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Prediction markets for The Creator

Will Allan Lichtman (creator of the 13 Keys) correctly predict the 2028 election?

Oct 14, 12:17 AMDec 1, 7:59 AM

68.56%chance

187360

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1477

677

🐲 Will I Slay all 20 Top Creators by the end of 2026?

Nov 2, 1:50 PMJan 1, 1:00 AM

2.11%chance

135907

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6803

147

Will the creator of any cryptocurrency be imprisoned for creating it before 2033?

Dec 11, 2:41 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

5.49%chance

213037

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2050

707

Will the creators of "South Park" both be killed by AI before "South Park" is officially cancelled?

Mar 24, 9:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.52%chance

132287

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2226

883

Will I be on the "Top traders" leaderboard before the "Top creators" one?

Mar 3, 5:23 PMDec 8, 9:35 PM

25.25%chance

15869

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1107

931

Will the Harry Potter universe outlive its creator?

Jan 15, 2:36 PMJan 15, 2:30 PM

74.81%chance

9292

OptionVotes

NO

YES

172

58

Will MP (the original creator) consider Sam Altman a grifter by the end of 2026?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

56.35%chance

8265

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108

89

Will a custom podcast-creator be on the market by 2028? (details below)

Apr 11, 12:50 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

61.62%chance

7227

OptionVotes

NO

YES

267

180

Will Aella (the original creator) have a baby by the end of 2027?

Aug 1, 4:22 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.63%chance

5168

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

90

If a market creator who is well-known in the real world resolves a market in a way that they believe to be correct, but Manifold admins believe to be incorrect, will they treat that market differently from the markets of non-famous users?

Dec 15, 1:31 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31.49%chance

12146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1054

966

Will the creators of Emesis Blue release their second TF2 film 'Murder Inc' by the end of 2026?

Feb 19, 6:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.67%chance

467

OptionVotes

YES

NO

134

74

Will Touhou creator Ota Junya (ZUN) attend a convention in the United States before 2030?

Aug 27, 8:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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