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Prediction markets for The Electric State

Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?

Oct 30, 4:19 AMJan 7, 4:59 AM

25.29%chance

155163135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1655

638

Will electric vehicles account for a majority of new light vehicles purchased in the United States by 2030?

Aug 16, 2:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.26%chance

7247679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1620

611

Will Century Aluminum's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 0.7 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

61.53%chance

52826

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12646

7908

Will UC Rusal's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 4.0 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

41.05%chance

32016

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11984

8344

Will Century Aluminum's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 0.7 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

56.73%chance

51566

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11450

8734

Will Vedanta Aluminium (Vedanta Limited)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.6 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

53.39%chance

4810

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10702

9344

Will MISO Indiana Hub 2027 day-ahead annual average exceed US$55/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

43.91%chance

2501

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10501

9321

Will UC Rusal's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 4.0 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

48.84%chance

2275

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10235

9770

Company employee count ranking change by end of year 2026?

Mar 29, 8:46 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

3273

OptionProbability

Walmart

China Railway Construction

Volkswagen

China National Petroleum

State Grid (state owned company, Chinese electricity grid)

United States Postal Service

IBM

Accenture

Hitachi

Foxconn

Amazon

68

59

52

51

50

50

50

48

48

46

41

Will MISO Indiana Hub 2028 day-ahead annual average exceed US$60/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

36.34%chance

3206

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10206

9628

Will Buick sell 20k+ EVs in the US in 2030?

Oct 5, 10:04 PMFeb 2, 5:59 AM

49.55%chance

2200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1009

991

Will at least three more U.S. states impose special electricity tariffs on data centers before Jan 1, 2028?

Feb 12, 5:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.41%chance

2159

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

851

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