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Prediction markets for The Fall
Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?
Dec 16, 2:35 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM
53.08%chance
91101678
OptionVotes
1064
940
If AI wipes out humanity will everyone on Earth fall over dead in the same second?
Feb 27, 7:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8.7%chance
14336408
OptionVotes
5405
1263
3. Donald Trump and Elon Musk will have a messy falling-out. This will have meaningful consequences for the world of AI.
Dec 27, 8:14 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM
80.14%chance
6116884
OptionVotes
2008
498
OptionVotes
1994
502
Will OpenAI inference costs fall by 100x over the next 18 months?
Aug 29, 5:23 PMMar 2, 6:59 AM
31.81%chance
225713
OptionVotes
1464
683
Will Iran get a nuclear weapon before the Islamic Republic falls?
Feb 1, 4:21 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
32%chance
263773
OptionVotes
1458
686
Will the World GDP rise or fall by at least 10% year over year in at least one of the next 10 years?
Aug 8, 11:05 PMAug 9, 9:59 PM
14.45%chance
243088
OptionVotes
1144
928
OptionVotes
1383
1098
Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?
Aug 8, 5:34 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
20.39%chance
51565
OptionVotes
5554
3487
Will the value of Chinese housing stock fall below 20% of current value? (By 2031)
Feb 9, 7:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
21.15%chance
25755
OptionVotes
1374
863
Daniel Kokotajlo’s P(Doom) falls below 50% before the end of 2027
Jan 13, 12:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
21.62%chance
12205
OptionVotes
1071
966
How will SANDAG prevent the LA/SD rail line from falling into the Pacific?
Jul 24, 12:13 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
00
OptionProbability
20
20
20
20
20