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Prediction markets for The Conversation

Will a major dating app use LLMs to simulate conversations by Valentine's Day 2026?

Feb 14, 1:02 AMFeb 15, 7:59 AM

9.49%chance

4323225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

30783

3099

Will AI enable a successful conversation between a human and a member of a non-human species by the end of 2030?

Oct 20, 5:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78.22%chance

636269

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1665

643

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky reveal the text of the conversations from the AI box escape experiment by the end of 2030?

May 27, 5:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

11.88%chance

232149

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2724

367

When will Tyler Cowen have David Grusch as the guest on an episode of Conversations with Tyler?

Nov 29, 3:17 PMDec 6, 3:59 PM

61519

OptionProbability

Other

1Q 2025

2Q 2025

4Q 2024

3Q 2023

1Q 2024

2Q 2024

3Q 2024

34

25

22

15

1

1

1

1

Will there be easy auto-translation of the entire Chinese Internet into English by 2027? (such that people in America can easily and regularly hold conversations with people in China - with minimal loss of interpretation)?

Oct 4, 12:39 AMOct 11, 3:59 AM

74.79%chance

26735

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

935

will I speak conversational Russian by the time I graduate Minerva University in 2028

May 24, 6:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.1%chance

7633

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1022

978

In which of the following years will the net rate of chemical conversion of hydrogen into hydrocarbons be positive?

Nov 17, 4:49 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

8303

OptionProbability

2050

2040

2035

2030

35

26

21

17

Will there be AI-generated auto-conversion of the entire matplotlib library into Haskell by 2028?

Jan 7, 5:26 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.87%chance

3250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

266

27

The new, rounder, signup buttons for Beeminder will improve signup conversion

Dec 28, 4:09 PMJun 30, 3:07 PM

65.05%chance

5184

OptionVotes

NO

YES

136

73

By 2027, will the presidents of the US and China participate in a conversation in which an LLM also participates?

Jan 16, 7:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

16%chance

5148

OptionVotes

YES

NO

179

81

Will "The funding conversation we left unfinished" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 10, 6:43 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

180

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

In everyday conversation, do you call the social media site Twitter or X?

Feb 20, 6:12 PM

310

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