The Electric State News

Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?

Oct 30, 4:19 AMJan 7, 4:59 AM

44%chance

145153175

OptionVotes

YES

1056

945

Will electric vehicles account for a majority of new light vehicles purchased in the United States by 2030?

Aug 16, 2:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.25%chance

7043059

OptionVotes

YES

1192

816

NTSB's determined primary cause of the collision between American Eagle Flight 5342 and a military Black Hawk helicopter

Jan 30, 5:52 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

226988

OptionProbability

The NTSB's final report does not explicitly state that any of the above causes were the primary cause of the collision, or the final report identifies multiple equal causes, or the NTSB does not release a final report by December 31, 2025.

The NTSB's final report explicitly states that pilot error (from either aircraft) was the primary cause of the collision.

The NTSB's final report explicitly states that electrical or mechanical failure (whether due to unknown causes or explicitly due to a maintenance error) was the primary cause of the collision.

The NTSB's final report explicitly states that air traffic control error or any other form of air transport support staff error (excluding maintenance of the aircraft) was the primary cause of the collision.

Will the EU impose punitive tariffs on Chinese electric cars before 2030?

Sep 13, 9:37 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

92.84%chance

322779

OptionVotes

YES

2894

680

Crash of Learjet 55 - NTSB's determined cause(s) - Multichoice FFA

Feb 1, 1:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

61412

OptionProbability

The NTSB's report explicitly states that electrical failure (due to unknown causes) contributed to the crash.

The NTSB does not release a final report by December 31, 2025.

The NTSB's report explicitly states that pilot error (from any aircraft) contributed to the crash.

The NTSB's report explicitly states that electrical failure (explicitly due to a maintenance error) contributed to the crash.

The NTSB's report explicitly states that mechanical failure (due to unknown causes) contributed to the crash.

The NTSB's report explicitly states that mechanical failure (explicitly due to a maintenance error) contributed to the crash.

The NTSB's report does not explicitly state that any of the above causes contributed to the crash.

The NTSB's report explicitly states that mechanical failure (explicitly due to a design flaw or manufacturing defect) contributed to the crash.

The NTSB's report explicitly states that electrical failure (explicitly due to a design flaw or manufacturing defect) contributed to the crash.

The NTSB's report explicitly states that air traffic control error or any other form of ground-based air transport support staff error (excluding maintenance of the aircraft) contributed to the crash.

The NTSB's report explicitly states that an intentional pilot action (suicide, terrorism, etc.) (from any aircraft) contributed to the crash.

The NTSB's report explicitly states that an intentional passenger action (suicide, terrorism, etc.) (from any aircraft) contributed to the crash.

Will Formula 1 "Go Electric" (Remove Engines) before 2050?

Feb 20, 7:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.69%chance

22971

OptionVotes

YES

1078

858

Will Bitcoin experience "mining gaps" before the first 365-day period where transaction fees are >1/2 of total block rewards?

Dec 18, 9:07 AMMar 3, 4:59 AM

13.36%chance

14938

OptionVotes

YES

1277

916

Collision between American Eagle Flight 5342 and Black Hawk - NTSB's determined cause(s) - Multichoice FFA

Feb 1, 2:28 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14897