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Prediction markets for The Departed

Will the US Department of Education cease to exist during the Trump administration?

Nov 11, 11:36 PMFeb 21, 4:59 AM

7%chance

7821906

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1964

37

If elected, will Donald Trump dismantle the department of education as promised?

Jun 26, 4:34 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

66.55%chance

497562

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1436

722

Will the next Millennium problem be solved by an AI lab or a mathematics department?

Dec 21, 5:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

456998

OptionProbability

AI lab

Mathematics department

50

50

Will NASA be folded into the US Department of Transportation?

Oct 21, 2:40 AMJan 1, 2:27 AM

3.66%chance

104271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5133

195

Will the Department of Government Efficiency recommend cancelling Blue Origin's Human Landing System before 2029?

Nov 13, 3:34 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

4.84%chance

173885

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4435

225

If Trump or other Republican wins in 2024, how many cabinet level departments will be eliminated before the end of 2028?

Jun 18, 12:20 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

153650

OptionProbability

0

1

2

3

More than 3

53

28

8

7

4

Will the Justice Department win its antitrust suit against Google?

Jan 24, 6:00 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM

15.67%chance

262458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1818

739

Will the Department of Government Efficiency recommend cancelling SLS before 2029?

Nov 13, 3:33 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

75.91%chance

152154

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1775

563

Any change to the list of 15 US Government executive departments through mid 2027

Jan 2, 8:12 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM

47.56%chance

8509

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

952

Will Congress fund the Department of Homeland Security by February 13?

Feb 4, 2:30 PMFeb 14, 4:59 AM

41.7%chance

5385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1182

846

Elon's Department of Government Efficiency creates a leaderboard for the "most insanely dumb spending of tax dollars"

Nov 14, 12:15 PMApr 21, 4:59 AM

56.94%chance

3270

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1150

870

Any change to the list of 15 US Government executive departments through 2030

Aug 28, 6:28 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

57.31%chance

463

OptionVotes

NO

YES

135

124

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