The Flash News

Finishes Virdian Forest before step 1073

Beats Brock before step 2381

Finishes Mt. Moon before step 8247

Beats Misty before step 9076

Defeats Surge before step 15266

Finishes Rock Tunnel before step 20426

Defeats Erika

Gets the lift key

Gets the lift key before step 20000

Gets HM02 (Fly)

Still in Celadon at 15,000 steps

Enters Erika's Gym or Rocket Hideout before step 50000

Enters Erika's Gym or Rocket Hideout before step 25000

Gets Silph Scope or defeats Erika before 30,000 steps

Gets Silph Scope

Gets a fourth badge before 35,000 steps

Gets HM03(Surf) or any fourth badge before 45,000 steps

Still in Saffron City at 35,000 steps

Still in Saffron City at 40,000 steps

Run ends/is reset because new Claude version is released

Still in Saffron City at 50,000 steps

Defeats Silph Co Giovanni

Defeats Koga

Gets HM03 (Surf) from the Safari Zone

Gets the Lapras in Silph Co.

Defeats Blaine

Defeats Gym Leader Giovanni

Catches Articuno/Moltres/Zapdos

Gets a fifth badge before 50,000 steps

Defeats Sabrina

Stores an item in the PC

Defeats the champion

Gets a bicycle

Gets Eevee

Gets HM05 (Flash)

Gets a fifth badge before 37,000 steps

Blacks out at least three times in Mt. Moon

new SOTA at MMLU

new SOTA at FrontierMath Tiers 1-3 from some gemini 3 model (deepthink counts)

new SOTA at FrontierMath Tier 4 from some gemini 3 model (deepthink counts)

DeepThink version released within 2 months of Gemini 3.0 Pro release

>=70% SWE-bench Verified (Bash only, per swebench.com)

Gemini 3.0 Pro METR time horizon of 3 hours or more

Gemini app tops App Store (#1) within 1 month of Gemini 3 release

Gemini 3.0 Ultra announced in main Gemini 3.0 announcement

Gemini 3.0 Flash released before Gemini 3.0 Pro (includes experimental versions)

native image-out capabilities on launch

DeepThink version of model released alongside Gemini 3.0 Pro

2M+ context window on Gemini 3.0 Pro

Technical Report is 90-140 pages

Technical report has 30-70 safety-related pages

Technical report has 3700-4200 contributors

Model card is 30-40 pages

YES

Alterniabound is interactable (includes reimplementations)

The music tracks "Sburban Jungle" on page 137, "Harlequin (Rock Version)" on page 476, and "Explore" on page 757 are all fully included

Page 1 is released on or before September 15 (CT)

Page 1 is released before the SpindleRoo Homestuck pilot is released

At least one multi-hour outage affects the site within the first month

Oil retcon present immediately when "John: Attempt to leave the house." is published

Comic takes longer than 120 days to fully release (all 8129 pages)

Most of the commentary included in the Viz books is included in the "new/exclusive content"

Toby Fox, Michael Guy Bowman, or Plazmataz publicly express dissatisfaction with the re-release before February 2026 (CT)

At least one Flash animation is replaced with a non-interactive video or animated image

Claude 4

GPT 5

Gemini 3

Claude 4.5

Kimi-K2 Thinking

GPT 5.5

Claude 5

Grok 4

Deepseek R2

Grok 3

Gemini 2 Flash Thinking

DeepSeek R1

Kimi-K2

GPT 4.5

Someone qualifies 12 balls in 2025

Eivind Dragsjo wins the 2025 Numbers Juggling League

Someone flashes 14 balls in 2025

Someone performs the trick f4444444444, from and to a cascade, before the end of 2026 (similarly to https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=42LOiJE5yLg)

At least 5 different endurance world records will be broken in 2025

Someone flashes 15 balls before the end of 2027

Someone flashes 10 clubs in 2025

At least 10 different endurance world records will be broken in 2025

YES

Add tooltips that explain how everything works

Let a user filter to markets in which they have positions

If the user enters a date, it should be treated as a range from the beginning of that day to the end, not just the single millisecond at which that day begins.

Make the choice of which markets to store locally smarter, so it won't accidentally cross the 5MB localStorage limit.

Add proper inputs for dates and drop downs for categories

Multi-buy in multiple-choice markets

Add a quickbet button where the user inputs their expected probability, and it calculates and places the appropriate Kelly bet size based on their portfolio.

Add a tiny graph/sparkline on each row to show how the market has changed recently

Generate RSS feeds for user-specified queries (like https://hnrss.org/newest?points=100)

Add support for arbitraging similar markets/answers, either treating them as summing to 1 or specifying a target relative change percentage.

Make a userscript that overrides Manifold's default search with Isaac's search

Add an option to display each answer on a multiple-choice market as its own row in the search results.

A column to display the market price X amount of time ago, input by the user

Allow users to define more than one dashboard, and share them via URL with other people

Option to show dates in a standardized day/hour/minute format that all lines up

Add a filter to only show markets the user hasn't seen before.

Make the search boxes look nicer so they're not just a giant pile of input boxes. Lay them out in columns or hide ones the user isn't using or something.

Add an OR conjunction for search terms, so people can search for something like "question includes 'altman' OR 'OpenAI'"

Open markets in new tab by default

Add a "concise mode", which removes all extraneous text from the table, like the percent sign, M$ sign, etc. and aligns them all nicely

Add fuzzy searching that can catch typos and synonyms

Let people resize columns, or add intelligent column resizing

Let people see the limit orders of a selected user in each market

Dark Mode

Add support for other platforms. Polymarket, Kalshi, etc.

Add tiny arrows in each column header as a visual indicator that they can click there to sort the column

Let people see the position of a selected user in each market

Add reminders to check back on a market after some time

Add direct links to user profile and/or group pages, maybe accessible by shift-clicking on them.

Check to see if any of the code has changed upon page load, and if so wipe the cached market data and reload it.

Let people see the profit of a selected user in each market

Fix the graphical issues that cause fields to unfocus and dropdown menus to disappear each time new data is loaded

Add some way for clicking on a group or creator to wipe the rest of the search. Maybe shift-click? Or maybe it should be the default?

Add more complex diff detection so that the client can catch up on what it missed if it loses internet for a few minutes, or at least tell the user it's out of date

Add hotkeys to make trading and searching even faster

Add more sensible step values to the numeric input fields

Allow people to place long-term limit orders

Make the "last updated time" field include edits to the market description

Somehow convince Manifold to waive the API fee if bets are placed via Predictionary

Make it look not-terrible (this suggestion is for aesthetics only, not functionally-useful layout/display features)

Allow users to see whether a multiple-choice market is select-one or select-multiple

Display who can add answers on a multiple-choice market

Give it a better name than Predictionary. (Suggestions welcome.)

Add support for Polymarket front-running. (https://medium.com/@eightyhi/blockchain-based-amms-arent-fit-for-prediction-markets-bbe6ad7a33ca)

Make a row flash when its probability changes

Add a bulk bet button that can bet on all markets in the dashboard

Fix the bug that causes some resolved markets to not be marked as closed

Add a way to view/query detailed historical market data

Add a one-click feedback form on the page itself

Add a filter/sort by recently subsidized

Add an option to change the height of each row such that it's proportional to the width of the interval between the previous market's close time and the next market's close time, so distance down the page represents time in the future.

Fix the bug that causes numeric markets to be displayed as though they were regular percentage markets.

YES

The door holder at the pickle all court, broken 2 months already, will be fixed by May 13?

The Starbucks door in Hillsdale mall, fixed by May 7th?

Broken tile in starbucks, Hillsdale Mall, fixed by May 12?

This insanely demolished little red car near Hillsdale High school will be gone by March 30 (it's been there for a week already)

This strangely flashing AT&T sign, by May 17 2024?

NO