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Prediction markets for The Information

Will Manifold leak KYC information by the end of 2026?

Sep 20, 9:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20%chance

143892

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2000

500

It is possible for information to travel faster than the speed of light

Jan 8, 6:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

7.27%chance

192304

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1308

943

By 2050, will informed people significantly reduce their belief in the extent of free will they possess?

May 19, 8:29 PMDec 31, 7:00 AM

50.18%chance

171774

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

965

Will I endorse Ben Pace's "Sharing Information About Nonlinear" article was given what was known at the time, in 5 years

Sep 10, 10:38 AMSep 17, 10:59 PM

46.43%chance

91725

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1074

931

Will a reliable useful neural device that transmits information about users thoughts be released before the end of 2028?

Nov 6, 11:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.26%chance

181633

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1119

852

Will "The Information: OpenAI shows 'Strawberry' to..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Aug 28, 5:03 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

7.55%chance

21015

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1811

908

Will the Information Commissioner of Canada Resign in 2025?

Jul 18, 7:01 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

53.23%chance

6899

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

937

Will we find or make a wormhole to another observable universe that lets information flow both ways by the end of 2100?

Jul 27, 1:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.55%chance

15385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1104

965

Are AI and its effects are the most important existential risk, given only public information available in 2021?

Mar 24, 2:35 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

89.19%chance

14354

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1329

932

Will Congress ban the sale of USA citizen genetic information to foreign companies or organizations by end of 2026?

Jun 18, 5:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.16%chance

4119

OptionVotes

YES

NO

109

101

Will the S&P 500 "Information Technology" sector exceed 30% by 2025?

Mar 23, 12:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.7%chance

563

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

96

Will the CDC have any information on CHS by 2026?

Mar 11, 4:25 AMDec 31, 10:20 PM

58.81%chance

345

OptionVotes

NO

YES

161

122

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