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Prediction markets for The Engineer

Will the first AI model that saturates Humanity's Last Exam be employable as a software engineer?

Mar 17, 11:31 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44.59%chance

7217103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1115

897

Will any fusion reactor project demonstrate engineering breakeven before the end of 2040?

Jul 13, 1:03 AMDec 31, 8:00 AM

87.1%chance

5614380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2208

675

Will there be a decline in software engineer salaries attributed to AI by the end of 2029?

Sep 12, 2:01 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

55%chance

545602

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1157

753

Will Google Search still be the most popular search engine by 2030?

Mar 17, 11:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

89.1%chance

343857

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2289

707

Will the number of human engineers in front end dev jobs be halved by 2027?

Apr 8, 8:43 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

11.93%chance

393848

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1748

831

Will the BLS show growth in software engineer employment through 2029?

May 7, 5:45 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

61%chance

302497

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1453

875

Will the number of human engineers in front end dev jobs be halved by 2030?

Apr 8, 8:44 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

35%chance

381866

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1416

634

Will the next Claude Sonnet be better than Claude 4.5 Opus at software engineering?

Jan 16, 4:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79.14%chance

181314

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1948

513

Will there be a decline in software engineer salaries attributed to AI by the end of 2027?

Sep 12, 2:01 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

30.86%chance

201193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1041

936

Will Google Search still be the most popular search engine by 2040?

Mar 17, 11:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.87%chance

23810

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1228

802

Will an AI chatbot overtake Google as the most used search engine by 2030?

Aug 3, 6:57 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

40.89%chance

8472

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1202

832

Will "Erasmus: Social Engineering at Scale" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 29, 3:39 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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