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Prediction markets for The Electric State

Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?

Oct 30, 4:19 AMJan 7, 4:59 AM

27.9%chance

155163363

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1541

679

Will electric vehicles account for a majority of new light vehicles purchased in the United States by 2030?

Aug 16, 2:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.26%chance

7247679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1620

611

Will Century Aluminum's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 0.7 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

60.53%chance

816710

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12384

8075

Will Vedanta Aluminium (Vedanta Limited)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.6 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

67.94%chance

66109

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14556

6870

Will the MISO Indiana annual average wholesale electricity price for calendar year 2027 exceed 52 USD per MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

32.76%chance

43511

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12331

8645

Will MISO Indiana Hub 2028 day-ahead annual average exceed US$60/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

28.58%chance

42706

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12128

9013

Will UC Rusal's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 4.0 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

41.03%chance

42033

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11989

8341

Will Century Aluminum's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 0.7 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

56.79%chance

61580

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11464

8723

Will UC Rusal's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 4.0 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

48.84%chance

2275

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10235

9770

Will at least three more U.S. states impose special electricity tariffs on data centers before Jan 1, 2028?

Feb 12, 5:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.26%chance

6273

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1073

753

Company employee count ranking change by end of year 2026?

Mar 29, 8:46 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

3273

OptionProbability

Walmart

China Railway Construction

Volkswagen

China National Petroleum

State Grid (state owned company, Chinese electricity grid)

United States Postal Service

IBM

Accenture

Hitachi

Foxconn

Amazon

68

59

52

51

50

50

50

48

48

46

41

Will Buick sell 20k+ EVs in the US in 2030?

Oct 5, 10:04 PMFeb 2, 5:59 AM

49.55%chance

2200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1009

991

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