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Prediction markets for The Games

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?

Feb 20, 10:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

65.4%chance

25635779

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2187

1991

When will an AI be able to speedrun a popular video game faster than the human WR?

May 27, 5:02 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

1418767

OptionProbability

2030 or later

2027

2026

2028

2029

2025

2024

25

20

19

16

16

4

1

Will Pope Leo XIV attend a professional sports game in the USA?

Dec 31, 9:39 PMDec 31, 9:39 PM

4.11%chance

3612334

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4832

207

Will World Model AIs start being used in games in early 2026 and quickly start dominating the Game Development industry?

Aug 5, 8:43 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

7%chance

249219

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3645

274

SOAI#5: A real-time generative video game becomes the year’s most-watched title on Twitch.

Oct 9, 11:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.81%chance

335935

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4447

225

In what state will the Kansas City Chiefs play a majority of their home games in the 2031 NFL season?

Jul 24, 2:54 AMJan 26, 5:59 AM

44553

OptionProbability

Missouri

Kansas

Other

56

43

1

Will Mexico still host all of the planned FIFA World Cup games this year?

Feb 25, 3:58 AMJul 20, 10:59 PM

87.09%chance

544094

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10078

9989

Will a major video game released in 2026 have NPC dialogue generated on-the-fly by a Large Language Model?

Jan 12, 5:47 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

38.48%chance

373458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1193

845

Will a video game be played in the Olympics as an official event by the end of 2040?

May 7, 4:51 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.03%chance

241250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1259

469

The game awards 2026: Flute guy blows into >3 instruments

Dec 13, 4:15 AMDec 11, 4:15 AM

29.22%chance

759

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

64

Will "Auditing Games for Sandbagging [paper]" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 11, 12:30 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Where will the Athletics MLB team play their home games in 2028?

Jun 22, 11:13 PMApr 1, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Las Vegas (including Paradise)

Sacramento (including West Sacramento)

Somewhere within the San Francisco Bay Area

Somewhere else in California

Somewhere else outside California

20

20

20

20

20

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