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Prediction markets for The Departed

Will the US Department of Education cease to exist during the Trump administration?

Nov 11, 11:36 PMFeb 21, 4:59 AM

7%chance

7821906

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1964

37

If elected, will Donald Trump dismantle the department of education as promised?

Jun 26, 4:34 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

66.55%chance

497562

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1436

722

If Trump or other Republican wins in 2024, how many cabinet level departments will be eliminated before the end of 2028?

Jun 18, 12:20 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

165400

OptionProbability

0

1

2

3

More than 3

62

25

6

5

3

Will NASA be folded into the US Department of Transportation?

Oct 21, 2:40 AMJan 1, 2:27 AM

2.55%chance

115324

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6186

162

Will the Department of Government Efficiency recommend cancelling Blue Origin's Human Landing System before 2029?

Nov 13, 3:34 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

4.64%chance

183985

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4535

221

Will the Justice Department win its antitrust suit against Google?

Jan 24, 6:00 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM

13.47%chance

292715

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2052

699

Will the Department of Government Efficiency recommend cancelling SLS before 2029?

Nov 13, 3:33 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

75.91%chance

152154

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1775

563

Any change to the list of 15 US Government executive departments through mid 2027

Jan 2, 8:12 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM

30.77%chance

9959

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1500

667

Will "Dispatch from Anthropic v. Department of War ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 27, 2:31 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.11%chance

2255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1255

964

Will the US Justice Department or a major outlet confirm “The Duke” in Epstein files is not Prince Andrew?

Feb 8, 4:05 PMFeb 7, 11:59 PM

31.64%chance

8209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

147

68

Will the 2025-2029 administration close a federal department in the US before Jan 20th, 2029?

Nov 6, 8:41 AMJan 20, 10:59 PM

47.56%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

Will the harvard OEB department get a pet axolotl by EOY 2032?

Sep 16, 7:52 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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