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Prediction markets for The Information 50

What will OpenAI + Anthropic + xAI's combined revenue be by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 18, 4:47 AMDec 31, 4:59 AM

90217127

OptionProbability

Other

$190-200B

$200-210B

$180-190B

$210-220B

$170-180B

$220-230B

$230-240B

$240-250B

$250-260B

$260-270B

$130-140B

$140-150B

$160-170B

$270-280B

$280-290B

$290-300B

$110-120B

$120-130B

$150-160B

<$40B

$60-70B

$70-80B

$80-90B

$90-100B

$100-110B

$40-50B

$50-60B

18

7

7

6

6

5

5

4

4

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.36%chance

12437063

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14097

6644

When will AI-rendered video games have 1 million paid users?

Nov 20, 6:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3818973

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

54

52

44

35

17

0

Did the IDF bury hundreds of Palestinian civilians in mass graves near Nasser and Al-Shifa hospitals?

Apr 24, 2:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29%chance

756080

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2300

2259

Will Russia control at least 95% of Donbass at the end of October 2026?

Dec 31, 1:00 AMNov 1, 11:59 PM

5.69%chance

385797

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3712

161

Will the White House Ballroom really be a ballroom?

Oct 26, 6:21 PMJan 20, 5:47 PM

535682

OptionProbability

No, less than half ballroom etc.

Yes, more than half ballroom etc

58

42

Will the winner of the 2028 U.S. presidential election be taller than the runner-up?

Feb 25, 4:53 PMJan 6, 11:59 PM

52.58%chance

111032

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1221

667

Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors?

Dec 25, 12:18 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.54%chance

17971

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

699

Will a song produced using Grimes' AI vocal resource pass $100K in revenue?

May 6, 4:10 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

54.2%chance

28925

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1197

654

Great Hwan Empire or Proto-Finnic Holy Roman Khaganate reformation attempt?

Jul 8, 3:45 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

45%chance

4230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

905

Accurate information is more or less accessible than 50 years ago?

Apr 13, 6:13 PM

580

Comment new and relevant information on my Rumble Griftposting markets [50-200M]

Aug 10, 12:45 PMAug 10, 9:59 PM

00

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