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Prediction markets for The Electric State

Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?

Oct 30, 4:19 AMJan 7, 4:59 AM

27.9%chance

155163363

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1541

679

Will electric vehicles account for a majority of new light vehicles purchased in the United States by 2030?

Aug 16, 2:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.78%chance

7247701

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1598

619

Will Century Aluminum's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 0.7 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

61.52%chance

816970

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12644

7909

Will UC Rusal's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 4.0 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

58.57%chance

69585

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11889

8411

Will UC Rusal's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 4.0 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

67.92%chance

49520

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14551

6872

Will Vedanta Aluminium (Vedanta Limited)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.6 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

72.05%chance

67609

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16056

6228

Will Century Aluminum's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 0.7 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

42.66%chance

74730

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11593

8626

Will the MISO Indiana annual average wholesale electricity price for calendar year 2027 exceed 52 USD per MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

32.76%chance

43511

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12331

8645

Will MISO Indiana Hub 2028 day-ahead annual average exceed US$60/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

28.58%chance

42706

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12128

9013

Will Formula 1 "Go Electric" (Remove Engines) before 2050?

Feb 20, 7:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.31%chance

261141

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1151

767

Will at least three more U.S. states impose special electricity tariffs on data centers before Jan 1, 2028?

Feb 12, 5:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.26%chance

6273

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1073

753

Company employee count ranking change by end of year 2026?

Mar 29, 8:46 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

3273

OptionProbability

Walmart

China Railway Construction

Volkswagen

China National Petroleum

State Grid (state owned company, Chinese electricity grid)

United States Postal Service

IBM

Accenture

Hitachi

Foxconn

Amazon

68

59

52

51

50

50

50

48

48

46

41

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