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Prediction markets for The Information 50

What will OpenAI + Anthropic + xAI's combined revenue be by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 18, 4:47 AMDec 31, 4:59 AM

95233914

OptionProbability

Other

$190-200B

$170-180B

$180-190B

$200-210B

$210-220B

$160-170B

$220-230B

$150-160B

$230-240B

$240-250B

$250-260B

$260-270B

$130-140B

$140-150B

$270-280B

$280-290B

$290-300B

$110-120B

$120-130B

<$40B

$50-60B

$60-70B

$70-80B

$80-90B

$90-100B

$100-110B

$40-50B

10

8

7

7

7

6

5

5

4

4

4

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

59.44%chance

12638679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12739

8335

When will AI-rendered video games have 1 million paid users?

Nov 20, 6:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3818973

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

54

52

44

35

17

0

Did the IDF bury hundreds of Palestinian civilians in mass graves near Nasser and Al-Shifa hospitals?

Apr 24, 2:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29%chance

756080

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2300

2259

Will the White House Ballroom really be a ballroom?

Oct 26, 6:21 PMJan 20, 5:47 PM

535682

OptionProbability

No, less than half ballroom etc.

Yes, more than half ballroom etc

58

42

Will the winner of the 2028 U.S. presidential election be taller than the runner-up?

Feb 25, 4:53 PMJan 6, 11:59 PM

58.28%chance

111122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1131

778

Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors?

Dec 25, 12:18 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.54%chance

17971

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

699

Will a song produced using Grimes' AI vocal resource pass $100K in revenue?

May 6, 4:10 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

54.2%chance

28925

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1197

654

Great Hwan Empire or Proto-Finnic Holy Roman Khaganate reformation attempt?

Jul 8, 3:45 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

30.52%chance

5770

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1509

663

Will Russia control at least 95% of Donbass at the end of January 2027?

Dec 31, 1:06 AMFeb 1, 11:59 PM

35.83%chance

13729

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1372

712

Accurate information is more or less accessible than 50 years ago?

Apr 13, 6:13 PM

580

Comment new and relevant information on my Rumble Griftposting markets [50-200M]

Aug 10, 12:45 PMAug 10, 9:59 PM

00

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