The Conversation News

Manifold features launched in 2026

Jan 5, 11:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

187166856

OptionProbability

Merch store

Predictle / any forecasting game

Charity lottery

User calibration

Better Explore page / Feed

Subscription plan

Interest on all positions

Improved liquidity handling

Market Creator can approve/deny/vet user submitted answers to their markets

Negative risk conversion

interesting comment notifications

Perps

Early resolve NO for sum-to-1 multi-choice options

UI/UX changes that favor limit orders

Split MC buckets in half after creation & trading

Market comment section search/filter

finer resolution betting near 0%/100%

First class N/A resolution

Re-implement "Unlinked Multiple Choice" as "A bunch of full binary markets that happen to be displayed on the same page"

Space the "X" and "Add" buttons farther apart on M.C./Set markets (or change the UI for this altogether)

Groups / communities

Multiple non-Mod users can simultaneously share Market Creator powers of a market

An update to the loans / margin / capitalization system that Evan Actually Likes

Non third-party sign in

Any A/B tested UI change

Voluntary jury duty for resolving contentious markets

Clans

Parlays

Poker

Paid DMs

Private manifold instances

100

Will AI enable a successful conversation between a human and a member of a non-human species by the end of 2030?

Oct 20, 5:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.33%chance

666670

OptionVotes

YES

1088

874

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky reveal the text of the conversations from the AI box escape experiment by the end of 2030?

May 27, 5:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

11.88%chance

232149

OptionVotes

YES

2724

367

When will Tyler Cowen have David Grusch as the guest on an episode of Conversations with Tyler?

Nov 29, 3:17 PMDec 6, 3:59 PM

61519

OptionProbability

Other

1Q 2025

2Q 2025

4Q 2024

3Q 2023

1Q 2024

2Q 2024

3Q 2024

Will there be easy auto-translation of the entire Chinese Internet into English by 2027? (such that people in America can easily and regularly hold conversations with people in China - with minimal loss of interpretation)?

Oct 4, 12:39 AMOct 11, 3:59 AM

74.79%chance

26735

OptionVotes

YES

998

935

will I speak conversational Russian by the time I graduate Minerva University in 2028

May 24, 6:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.1%chance

7633

OptionVotes

YES

1022

978

In which of the following years will the net rate of chemical conversion of hydrogen into hydrocarbons be positive?

Nov 17, 4:49 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

8303

OptionProbability

2050

2040

2035

2030

Will there be AI-generated auto-conversion of the entire matplotlib library into Haskell by 2028?

Jan 7, 5:26 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.87%chance

3250

OptionVotes

YES

266

The new, rounder, signup buttons for Beeminder will improve signup conversion

Dec 28, 4:09 PMJun 30, 3:07 PM

65.05%chance

5184

OptionVotes

YES

136

By 2027, will the presidents of the US and China participate in a conversation in which an LLM also participates?

Jan 16, 7:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

16%chance

5148

OptionVotes

YES

179

Will "The funding conversation we left unfinished" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 10, 6:43 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

180

OptionVotes

YES

1000

In everyday conversation, do you call the social media site Twitter or X?

Feb 20, 6:12 PM

310

The Conversation News

Prediction markets for The Conversation

Prediction markets for The Conversation

Prediction markets for The Conversation

Manifold features launched in 2026

Will AI enable a successful conversation between a human and a member of a non-human species by the end of 2030?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky reveal the text of the conversations from the AI box escape experiment by the end of 2030?

When will Tyler Cowen have David Grusch as the guest on an episode of Conversations with Tyler?

Will there be easy auto-translation of the entire Chinese Internet into English by 2027? (such that people in America can easily and regularly hold conversations with people in China - with minimal loss of interpretation)?

will I speak conversational Russian by the time I graduate Minerva University in 2028

In which of the following years will the net rate of chemical conversion of hydrogen into hydrocarbons be positive?

Will there be AI-generated auto-conversion of the entire matplotlib library into Haskell by 2028?

The new, rounder, signup buttons for Beeminder will improve signup conversion

By 2027, will the presidents of the US and China participate in a conversation in which an LLM also participates?

Will "The funding conversation we left unfinished" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

In everyday conversation, do you call the social media site Twitter or X?

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