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Prediction markets for The Fall Guy

Will Donald Trump be president of the United States on 12/31/2028?

Dec 20, 2:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79%chance

5210685

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1082

992

Will I conclude my life is better 1 year from now than it was at time of market creation?

Aug 21, 2:43 PMAug 21, 2:39 PM

68.73%chance

201322

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1482

675

Will Donald Trump be president of the United States on 12/31/2027?

Dec 20, 2:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

88.01%chance

91042

OptionVotes

NO

YES

271

37

Will Shohei Ohtani be caught gambling before the end of 2033?

Mar 21, 2:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.56%chance

101042

OptionVotes

YES

NO

916

119

Will I become a Senate Page?

Dec 7, 5:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.85%chance

3555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

673

101

By which year will Apple change its naming/release schedule for iPhones

Aug 24, 5:43 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7287

OptionProbability

By 2027 (iPhone 19)

By 2030 (iPhone 22)

By 2029 (iPhone 21)

By 2028 (iPhone 20)

By 2026 (iPhone 18)

No changes until after 2030

By 2024 (iPhone 16)

By 2025 (iPhone 17)

83

81

80

76

50

50

0

0

[poll/stock - never resolves] How do Americans view Donald Trump’s political rhetoric (independent of politics)?

Dec 29, 7:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

211

OptionProbability

Negative

Positive

Agnostic/Neutral

45

28

28

Will a team that goes 2-2 in group advance to the single elimination round of the NBA In-Season Tournament by 2028?

Dec 2, 2:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19

OptionProbability

No

Yes

54

46

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