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Prediction markets for The Games

Which game will win Game of the Year at the Game Awards 2025?

Dec 13, 11:48 PMDec 21, 1:29 PM

12577917

OptionProbability

Clair Obscur: Expedition 33

Hollow Knight: Silksong

Death Stranding 2: On the Beach

Kingdom Come: Deliverance II

Donkey Kong Bananza

Hades II

Civilization VII

Avowed

Split Fiction

Elden Ring Nightreign

Ghost of Yotei

Pokemon Legends: Z-A

Grand Theft Auto VI

Slay the Spire II

Metroid Prime 4: Beyond

Wanderstop

Monster Hunter Wilds

Blue Prince

Doom: The Dark Ages

Indiana Jones and the Great Circle

Mario Kart World

ARC Raiders

Dispatch

Other

95

2

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will the Wordle-like game "Fermi Questions" reach 100,000 unique visitors by December 31, 2025?

Aug 3, 3:32 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

2.79%chance

20763044

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14507

584

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?

Feb 20, 10:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

73.84%chance

25034655

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2610

1919

By the end of 2025 will there be a mostly AI generated game with $1 million or more in revenue?

Dec 5, 9:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.42%chance

16221107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7672

416

When will an AI be able to speedrun a popular video game faster than the human WR?

May 27, 5:02 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

1112701

OptionProbability

2026

2030 or later

2027

2028

2029

2025

2024

21

21

18

14

14

12

1

Will World Model AIs start being used in games in early 2026 and quickly start dominating the Game Development industry?

Aug 5, 8:43 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

7%chance

228377

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3645

274

SOAI#5: A real-time generative video game becomes the year’s most-watched title on Twitch.

Oct 9, 11:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.82%chance

285164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3696

271

Will a major video game released in 2026 have NPC dialogue generated on-the-fly by a Large Language Model?

Jan 12, 5:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.48%chance

373458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1193

845

In what state will the Kansas City Chiefs play a majority of their home games in the 2031 NFL season?

Jul 24, 2:54 AMJan 26, 5:59 AM

32771

OptionProbability

Missouri

Kansas

Other

75

24

1

Will a video game be played in the Olympics as an official event by the end of 2040?

May 7, 4:51 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.03%chance

241250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1259

469

Which one of week 15's NFL games will have the rarest score?

Dec 6, 12:26 PMDec 16, 5:00 AM

00

OptionProbability

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Las Vegas Raiders at Philadelphia Eagles

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs

Cleveland Browns at Chicago Bears

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals

New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots

Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans

Washington Commanders at New York Giants

Indianapolis Colts at Seattle Seahawks

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints

Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos

Tennessee Titans at San Francisco 49ers

Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams

Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys

Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

Where will the Athletics MLB team play their home games in 2028?

Jun 22, 11:13 PMApr 1, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Las Vegas (including Paradise)

Sacramento (including West Sacramento)

Somewhere within the San Francisco Bay Area

Somewhere else in California

Somewhere else outside California

20

20

20

20

20

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