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Prediction markets for The Faculty

Will Noam Chomsky publicly admit his theory of linguistics is mostly wrong before turning 100?

Apr 13, 2:26 AMDec 7, 8:01 AM

1.27%chance

4812963

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7379

751

When will Principal's Day at Phillips Exeter Academy be in 2026? (Cash prize)

Apr 26, 2:48 PMJun 11, 3:59 AM

1712742

OptionProbability

At/After May 11, 2026

Before May 11, 2026

Before May 08, 2026

Before May 06, 2026

Before May 02, 2026

Before May 04, 2026

Before Apr 28, 2026

Before Apr 30, 2026

58

48

33

8

1

1

0

0

How many accusations of plagiarism against MIT faculty will be release by Bill Ackman’s investigation?

Jan 6, 1:52 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

432067

OptionProbability

1-10 Faculty

10-20 faculty

0 faculty

20-50 faculty

50-100 faculty

100+ faculty

39

28

12

9

8

3

Will the percentage of philosophers identifying as religious in the next PhilPapers Survey decrease?

Apr 13, 3:53 AMMar 16, 10:59 AM

81.59%chance

431354

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1403

843

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

131206

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

37

24

9

5

4

4

4

4

4

4

Will a conscious computer be built before 2050?

Nov 12, 9:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76.32%chance

131187

OptionVotes

NO

YES

858

36

What university will generate the highest number of new Nobel Laureate faculty between 2023 and 2033?

Jan 10, 7:06 AMFeb 2, 4:59 AM

5814

OptionProbability

Other

UC Berkeley

Oxford University

University of Chicago

Cambridge University

Harvard University

Princeton University

MIT

Stanford University

48

48

2

2

0

0

0

0

0

Larry Summer resumes teaching at Harvard by 2035

Dec 3, 4:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.55%chance

8655

OptionVotes

YES

NO

378

26

Will I get a job at Proof School by 2060?

Apr 8, 4:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44.54%chance

9208

OptionVotes

YES

NO

192

187

Will Tumbles become convinced that local realism is false before 2027? (quantum physics)

Jan 5, 11:04 AMJan 1, 12:20 PM

77.07%chance

280

OptionVotes

NO

YES

133

88

Will Alex Damian become a tenured MIT prof by EOY2031?

Apr 18, 7:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.77%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

67

When will one of the top 5 U.S. universities (HYPSM) fall out of the top 10?

Aug 6, 7:32 AMSep 30, 7:26 AM

110

OptionProbability

After 2045

2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

33

17

17

17

17

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