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Prediction markets for The Games

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?

Feb 20, 10:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

76.24%chance

24534490

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2846

1841

Will the Wordle-like game "Fermi Questions" reach 100,000 unique visitors by December 31, 2025?

Aug 3, 3:32 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

26.42%chance

17132620

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3315

1672

By the end of 2025 will there be a mostly AI generated game with $1 million or more in revenue?

Dec 5, 9:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19%chance

15516604

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3865

859

When will an AI be able to speedrun a popular video game faster than the human WR?

May 27, 5:02 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

1011851

OptionProbability

2026

2030 or later

2027

2025

2028

2029

2024

20

20

17

15

13

13

1

Will World Model AIs start being used in games in early 2026 and quickly start dominating the Game Development industry?

Aug 5, 8:43 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

7.53%chance

208210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3505

285

Will a major video game released in 2026 have NPC dialogue generated on-the-fly by a Large Language Model?

Jan 12, 5:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.93%chance

363190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1130

886

Will Pope Leo XIV attend a professional sports game in the USA?

May 20, 6:53 PMDec 31, 7:52 PM

40.87%chance

152391

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1203

831

In what state will the Kansas City Chiefs play a majority of their home games in the 2031 NFL season?

Jul 24, 2:54 AMJan 26, 5:59 AM

31771

OptionProbability

Missouri

Kansas

Other

70

28

2

Will a video game be played in the Olympics as an official event by the end of 2040?

May 7, 4:51 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.03%chance

241250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1259

469

Will 9 or More Series go to 7 Games Across the NBA, NHL, and MLB Playoffs in 2025?

Jan 24, 2:38 PMNov 10, 2:59 PM

50.07%chance

8667

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1001

999

Will a VR video game make the Wikipedia "best of all time" list by 2030?

Nov 8, 8:36 AMDec 31, 8:00 PM

70.44%chance

17348

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1079

958

Where will the Athletics MLB team play their home games in 2028?

Jun 22, 11:13 PMApr 1, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Las Vegas (including Paradise)

Sacramento (including West Sacramento)

Somewhere within the San Francisco Bay Area

Somewhere else in California

Somewhere else outside California

20

20

20

20

20

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