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Prediction markets for The Engineer

Will Meta have a "mid-level" AI engineer that can write code by the end of 2025?

Jan 13, 7:06 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

5.11%chance

7969133

OptionVotes

YES

NO

43807

2575

Will the first AI model that saturates Humanity's Last Exam be employable as a software engineer?

Mar 17, 11:31 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.93%chance

7016591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1307

765

Will any fusion reactor project demonstrate engineering breakeven before the end of 2040?

Jul 13, 1:03 AMDec 31, 8:00 AM

87.1%chance

5614380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2208

675

Will the number of human engineers in front end dev jobs be halved by 2027?

Apr 8, 8:43 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

12.33%chance

383798

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1698

838

Will the BLS show growth in software engineer employment through 2029?

May 7, 5:45 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

60.27%chance

282217

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1381

858

Will Google Search still be the most popular search engine by 2030?

Mar 17, 11:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

64.99%chance

301912

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1076

792

Will the number of human engineers in front end dev jobs be halved by 2030?

Apr 8, 8:44 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

43.71%chance

361493

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

775

At end of 2025, one of the top five software engineering AIs will be exclusively used by 100 or fewer tech companies

Feb 6, 3:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.68%chance

91308

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1901

526

Will there be a decline in software engineer salaries attributed to AI by the end of 2027?

Sep 12, 2:01 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

30.35%chance

201176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1058

928

Will Google Search still be the most popular search engine by 2040?

Mar 17, 11:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.87%chance

23810

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1228

802

Will the software engineer's salaries/ per capita GDP ratio be lower in 2026 than in 2022, per Levels.fyi?

Apr 2, 7:42 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM

50.91%chance

18681

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

984

Will an AI chatbot overtake Google as the most used search engine by 2030?

Aug 3, 6:57 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

42.45%chance

8445

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1164

859

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