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Prediction markets for The Fall Guy

Will Donald Trump be president of the United States on 12/31/2028?

Dec 20, 2:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79.52%chance

6113074

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1076

1017

Will I conclude my life is better 1 year from now than it was at time of market creation?

Aug 21, 2:43 PMAug 21, 2:39 PM

68.45%chance

241548

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1473

679

Will Shohei Ohtani be caught gambling before the end of 2033?

Mar 21, 2:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4.51%chance

101192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1066

111

Will Donald Trump be president of the United States on 12/31/2027?

Dec 20, 2:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

88.14%chance

91075

OptionVotes

NO

YES

273

37

By which year will Apple change its naming/release schedule for iPhones

Aug 24, 5:43 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

8382

OptionProbability

By 2029 (iPhone 21)

By 2030 (iPhone 22)

By 2028 (iPhone 20)

By 2027 (iPhone 19)

No changes until after 2030

By 2026 (iPhone 18)

By 2024 (iPhone 16)

By 2025 (iPhone 17)

93

93

92

90

50

10

0

0

Will Model Intelligence diverge from consumer market share?

Apr 14, 12:44 AMApr 14, 12:30 AM

665

OptionProbability

Yes

N/A (unclear)

No

60

23

17

[poll/stock - never resolves] How do Americans view Donald Trump’s political rhetoric (independent of politics)?

Dec 29, 7:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

211

OptionProbability

Negative

Positive

Agnostic/Neutral

45

28

28

Will a team that goes 2-2 in group advance to the single elimination round of the NBA In-Season Tournament by 2028?

Dec 2, 2:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19

OptionProbability

No

Yes

54

46

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