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Prediction markets for The Electric State

Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?

Oct 30, 4:19 AMJan 7, 4:59 AM

24.9%chance

153161899

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1673

632

Will electric vehicles account for a majority of new light vehicles purchased in the United States by 2030?

Aug 16, 2:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.79%chance

7147619

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1686

588

What universities will I get accepted into?

Dec 15, 10:31 PMJun 1, 11:59 PM

6412382

OptionProbability

MIT

Purdue

Drexel

UMD

Georgia Tech

Cornell

UC Davis

Princeton

UC Irvine

UC Berkeley

UPenn

Carnegie Mellon University

UIUC

100

100

100

83

53

46

37

30

29

22

19

16

0

China's public EV charging capacity exceeds 350M kilowatts by 2027?

Nov 29, 1:57 AMFeb 29, 11:59 PM

80.06%chance

152799

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2005

499

Will the EU impose punitive tariffs on Chinese electric cars before 2030?

Sep 13, 9:37 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

92.84%chance

322779

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2894

680

Will Bitcoin experience "mining gaps" before the first 365-day period where transaction fees are >1/2 of total block rewards?

Dec 18, 9:07 AMMar 3, 4:59 AM

13.48%chance

172458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1266

918

Will Formula 1 "Go Electric" (Remove Engines) before 2050?

Feb 20, 7:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.3%chance

261091

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

828

Will an electric vehicle have a range of >1000 miles by 2029?

Jan 14, 6:15 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

25.01%chance

7252

OptionVotes

YES

NO

231

43

Will Buick sell 20k+ EVs in the US in 2030?

Oct 5, 10:04 PMFeb 2, 5:59 AM

49.55%chance

2200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1009

991

Will at least three more U.S. states impose special electricity tariffs on data centers before Jan 1, 2028?

Feb 12, 5:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.41%chance

2159

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

851

Who will control the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant? 🇺🇦

Dec 29, 8:43 PMDec 30, 8:42 PM

465

OptionProbability

russia

America

Ukraine

Other

54

47

43

20

Will there be a psychedelics + closed-loop TMS paper by EOY2028?

Nov 11, 11:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

56.48%chance

451

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114

88

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