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The Faculty News

Will Noam Chomsky publicly admit his theory of linguistics is mostly wrong before turning 100?

Apr 13, 2:26 AMDec 7, 8:01 AM

5.78%chance

5319478

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1847

895

Will Ghent fire Nathan Cofnas before 2028?

Aug 20, 6:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.59%chance

3715489

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1705

586

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1510936

OptionProbability

None

(0, 200]

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

61

23

8

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

How many accusations of plagiarism against MIT faculty will be release by Bill Ackman’s investigation?

Jan 6, 1:52 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

432067

OptionProbability

1-10 Faculty

10-20 faculty

0 faculty

20-50 faculty

50-100 faculty

100+ faculty

39

28

12

9

8

3

Will the percentage of philosophers identifying as religious in the next PhilPapers Survey decrease?

Apr 13, 3:53 AMMar 16, 10:59 AM

81.59%chance

431354

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1403

843

Will a conscious computer be built before 2050?

Nov 12, 9:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76.32%chance

131187

OptionVotes

NO

YES

858

36

What university will generate the highest number of new Nobel Laureate faculty between 2023 and 2033?

Jan 10, 7:06 AMFeb 2, 4:59 AM

6824

OptionProbability

Other

UC Berkeley

Oxford University

University of Chicago

Cambridge University

Harvard University

Princeton University

MIT

Stanford University

79

14

3

3

0

0

0

0

0

Larry Summer resumes teaching at Harvard by 2035

Dec 3, 4:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.55%chance

8655

OptionVotes

YES

NO

378

26

Which philosophy subfields will be represented by 3+ PhD-holders at Manifest 2026?

May 18, 11:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8260

OptionProbability

Applied Ethics

Decision Theory

Formal Epistemology

Philosophy of Language

Metaethics

Philosophy of Mind

Philosophy of AI

Logic

Political Philosophy

Philosophy of Science

Ancient Philosophy

Continental Philosophy

Metaphysics

History of Philosophy (non-ancient)

80

76

68

55

50

50

50

45

41

34

24

24

0

0

Will I get a job at Proof School by 2060?

Apr 8, 4:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44.54%chance

9208

OptionVotes

YES

NO

192

187

What will be my GPA for fall 2026? (1st semester)

Sep 22, 6:05 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

363

OptionProbability

9 - 95.99

8 - 8.99

9.6 - 9.99

70 - 7.99

10.00

6 - 6.99

29

24

21

9

9

8

How many formal epistemologists will attend Manifest 2026?

May 18, 10:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

320

OptionProbability

3-5

1-2

6-10

10+

0

38

21

14

14

13

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