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Prediction markets for The Engineer

Will the first AI model that saturates Humanity's Last Exam be employable as a software engineer?

Mar 17, 11:31 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

74.22%chance

7818700

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1697

589

Will any fusion reactor project demonstrate engineering breakeven before the end of 2040?

Jul 13, 1:03 AMDec 31, 8:00 AM

87.1%chance

5614380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2208

675

Will an LLM Agent discover a single significant contribution (+100 elo gain ) over the leading chess engine before 2028?

Nov 4, 5:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.64%chance

98202

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17028

5873

Will there be a decline in software engineer salaries attributed to AI by the end of 2029?

Sep 12, 2:01 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

61%chance

606855

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1290

657

Will the BLS show growth in software engineer employment through 2029?

May 7, 5:45 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

36.41%chance

386361

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1468

892

Will Google Search still be the most popular search engine by 2030?

Mar 17, 11:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

87.62%chance

364262

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2065

736

Will the number of human engineers in front end dev jobs be halved by 2027?

Apr 8, 8:43 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

11.93%chance

393848

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1748

831

Will the number of human engineers in front end dev jobs be halved by 2030?

Apr 8, 8:44 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

38.22%chance

391916

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1330

684

Will "Are there lessons from high-reliability engin..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 19, 1:31 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

39.97%chance

31683

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1218

298

Will there be a decline in software engineer salaries attributed to AI by the end of 2027?

Sep 12, 2:01 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

30.71%chance

211198

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1046

933

Will Google Search still be the most popular search engine by 2040?

Mar 17, 11:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.78%chance

24860

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1157

852

Will an AI chatbot overtake Google as the most used search engine by 2030?

Aug 3, 6:57 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

32.16%chance

9722

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1452

689

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