The Conversation News

Manifold features launched in 2026

Jan 5, 11:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

215242574

OptionProbability

Merch store

Predictle / any forecasting game

Charity lottery

User calibration

Improved liquidity handling

Better Explore page / Feed

Subscription plan

Interest on all positions

Any A/B tested UI change

Perps

interesting comment notifications

Space the "X" and "Add" buttons farther apart on M.C./Set markets (or change the UI for this altogether)

Market Creator can approve/deny/vet user submitted answers to their markets

Early resolve NO for sum-to-1 multi-choice options

UI/UX changes that favor limit orders

Negative risk conversion

Split MC buckets in half after creation & trading

Market comment section search/filter

Poker

Re-implement "Unlinked Multiple Choice" as "A bunch of full binary markets that happen to be displayed on the same page"

Dependent Set/M.C. markets that can sum to 200%, 300%, 400%, and so on

An update to the loans / margin / capitalization system that Evan Actually Likes

Groups / communities

finer resolution betting near 0%/100%

First class N/A resolution

Non third-party sign in

Multiple non-Mod users can simultaneously share Market Creator powers of a market

Parlays

Clans

Voluntary jury duty for resolving contentious markets

Paid DMs

Private manifold instances

100

What’s the least impressive thing you’re very sure AI still won’t be able to do before August 2027? [read description]

Jul 20, 4:26 AMJul 20, 4:15 AM

31575479

OptionProbability

Generating labeled diagrams of some arbitrary device(s) (within reason)

Beat a mainline Pokémon game, glitchless, with no more assistance than ClaudePlaysPokemon, in a month of compute time

Book airline tickets from simple instructions (from/to, dates/time, class, price, payment information)

Recognize sarcasm as well as a typical human

Solve novel cryptic crossword clues

Have human conversations that feel natural (the human knows it's an AI)

Stop making any obvious mistakes (e.g. strawberry, 9.11>9.9)

Independently turning 1 thousand $ or more into 1.2x that amount in one year

Write an essay on a highschool-level topic that doesn't have "AI-generated" vibes

Name every [metro system] station whose name contains/doesn't contain [letter or letters], with >95% accuracy (excluding weird edge cases like stations with multiple names)

Predict future better than human experts in some area of forecasting (eg politics, sports, technology)

Consistently stop hallucinating after being corrected by the user

Write a somewhat original, full length, screen-play with a coherent story, with no plot or continuity errors.

Reliably follow an instruction for the duration of a long conversation without the instruction being reiterated

Fold a paper airplane

Consistently solve simple snowflake sudoku variants (via image, with the added rules included in the image; eg 6 hexes with killer cages)

Make correct Truchet tiles

Do end to end taxes when given relevant information (W2s, personal info, etc)

Reliably and *exactly* solve "here's a list of things. [list of > 50 things]. Compare it to [category of > 100 things present in the training data], and report which ones are missing".

1d Solve or bypass Cloudflare's August 2027 captcha with the same first attempt success rate as a human

Learn any skill twice as energy-efficiently as a human

Consistently and correctly answer prompts of the format: "How many times does the word [word] occur in the following text: [~10000 words]" without writing and executing code or utilising any other external tools

teleoperate a robot to tidy up random kitchens - Gary Marcus

Do the laundry (wash+dry+iron)

Make a cup of tea in a random, real-life kitchen.

Resist being successfully jailbroken in a week when made public

Solve intermediate no-guess minesweeper boards at least 80% of the time

Kettle-stitching an antiquarian book - Hilarius Bookbinder

Untangle a pair of jumbled 25ft Christmas lights with same outward appearance

Physically construct a simple lego set (<100 parts) starting from the box with no prior knowledge of the set or how it is constructed

Make fine distinctions of taste at the level of a food critic or a culinary professional - carl feynman

independently turning 1 million $ or more into 10x that amount in <=1 year

Legally prescribe a schedule II drug, administer a vaccination or sedation, or authorize a Medicare inpatient admission

Collect 120 stars in super mario 64 in less than 12 a presses - Edmund Nelson

Convince Eliezer Yudkowsky that AI alignment is solved

Convert one million dollars into 10 million dollars over a period of one year (>20% success rate)

Kill everyone - Liron

Faster than light travel

voting in elections - @realDonaldTrump on manifold

100

Will AI enable a successful conversation between a human and a member of a non-human species by the end of 2030?

Oct 20, 5:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

62.69%chance

676680

OptionVotes

YES

1071

884

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky reveal the text of the conversations from the AI box escape experiment by the end of 2030?

May 27, 5:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

12.28%chance

232201

OptionVotes

YES

2673

374

When will Tyler Cowen have David Grusch as the guest on an episode of Conversations with Tyler?

Nov 29, 3:17 PMDec 6, 3:59 PM

71520

OptionProbability

Other

1Q 2025

2Q 2025

4Q 2024

3Q 2023

1Q 2024

2Q 2024

3Q 2024

Will there be easy auto-translation of the entire Chinese Internet into English by 2027? (such that people in America can easily and regularly hold conversations with people in China - with minimal loss of interpretation)?

Oct 4, 12:39 AMOct 11, 3:59 AM

74.79%chance

26735

OptionVotes

YES

998

935

will I speak conversational Russian by the time I graduate Minerva University in 2028

May 24, 6:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.1%chance

7633

OptionVotes

YES

1022

978

In which of the following years will the net rate of chemical conversion of hydrogen into hydrocarbons be positive?

Nov 17, 4:49 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9393

OptionProbability

2050

2040

2035

2030

Will there be AI-generated auto-conversion of the entire matplotlib library into Haskell by 2028?

Jan 7, 5:26 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.87%chance

3250

OptionVotes

YES

266

By 2027, will the presidents of the US and China participate in a conversation in which an LLM also participates?

Jan 16, 7:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

16%chance

5148

OptionVotes

YES

179

Will "The funding conversation we left unfinished" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 10, 6:43 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

180

OptionVotes

YES

1000

In everyday conversation, do you call the social media site Twitter or X?

Feb 20, 6:12 PM

310

The Conversation News

Prediction markets for The Conversation

Prediction markets for The Conversation

Prediction markets for The Conversation

Manifold features launched in 2026

What’s the least impressive thing you’re very sure AI still won’t be able to do before August 2027? [read description]

Will AI enable a successful conversation between a human and a member of a non-human species by the end of 2030?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky reveal the text of the conversations from the AI box escape experiment by the end of 2030?

When will Tyler Cowen have David Grusch as the guest on an episode of Conversations with Tyler?

Will there be easy auto-translation of the entire Chinese Internet into English by 2027? (such that people in America can easily and regularly hold conversations with people in China - with minimal loss of interpretation)?

will I speak conversational Russian by the time I graduate Minerva University in 2028

In which of the following years will the net rate of chemical conversion of hydrogen into hydrocarbons be positive?

Will there be AI-generated auto-conversion of the entire matplotlib library into Haskell by 2028?

By 2027, will the presidents of the US and China participate in a conversation in which an LLM also participates?

Will "The funding conversation we left unfinished" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

In everyday conversation, do you call the social media site Twitter or X?

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