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Prediction markets for The Departed

Will the US Department of Education cease to exist during the Trump administration?

Nov 11, 11:36 PMFeb 21, 4:59 AM

7%chance

7821906

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1964

37

If elected, will Donald Trump dismantle the department of education as promised?

Jun 26, 4:34 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

66.55%chance

497562

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1436

722

Will NASA be folded into the US Department of Transportation?

Oct 21, 2:40 AMJan 1, 2:27 AM

3.66%chance

104271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5133

195

Will the Department of Government Efficiency recommend cancelling Blue Origin's Human Landing System before 2029?

Nov 13, 3:34 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

4.64%chance

183985

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4535

221

If Trump or other Republican wins in 2024, how many cabinet level departments will be eliminated before the end of 2028?

Jun 18, 12:20 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

153650

OptionProbability

0

1

2

3

More than 3

53

28

8

7

4

Will the Justice Department win its antitrust suit against Google?

Jan 24, 6:00 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM

15.67%chance

262458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1818

739

Which AI will the Department of War use?

Feb 28, 12:14 AMDec 31, 12:10 AM

162236

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Other

xAI

Google Deepmind

65

22

7

6

Will the Department of Government Efficiency recommend cancelling SLS before 2029?

Nov 13, 3:33 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

75.91%chance

152154

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1775

563

Will the Department of Government Efficiency lead to at least 100,000 federal government layoffs by 4th of July 2026?

Nov 13, 4:04 AMJul 7, 6:59 AM

75.79%chance

13666

OptionVotes

NO

YES

177

57

Any change to the list of 15 US Government executive departments through mid 2027

Jan 2, 8:12 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM

47.56%chance

8509

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

952

Will "Dispatch from Anthropic v. Department of War ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 27, 2:31 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.11%chance

2255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1255

964

Will the 2025-2029 administration close a federal department in the US before Jan 20th, 2029?

Nov 6, 8:41 AMJan 20, 10:59 PM

47.56%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

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