The Dish News

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.34%chance

8146108

OptionVotes

YES

32243

2599

Will robots be able to load a dishwasher in the next five years?

Sep 23, 4:36 AMSep 24, 6:59 AM

88.36%chance

639902

OptionVotes

YES

2179

435

In what year will you first be able to take a picture of a meal and get an accurate calorie count?

Mar 26, 1:11 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

70.66%chance

221372

OptionProbability

YES

1235

642

Will credible evidence show OpenAI paid ≥100 NYC households to install indoor 360° cameras for home-activity recording?

May 24, 1:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.11%chance

131218

OptionVotes

YES

1774

564

Will I be able to purchase a house robot by the end of 2026?

Mar 13, 4:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.21%chance

18428

OptionVotes

YES

117

[Metaculus] Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?

Nov 2, 12:28 AMJan 2, 8:00 AM

24.19%chance

12328

OptionVotes

YES

239

161

[Carlini questions] Chance one can purchase off-the-shelf robot for under 100k$ that can do manipulation

Mar 24, 1:47 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

9303

OptionProbability

By 2030

By 2027

What year will the robot dishwasher market resolve?

Mar 13, 5:27 PMMar 21, 5:59 AM

4264

OptionProbability

2026-2027

2025-2026

2024-2025

2027-2028

2028-2029

2029-2030

What smart humanoid bots' capabilities will be showcased in videos by 2030?

Apr 1, 7:29 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

7258

OptionProbability

Executes a synchronized dance routine.

Completes an agility obstacle course within a set time.

Solves a Rubik's Cube in under 30 seconds.

Shoots and scores from the free-throw line.

Drives a car.

Hits a dartboard bullseye.

Performs CPR on a mannequin/human.

Prepares a gourmet dish.

Replicates a complex origami figure.

Kill a human

Plays a specific song on an instrument accurately after one listening.

Assembles a furniture that hadn't seen, by reading the manual.

Executes an Olympic-standard perfect dive.

By 2030, will dishwashers be considered as safe and effective as washing dishes by hand?

May 2, 1:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45%chance

6111

OptionVotes

YES

153

105

What will surprise my child the most in 2031?

Feb 24, 4:50 PMJan 5, 10:59 PM

1072

OptionProbability

There were no mobile phones: if someone did not show up at a rendezvous, you could only call him at home

It was allowed to smoke in bars and trains, even when children were present

The whole family used the same computer, which stood inside a dedicated piece of furniture

During holidays we used to eat from single-use plastic plates to avoid having to clean the dishes

During long car trips my mum and dad would take turns driving as it was tiring

Am I Intellectually Dishonest? [Permanent]

Apr 11, 9:06 PMApr 12, 4:59 AM

443

OptionProbability

YES

143

119

The Dish News

Prediction markets for The Dish

Prediction markets for The Dish

Prediction markets for The Dish

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Will robots be able to load a dishwasher in the next five years?

In what year will you first be able to take a picture of a meal and get an accurate calorie count?

Will credible evidence show OpenAI paid ≥100 NYC households to install indoor 360° cameras for home-activity recording?

Will I be able to purchase a house robot by the end of 2026?

[Metaculus] Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?

[Carlini questions] Chance one can purchase off-the-shelf robot for under 100k$ that can do manipulation

What year will the robot dishwasher market resolve?

What smart humanoid bots' capabilities will be showcased in videos by 2030?

By 2030, will dishwashers be considered as safe and effective as washing dishes by hand?

What will surprise my child the most in 2031?

Am I Intellectually Dishonest? [Permanent]

Latest stories