>= 1k words) by 2030?

Oct 15, 11:17 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

59.35%chance

5315168

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1681

1326

In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number?

Mar 23, 2:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

223062

OptionProbability

2025-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

2055-2100

2045-2049

2050-2054

32

26

12

12

10

8

Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2030?

May 19, 5:36 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

88.24%chance

182653

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2633

503

Will AI pass the Winograd schema challenge by the end of 2030?

Dec 23, 12:16 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

93.51%chance

271054

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1536

912

Who will win the CoolFold 30 Challenge? (see info)

Dec 9, 4:15 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4517

OptionProbability

@tumbles

@door

@bohaska

@CarlLevitt

@ernie

Sundry @oh

52

19

9

9

9

4

Will the DARPA Lift challenge have qualifying participants with a lift ratio of over 2X?

Nov 14, 10:35 PMDec 31, 10:22 PM

37.48%chance

3327

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1292

774

What works will be discovered in the Herculaneum library? (Vesuvius Challenge)

Mar 13, 5:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8251

OptionProbability

Any (New) Complete Poem from Sappho

Augustus's Autobiography

Any New Prose Work from Aristotle

The Babylonians (Aristophanes lost play)

Claudius's History of Carthage

Ptolemy's biography of Alexander

Claudius's History of the Etruscans

The Cypria

Ovid's Medea

50

50

46

41

40

40

35

33

29

Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2045?

Nov 12, 4:19 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

66.39%chance

6208

OptionVotes

NO

YES

238

101

Will Kristi Noem's Immigrant American Citizenship Challenge TV show air an episode by the end of 2026?

May 16, 12:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.69%chance

8141

OptionVotes

YES

NO

241

41

Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2035?

Nov 1, 3:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45%chance

12129

OptionVotes

NO

YES

166

107

If a human challenge trial for a hepatitis C vaccine is completed by the end of 2024, will a hep C vaccine be approved by the end of 2027?

Sep 22, 7:51 PMDec 30, 4:59 AM

52.66%chance

11112

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

997

Will OpenAI be the first to succeed at the IMO Grand Challenge or the XTS AI-MO competition?

Nov 27, 5:31 PMJan 5, 4:59 AM

52.48%chance

673

OptionVotes

YES

NO

131

128

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