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Prediction markets for The Electric State

Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?

Oct 30, 4:19 AMJan 7, 4:59 AM

27.9%chance

155163363

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1541

679

Will electric vehicles account for a majority of new light vehicles purchased in the United States by 2030?

Aug 16, 2:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.02%chance

7348120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1630

607

Will Century Aluminum's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 0.7 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

61.52%chance

816970

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12644

7909

Will Century Aluminum's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 0.7 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

70.82%chance

811873

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15579

6419

Will UC Rusal's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 4.0 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

58.57%chance

69585

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11889

8411

Will UC Rusal's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 4.0 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

68.3%chance

49579

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14678

6813

Will Vedanta Aluminium (Vedanta Limited)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.6 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

74.42%chance

68609

OptionVotes

NO

YES

17056

5863

Will MISO Indiana Hub 2028 day-ahead annual average exceed US$60/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

28.61%chance

65770

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12116

9018

Will the MISO Indiana annual average wholesale electricity price for calendar year 2027 exceed 52 USD per MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

32.76%chance

43511

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12331

8645

Will at least three more U.S. states impose special electricity tariffs on data centers before Jan 1, 2028?

Feb 12, 5:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

97%chance

71844

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2644

20

By Dec 31, 2035, will any nuclear fusion power plant have delivered at least 100 MW of net electrical power, 30 day ave.

Oct 3, 11:21 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

10.57%chance

5333

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10062

9455

Company employee count ranking change by end of year 2026?

Mar 29, 8:46 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

3273

OptionProbability

Walmart

China Railway Construction

Volkswagen

China National Petroleum

State Grid (state owned company, Chinese electricity grid)

United States Postal Service

IBM

Accenture

Hitachi

Foxconn

Amazon

68

59

52

51

50

50

50

48

48

46

41

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