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Prediction markets for The Information 50

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.2%chance

11636496

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14299

6435

What will OpenAI + Anthropic + xAI's combined revenue be by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 18, 4:47 AMDec 31, 4:59 AM

3727127

OptionProbability

Other

$90-100B

$80-90B

$100-110B

$110-120B

$60-70B

$70-80B

$120-130B

$130-140B

$50-60B

$40-50B

<$40B

16

13

11

10

9

8

8

7

7

5

3

2

When will AI-rendered video games have 1 million paid users?

Nov 20, 6:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2714038

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

51

48

43

41

34

10

Did the IDF bury hundreds of Palestinian civilians in mass graves near Nasser and Al-Shifa hospitals?

Apr 24, 2:46 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

27.7%chance

705955

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2407

2217

🎓 Will I complete my PhD?

Apr 11, 6:47 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

9.63%chance

344147

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2950

237

Will the Tadpole Experiment experiment be independently replicated in the next 10 years?

Jul 4, 10:42 PMJul 4, 10:40 PM

22.67%chance

41063

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1847

541

Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors?

Dec 25, 12:18 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.54%chance

17971

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

699

Will a song produced using Grimes' AI vocal resource pass $100K in revenue?

May 6, 4:10 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

54.2%chance

28925

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1197

654

Will Ilya Sutskever turn out to have been actively working in person and in contact w/OpenAI jan1-jan15 2024?

Jan 19, 5:56 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

19.93%chance

14535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1329

744

Great Hwan Empire or Proto-Finnic Holy Roman Khaganate reformation attempt?

Jul 8, 3:45 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

45.13%chance

4227

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1103

907

Comment new and relevant information on my Rumble Griftposting markets [50-200M]

Aug 10, 12:45 PMAug 10, 9:59 PM

00

Accurate information is more or less accessible than 50 years ago?

Apr 13, 6:13 PM

580

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