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The Creator News

Will Allan Lichtman (creator of the 13 Keys) correctly predict the 2028 election?

Oct 14, 12:17 AMDec 1, 7:59 AM

67.06%chance

177310

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1427

701

Will the creator of this market (me) be here to resolve it on December 31st 2025?

Dec 24, 11:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

94.49%chance

215703

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4274

336

🐲 Will I Slay all 20 Top Creators by the end of 2026?

Nov 2, 1:50 PMJan 1, 1:00 AM

3.56%chance

114306

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5202

192

Will Manifold hire a professional market creator by the end of 2025?

Sep 1, 1:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4.61%chance

203838

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4481

547

Will the creator of any cryptocurrency be imprisoned for creating it before 2033?

Dec 11, 2:41 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

5.49%chance

213037

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2050

707

Will 50%+ of the Top Creators on the Manifold leaderboard by end of 2025 have 20K or more followers on their Twitter accounts?

Jan 26, 3:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6%chance

112362

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3280

685

Will the creators of "South Park" both be killed by AI before "South Park" is officially cancelled?

Mar 24, 9:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.4%chance

132131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2282

880

Will I be on the "Top traders" leaderboard before the "Top creators" one?

Mar 3, 5:23 PMDec 8, 9:35 PM

25.25%chance

15869

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1107

931

Will the creator of this market resolve it to yes on December 31st, 2025

Oct 28, 2:45 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

53.38%chance

3620

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1070

935

Will Skibidi Toilet reach 100 full episodes (by the creator's numbering) by EOY 2025?

Feb 13, 10:12 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.08%chance

15391

OptionVotes

YES

NO

418

59

If a market creator who is well-known in the real world resolves a market in a way that they believe to be correct, but Manifold admins believe to be incorrect, will they treat that market differently from the markets of non-famous users?

Dec 15, 1:31 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31.49%chance

12146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1054

966

Will the creators of Emesis Blue release their second TF2 film 'Murder Inc' by the end of 2025?

Feb 19, 6:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.34%chance

448

OptionVotes

YES

NO

148

68

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