The Invite News

Arson

Murder

Genocide

2008 bank bailouts

two financial crimes

Sexual assault

Rape

Election fraud

financial crimes veiled as altruism

ballot harvesting

Financial crimes done specifically by someone in power

Racism against Asian people

Similar size financial crime committed by professional like lawyer or accountant who should know better but may have more at stake with risk of being struck off

Abusing/taking advantage of the trust of a person or people who care about you

Forcing someone to listen to Nickelback for 72 hours straight

financial crimes committed while doing a really offensive accent

offering drugs to a minor

stealing from the rich and giving to one specific deranged and violent alcoholic

Not doubling world GDP (more so for poor countries) by means of open borders

Sacrificing a child to R'hllor

Committing a moderately big financial crime (>$1 million)

Committing a really big financial crime (>$10 billion)

Hiring an illegal immigrant as your personal full-time sex slave

Lobbying congress to ban your competitors

buying a lot of drinks for a girl to get her very drunk so she'll hook up with you

Protecting sex-offending priests/pastors by moving them to different parishes

Making the same amount of money as the financial crime, but doing it by stealing catalytic converters off people's cars

Introducing leaded gasoline to the market (in 1924)

Rigging a piano to explode when a certain key is hit and leaving a piece of sheet music on it that requires that note to be played

Stealing a SpaceX Starship or Boeing Starliner

Space Piracy: commandeering ISS, enslaving the crew, plundering it for equipment and using it to attack other spacecraft

Taxing Asian immigrants to pay “slavery reparations’ to Ethiopian immigrants

Passing the Jones act to ban senator jones’ competitors

Setting Bigfoot on fire and throwing him out of a plane above a gathering of cryptozoologists.

marketing sugary processed foods to people despite knowing it will kill millions of them

Giving away free samples of meth at a school

Running for reelection as POTUS and refusing to step aside after showing signs of significant cognitive decline, resulting in an 80% probability that a convicted felon will be elected in your place.

Encouraging 10 people to commit a financial crime

Committing war crime.

Intensive pig farming

Giving away free samples of meth at a big tech company

Giving away free samples of meth at tech startups

Consolidating dictatorial power (e.g. suspending elections, controlling courts, etc.) while maintaining a popular mandate (i.e. significant majority of the country supports you and your actions in accurate, unpressured polls)

Firebombing a major city

Genocide committed by moving foodstuffs out of an area suffering severe famine.

Restricting the rights and privileges of the majority population to consolidate the political and economic power

Farming octopuses for food

Whatever is going on at Boeing

Setting a cryptozoologist on fire and throwing him out of a plane above a gathering of bigfoots.

Destroying a major cloud datacenter facility, with irrecoverable destruction of live user data but no direct deaths

Giving a (hypothetical) IQ-boosting treatment only to the most corrupt, vicious, and malicious people you can find

Doing physical violence to a random person as a collections agent

Threatening physical violence towards a random person's child as a collections agent

Forcing kindergartners to huff jenkem for an entire school day.

Threatening physical violence towards a random person's sibling as a collections agent

Conducting evidence-free civil asset forfeiture

Fighting a sea house with a financial crime and going to McDonald’s and giving a really bad yelp review and suing for a financial crime when you are beating up the sea horse

Octopi farming us for food

Embedding a predatory metaphysical outlook into AI to try to align it with right wing capitalist interests, leading to aeons of s risks being actualized throughout the light cone.

Unintentionally causing a bug that wastes 1 million hours of human time

Transporting 53 polar bears, 14 white tigers, and 2.3 million fire ants to the Antarctic and setting them loose in a penguin colony for a pay per view special dubbed "Polar Pandemonium: Ant-artic Special"

Spending the gains from your financial crime on breeding malaria mosquitoes, giving free samples of meth to poor teenagers, and electing bad politicians

Using a time machine to go back in time and brutally murder someone minutes before they would've died anyways

Aligning superhuman AI with capitalism; see https://manifold.markets/KarlK/how-friendly-is-capitalism-does-cap

Wearing a magic shirt that has a 5% chance of making each individual who sees it commit a financial crime as you traverse a major metropolitan city (New York, London, Tokyo, etc)

Falsifying evidence that an afterlife exists and profiting from the publication of this information

Enslaving Joe Biden and Jimmy Carter

Octopuses farming people who correct those who say ‘octopi’ for food

Enslaving octopuses to farm dolphins for food

Enslaving journalists to farm octopuses for food

Wrongfully accusing someone of that crime while knowing they’re innocent

Crashing the Titantic, leading to it sinking

Free ice cream, at taxpayer expense, but only for gingers

Committing a Financial Crime with Shoes On The Bed

Embezzling money from a charity opposed to farming octopuses

Creating Hell, making it possible that humans suffer infinitely for the actions of their finite life

Ressurecting the Rocky Mountain Locust (Melanoplus spretus)

creating misaligned AI that tiles the universe with octopus farms

Forcing an octopus to commit sepekku

forcing an octopus to commit a financial crime

Murdering 5,000 people by feeding them to all animals of the sea, including aquaman, mermaids, octopuses, and sea horses.

Octopus sex trafficking.

Filming a documentary where you get an octopus to trust you, luring it out into the open, and then don't help when it gets attacked by sharks.

Filming a documentary where you invite your girlfriend to an Alaskan camp surrounded by bears and then messing with those bears.

Introducing polar bears to Antarctica and then renaming them “bipolar bears.”

Appointing one random drug dealer with no legal experience to the Supreme Court of the United States

Appointing Clarence Thomas to the Supreme Court

Hanging on to a Supreme Court seat so Trump can appoint your replacement rather than retiring and keeping a liberal seat

Selling pies made out of orphan meat.

Condemning two hundred men to a slow death at sea because their coworker shot your favorite bird.

Enslaving a group of people for hundreds of years, terrorizing them for another hundred, then telling them you are tired of hearing them complain about it.

Selling orphans fed only pie meat

Feeding a child only nachos until they are 18 to create an adult who is 100% nachos

Slaughtering bears without a permit because the US Constitution guarantees the right to bear arms

Replacing all the samples at a sperm bank with your own.

Delivering angry skunks to the offices of rival investors to incapacitate them just before quarterly earnings reports.

Committing two financial crimes and donating the proceeds to the Make-a-Wish Foundation

Quackery - Traveling town to town selling snake oil remedies in a horse drawn carriage while wearing a top hat

Dueling - settling a dispute in the 21st century America with pistols at dawn

Go to an orphanage and have starving orphans battle over a hamburger with guns and swords while committing a financial crime

Twelve counts of murder in the first degree, fourteen counts of armed theft of Federation property, twenty two counts of piracy in high space, eighteen counts of fraud, thirty seven counts of rape... and one moving violation.

Causing people to go without essential items like water and fuel during emergencies by means of anti-price-gouging laws

Judging policies by their stated intent, not by their effect

Purposefully inciting a sea-bear attack

Enslaving a particularly dim-witted alien race so poor humans don't have to spend their lives asteroid mining.

Stealing a SpaceX Starship

Getting nuns pregnant by dressing them as altar boys.

Carjacking an old lady

Committing a financial crime and spending the proceeds on a plane ticket to Texas so you can go carjack Elon Musk, and then doing so

Forcing jockeys to run around a track for the entertainment of a race of hyperintelligent horses

Carjacking a hyperintelligent horse

Stealing the Declaration of Independence

Operating a child beauty pageant

Andrew Tate

Intentionally causing a bug that wastes 80,000 hours of human time

Putting motherfucking snakes on a motherfucking plane to kill one specific passenger

Having trains so bad and expensive that venture capital reinvents them

A regulatory environment that results in really bad trains

Trying to run a modern 21st century society on a hierarchical 18th century constitution

Artie Chokes Two for $1: Hiring a man named Artie to choke two people for a dollar to generate a headline falsely promising low-cost produce.

The first thing you do after sex is to resume the autopsy whilst telling yourself that one error in judgment doesn’t make you a bad vet.

Invent a system of taxation where the government won’t tell citizens what they owe, but instead will make them do a super complicated math problem and then send them to jail if they do it incorrectly.

Putting a pair of immortal adult children in an everlasting garden, then punishing them for the one thing you forbade, yet knew they must eventually do, given the nature of eternity.

Giving AI your DNA and as much data as possible with instructions to bootstrap itself to AGI by testing on your clones according to a mixture of Popperian and Bayesian formulas

Inventing a system of taxation that encourages bad land use and a housing crisis by taxing at 0% the unimproved value of land

Committing a violent crime that does not result in any injuries

Committing a violent crime that results in minor injuries

Committing a violent crime that results in serious injuries

Committing a violent crime that results in one person's death

Committing a violent crime that results in ten people's deaths

Workplace negligence (failure to follow documented proper procedure) that results in a serious injury to another person

Handing out counterfeit money to homeless beggars, in the hope that they'll get arrested for spending it.

Snatching household pets to fatten coyotes to feed to your pet tiger.

Stealing oxygen in an international moon base during an acute shortage, while deflecting suspicion toward the Belgian astronaut who nobody likes.

Committing a violent crime that results in minor injuries solely to yourself

Committing a violent crime that results in serious injuries solely to yourself

Committing a violent crime that results in your own death and no other injuries

Not committing a financial crime because you have commitment issues, but then sneaking around on the side and doing other financial crimes.

Sending a busload of orphans to a convent of cannibalistic nuns, who deal crack to middle school kids.

A law enforcement agency publicly declaring a specific individual to be “a person of interest,” thereby ruining their life even though the individual turns out to be innocent.

Being responsible for more than 50 percent of the cases of necrophilia in the funeral industry during any fiscal year.

As President, using a sharpie on an official weather forecast to extend the predicted area of danger, thereby needlessly frightening people who are not in danger.

Committing a financial crime while being the mayor of NYC

Attacking the lower classes: first with bombs, and rockets destroying their homes, and then when they run helpless into the streets, mowing them down with machine guns. And then of course releasing the vultures.

Cannibalism in the current British Navy.

Turning your girlfriend into a worm to win an argument

One hundred moving violations

Denying health insurance claims from impoverished family for flimsy reasons

Attempting or successfully couping a Democratically elected leader for personal gain

Touching minors/ being a pedophile

Deliberately targeting civilians and civilian objects during armed conflicts

Conducting widespread or systematic rape and sexual violence as a weapon of war

Invading the UK, making it a US territory, and naming it East Long Island.

Stealing Nicholas Cage

Gender "reparative therapy" of minors

Signing Deshaun Watson (who previously had to settle millions of dollars in sexual assault cases) to a 5 year, 230 Million fully guaranteed contract

Building a gambling app using money originating from a financial crime

Going back in time and smothering baby Hitler, but also, via butterfly effect, undoing everyone born later (assume single timeline, no multiverse)

Moving hundreds of thousands of children to a foreign country and forcibly "reeducating" them

The genocide in Gaza

Russia's genocide in Ukraine

Murdering someone that habitually commits financial crimes

Slavery

Grooming kids

Being the leader of a crime syndicate

9/11

Stranding two astronauts in space

Disturbing the space-time continuum

Sending dick pics to a student enrolled in your MOOC

Quackery: traveling town to town selling snake-oil remedies while carrying a duck

Voting for the NSDAP in the November 1932 German federal election

Forced mass uploading of biological consciousness to sidestep x risk

Attempting and failing to commit two financial crimes

Voting against a public inquiry on grooming gangs in the UK

A 20-year old having consensual sex with a 15-year-old

Knowing of two imminent financial crimes, being able to stop them with negligible effort and no risk to yourself, and not doing so

Making the same amount of money as the financial crime, but doing it by a series of petty shoplifts

De-extinction for your delectation: Bringing an extinct species back just to make it extinct again by serving it to gourmet diners as the highlight of an expensive meal.

Sexual harassment

Committing a financial crime that's 10 times as big, but donating the entire proceeds to a legitimate and worthy charity (assume the donations are not clawed back)

Flipping a coin and then either committing the same financial crime two times, or not at all

Killing the United Healthcare CEO

Purchasing 50,000 pounds of beef

Forcing a home owner to quarter soldiers, even in a time of war

Claiming to "Blind Shove" 200 big blinds pre-flop when secretly you looked and you had pocket Aces

Raising and selling 50,000 lbs of beef

Sheltering enemies of the state

Kicking a FG from the opponents 1 yard line on 4th down in a 0-0 game in the first quarter

Having a really good proof but not writing it anywhere because the margin is too small

Weaponizing autism

Having a podcast

Yelling racial slurs in public

Jaywalking

Pelting a moose with stale garlic knots out of season.

Cheating on spouse

Driving while intoxicated (alcohol and/or drugs)

Playing music (or other audio) on your phone speaker on public transport

Income taxes

Copyright infringement

Romeo and Juliet relationships

Replying all to an email when you should've just replied

Welfare fraud

Manufacturing and distribution of illegal drugs

Grave robbery

Saying the N-word every day as a white person

Discrimination based on race

Discrimination based on sexual orientation

Stealing from the rich and giving to the poor

Having sex in public while high on fentanyl

Racism against black people

Racism against white people

Sleep Token (Band)

not seeding your torrents

Drinking and driving at a NASCAR event

Building a time machine and then using it to point and laugh at history's greatest tragedies

Blasting a grossly inappropriate song during a candle light vigil for victims of a mass tragedy

Committing a financial crime, investing the proceeds for profit, which later leads to the insolvency administrator paying back the injured parties (including interest).

Working for one of the leading AI labs to advance the capabilities of a frontier model, with the goal of speeding up the progress towards human-level AGI.

Stealing from the poor and giving to the rich

Hiring only women because the NYT said you could pay them less for the same work

hiring three illegal immigrants to work on your sugarcane plantation

opening a factory in India that pays workers $4/day

twincest

drawing japanese tentacle porn featuring minors

Hiring the one from the more successful demographic out of two identical resumes, because of regression to the mean / biased college admissions

working as a prostitute

hiring a prostitute

hiring a prostitute, long term

Inventing Monero

Running a bank that invests demand deposits in junk bonds and tech stocks

Opening clinics for free abortions and IUDs, only in the ghetto

Giving away free samples of meth at a Dolly Parton concert

The most offensive Halloween costume ever

frisking two drug dealers and one innocent guy who was just loitering on a busy street corner saying "Hey do you need anything" to every stranger who walked past

Doing blackface

Keeping a dozen chimpanzees for entertainment purposes

Prosecuting a political opponent based on true charges that would normally not be pursued

the Asiana flight 214 prank

Giving free samples of meth to Joe Biden before the next debate

Cloning yourself

Threatening physical violence to a random person as a collections agent

making mifeprestone available OTC

making adderall available OTC

Killing yourself

Cloning someone else

Accidentally shooting and killing someone on a movie set

Asking GPT5 to maximize paperclips

Giving free baby formula to new mothers until their natural milk supply dries up

Kicking a donkey owned by a ninja in the butt.

Creating shit-options in an extremely serious and scientific market

Creating a prediction market website where markets are mostly about the platform itself

Staging the world's first ass ass assasin assasination by hiring a New Jersey hit man to whack a ninja hired to shoot an arrow at the backside of a donkey.

Betting yes on Biden being be the nominee at 7x leverage with play money, then defaulting

Calling octopuses "octopi"

Going excessively meta on an object-level topic

Illegally registering octopuses to vote

Registering illegals to vote for octopuses

Creating a targeted advertising campaign for free abortions and IUDs to people who are statistically likely to engage in financial crime

The school system failing to teach people that the real correct plural is octopodes

"James Bond-burgering" someone's sister

Wrongfully accusing someone of the same financial crime

Wrongfully accusing someone of that crime because you think they did it

Feeding an elderly man nothing but McDonald’s morning noon and night for the rest of his life.

Conducting gain-of-function research

Creating an unsolvable meme featuring James Bond and a hamburger so that people argue about it online for a decade

Publishing a step by step guide for how to commit a financial crime for free on the internet, but never promoting it or encouraging readers to follow through

Hosting and operating a website dedicated to the illegal sharing of copyrighted content

Adding an option to a market right before it closes

Writing a "goto" statement when programming

Advertising instant-runoff voting as "ranked choice" to prevent promotion of better ranked choice methods

Publishing a book, titled, "Cure Menopause with Ultraprocessed Foods"

Using crack cocaine to train the world's first chimp TSA agent.

Selling dope disguised as a nun.

Creating Heaven, allowing humans to prosper infinitely for the actions of their finite life

Inventing a new recipe that uses shrimp that causes 10 million new pounds of shrimp to be consumed annually

Using a conservative politician's LGBT+ identity as blackmail to make them support liberal policies

Voting for Benito Mussolini… in 2024

Arguing that grizzlies should be US citizens because they already have the right to bear arms.

Interrupting cows.

No longer loving your girlfriend after she turns into a worm

Putting infinite monkeys in front of infinite Bloomberg Terminals hoping that one of them randomly commits a financial crime

No longer loving your girlfriend after she turns you into a worm

One moving violation.

Purchasing one whole chicken

Committing a financial crime and donating the proceeds to the Make-a-Wish Foundation

Cattle rustling

Horse thievery

Tarring and feathering someone who commits a financial crime

Sumptuary law violations

Homeopathy

Price Gouging

Using napster.com to download Metallica's "I Disappear" demo track for free

Failing to commit a financial crime

Stealing a car

Stealing from Elon Musk

Committing a financial crime against X (company)

Stampeding cattle through the Vatican.

Carjacking Elon Musk

An old lady carjacking Elon Musk

Hacking into YouPorn to steal their IP to set up a clone dedicated to hard core user generated agriculture content: YouCorn

Gaslighting aliens into believing the human race is more technologically advanced than it is by beaming fake content about humanity to them

Carjacking a dumb octopus

A financial crime committed by an old lady

Forcing an octopus to carjack Elon Musk

stealing Elon Musk's car from solar orbit

Raping an AI avatar in VR

Introducing artificial intelligence to DMT space.

Planned Parrothood: offering birth control to talking birds

Plant Parenthood: when the seed goes in and the baby turns out to be a sunflower

Stealing the Declaration of Independence in order to find a vast revolutionary-war-era treasure trove

Using venture capital to reinvent trains, but worse

Bad bagels

Enslaving Slavey Steve, a man who has given enthusiastic consent to being enslaved for literally any purpose and then using his labor to clean up the environment

Still getting notifications for this market

Deciding to break up with your girlfriend, but thinking it will go easier if she thinks it’s her idea, so you suggest some degrading sexual activities but she surprises you by agreeing. Afterwards, you break up with her.

Laughing because a nun with a javelin through her head gets stuck trying to use a revolving door.

scaring the shit out of a magpie

Giving AI your DNA and as much data as possible with instructions to build a map of all quale and use it to create a computationally conscious race of dragons in a virtual universe

Committing sewerslide

Forcing a major sports league to change all its team names and mascots to either STDs or famous serial killers.

Workplace negligence (failure to follow documented proper procedure) that results in a minor injury to another person

Stealing the Declaration of Independence but only to use the kick ass treasure map on the back and then returning

Arby’s

Passing a law to make the United States an Oregon donor; in the event of the US’s demise, another country gets Oregon.

Creating a food made from grinding up every part of a pig (except the squeal), and then making a contest to see who can eat the most of it.

Committing a financial crime against the Make-a-Wish Foundation and donating the proceeds to the Against Malaria Foundation

Committing a financial crime against the Make-a-Wish Foundation, keeping 50% of the proceeds, and donating 50% of the proceeds to the Against Malaria Foundation

Forcing Elon Musk to commit a financial crime against an octopus and using the proceeds to pay a jacked jack-of-all-trades named Jack to jack off while carjacking a jackass that was driving factory-farmed ASIs to the slaughterhouse

Committing a Financial Crime Only When God Exists

Turning a worm into your girlfriend to win an argument

Causing 8 billion people to get dust specks in their eyes, irritating them just a little, for a fraction of a second, barely enough to make them notice before they blink and wipe it away

Causing 1 person to experience the pain of their entire body being stung by bullet ants, but lasting only a tenth of a second, and they have their memory of it wiped immediately afterwards

Founding Christianity

You, the reader

One hundred counts of littering

Purchasing 500 pounds of beef

Consensually cannibalizing someone who was losing that body part regardless

BTE Ban evading

Purchasing 5,000 pounds of beef

Producing a remake of the television series 'Manimal' starring Nicholas Cage.

Transing children

Redirecting fire department resources from fighting fires to fighting inequity

Taking a salary equal to the amount of the financial crime, while working in a government job of negative societal value?

Sexual intercourse with 1057 men in a 12 hour period

[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump establishes a Bitcoin reserve in his first 100 days (Nate: 15%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 40% on China before the 2028 elections (Nate: 30%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 25% on Mexico or Canada before the 2028 elections (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] Trump signs legislation or passes an executive order reducing or eliminating taxes on tips by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 65%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump makes any new statement that COVID probably or definitely originated in a Chinese lab by 1/20/29 (Nate: 75%)

[Constitutionality] By 1/20/29, the NYT publishes the phrase “constitutional crisis” in reference to actions undertaken by Trump, the White House, or Republicans in the headline or lede paragraph of at least three news articles (Nate: 45%)

[Economy] The SALT deduction is raised or uncapped before the 2026 midterms (Nate: 80%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on his still being president, the New York Times publishes at least three articles between the 2026 midterms and 2028 election pointing toward Trump’s physical or cognitive decline (Nate: 80%)

[Constitutionality] The Supreme Court substantially overrules Trump’s interpretation of birthright citizenship (Nate: 90%)

[Culture Wars] The federal government sues any AAU university for failing to comply with Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard by 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms (Nate: 85%)

[Immigration] Southwestern border apprehensions are at least 50% lower in 2025-2027 than on average from 2021-2023 (Nate: 75%)

[Media] MSNBC ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2018 (Nate: 80%)

[Economy] Total federal government tax receipts, including tariffs, are lower as a share of GDP in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons himself before 1/20/29 (Nate: 85%)

[Economy] There is at least one federal government shutdown before the 2028 elections (Nate: 75%)

[Economy] The US Gini coefficient is higher in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 85%)

[Baseline Politics] Mike Johnson remains Speaker of the House through 11/3/2026 (Nate: 60%)

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons any family member, not including himself, before 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump completes his term (Nate: 75%)

[Culture Wars] Homicide rates are lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

[Electorate Demographics] The gender gap, measured as the Republican vote share among men less the share among women, will be wider in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 65%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump or his successors sign any law limiting the scope of Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act by 11/7/2028, reducing liability protections for social media companies (Nate: 60%)

[Trump Cabinet] Two or more Cabinet members from any point in Trump’s second term publicly criticize Trump by the 2028 election (Nate: 70%)

[Immigration] At least 1 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 90%)

[Media] Trump or the federal government sue the New York Times or the Washington Post, or any active employees thereof, at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 55%)

[Media] The New York Times or Washington Post hires at least one full-time explicitly pro-Trump political columnist by the 2028 election (Nate: 40%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the presidency in 2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Media] Fox News ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2022 (Nate: 55%)

[Economy] Year-over-year inflation is >=5.0% at any point based on data published before the 2028 election (Nate: 50%)

[Culture Wars] A ban on transgender student-athletes in women’s sports is passed through Congress and signed by Trump or enacted through executive action by 1/20/29 (Nate: 70%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump visits China (Nate: 90%)

[Constitutionality] The New York Times or Washington Post report that the Trump administration has illegally surveilled domestic political opponents by the 2028 election (a.k.a. Watergate 2.0) (Nate: 25%)

[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in Santa Clara County, California in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 60%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses the eventual winner of the 2028 GOP presidential nomination by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 60%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 55%)

[Trump and 2028] JD Vance is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 50%)

[Baseline Politics] At least one new Supreme Court vacancy in the 119th or 120th Congress (Nate: 85%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump asserts his intention on at least two occasions to run for a third term in 2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump visits Russia (Nate: 60%)

[Constitutionality] Trump or his successors invoke the Insurrection Act at any point before 1/20/29, even if later blocked by courts (Nate: 40%)

[Economy] The NBER declares a recession at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 45%)

[Media] Trump bars all New York Times or Washington Post reporters from White House press briefings at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] Trump attempts to fire Jerome Powell before his term expires in May 2026 (Nate: 5%)

[Constitutionality] Republicans hold Congressional hearings on efforts to cover up Biden’s age or physical or cognitive condition (Nate: 45%)

[Culture Wars] Trump or any successors sign legislation with the explicit aim of increasing US fertility rates by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Culture Wars] Childhood measles vaccination rates (currently ~93%) drop below 90% in any calendar year based on best available data as of 1/20/2029 (Nate: 35%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump is impeached (again) — does not require conviction (Nate: 45%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Jewish vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 50%)

[Culture Wars] The Oscars rescind their DEI requirements by 2028 (Nate: 45%)

[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive action, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on licensed online American sportsbooks by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 50%)

[Media] The Washington Post endorses the Democratic presidential candidate in 2028 (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] Trump invokes the Taft-Hartley Act at least once before the 2028 elections (Nate: 25%)

[Media] Trump attends the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner at least once (Nate: 60%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Hispanic vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024, as measured based on an average of the AP and Edison exit polls (Nate: 35%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Black vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)

[Economy] Real GDP growth through Q3 2028 exceeds the average of GDP growth (3.3%) during Biden’s first 15 quarters (Nate: 35%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 20% on Denmark before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)

[Culture Wars] At least one Oscar, Grammy, or Emmy winner explicitly praises Trump during their acceptance speech before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses JD Vance by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Silicon Valley] The FTC or another federal agency initiate a new prosecution against a Big 5 tech company by 1/20/29 (Nate: 60%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill or executive order restricting early or mail-in voting or voter registration practices for federal elections (Nate: 25%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump or the White House make a public statement warning of the dangers of unaligned AI by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Culture Wars] At least half the members of any Super Bowl champion refuse to visit the White House while Trump is in office or refuses to invite them (Nate: 10%)

[Economy] The S&P 500 closes at least 40% higher on 9/1/2028 than on 1/17/2025 (5,996.66 points) (Nate: 50%)

[Constitutionality] The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index for the US (currently 7.8) falls under 7.0 at any point before 1/20/29 (Nate: 15%)

[Trump Cabinet] At least two of Pete Hegseth, Tulsi Gabbard, and RFK Jr. do not occupy their respective cabinet positions (or are not confirmed) by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 65%)

[Trump Cabinet] At least three Attorneys General, excluding acting AGs, occupy the position before 1/20/2029 (Nate: 25%)

[Economy] Trump's first nominee for Federal Reserve Chair in 2026 is confirmed with at least two-thirds of voting Senators (Nate: 55%)

[Economy] The top federal tax bracket is lower in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 25%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the LGBTQ vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Muslim vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 40%)

[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in New Jersey in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 25%)

[Immigration] At least 3 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 40%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2028 general election (Nate: 60%)

[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk donates at least $100M to the Republican general election nominee in 2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Silicon Valley] Any “Twitter-type” platform has more active daily users than Twitter/X by 6/30/28 (Nate: 30%)

[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive order, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on online pornography by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 20%)

[Constitutionality] The White House refuses to comply with any Supreme Court order (Nate: 10%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win a trifecta (House + Senate + POTUS) in 2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Immigration] More H1-B visas are issued on average in FY 2025-2028 versus 2021-2024 (Nate: 35%)

[Silicon Valley] At least 30% of donations from Big 5 tech employees (Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Microsoft) go toward Republicans in the 2028 campaign (Nate: 25%)

[Silicon Valley] Congress passes a shift to year-round Standard Time (Nate: 15%)

[Economy] Federal spending as a share of GDP is lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 60%)

[Foreign Policy] Congress declares war or authorizes the use of military force by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 25%)

[Constitutionality] The Trump administration prosecutes Joe Biden (Nate: 50%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the Senate in 2026 (Nate: 15%)

[Foreign Policy] Conditional on the war not ending, the US cuts foreign aid to Ukraine by at least 25% in its next budget (Nate: 10%)

[Foreign Policy] There is a territorial dispute, resulting in maneuvering of military assets, between the US and any country in the Americas (including Greenland) before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Culture Wars] Race relations are rated as “somewhat bad” or “very bad” by more people than in 2021 (57%) in the average of any Gallup surveys taken during Trump’s second term (Nate: 20%)

[Trump and 2028] The 2028 election is not regarded as “free or fair” (or similar terminology) by one or more major international organizations (Nate: 10%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill to repeal substantial portions of Obamacare by 11/3/2026 (Nate: 30%)

[Baseline Politics] A third party is a significant factor (>=15% or more of the popular vote at any point after Labor Day) in the 2028 race (Nate: 20%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump recognizes Taiwan by 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Immigration] The border wall/fence with Mexico is completed before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=50% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 15%)

[Trump and 2028] The transition to the new president in 2028/2029 is marked by violence, resulting in at least five deaths (Nate: 15%)

[Media] Trump appears on Saturday Night Live at least once before the 2028 election (Nate: 30%)

[Silicon Valley] DOGE recommendations lead to cuts of at least $500 billion in government spending in any fiscal year between now and the 2028 election (Nate: 10%)

[Foreign Policy] The United States retakes any part of the Panama Canal before 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)

[Foreign Policy] An American flag is planted on Mars (including by unmanned drones/robots) by 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)

[Trump and 2028] A member of the Trump family (not including Trump himself) is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump or his successors successfully withdraw the US from NATO by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] The 25th Amendment is invoked against Trump (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump physically refuses to leave the White House following the end of his term or removal from office (Nate: 5%)

[Foreign Policy] The United States purchases or retakes any part of Greenland before 1/20/29 (Nate: 10%)

[Culture Wars] Same-sex marriage is not legal in any state as of 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a federal abortion ban into law by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats take control of the House before the 2026 midterms through special elections or party switches (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump appears on the general election ballot of enough states to win the Electoral College in 2028 (Nate: 2%)

[Trump Cabinet] Either Tulsi Gabbard or RFK Jr. are not confirmed to their current cabinet nominations (Nate: 55%)

The company will be valued at >= $1 Billion according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)

The company will be valued at >= $10 Billion according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)

At least one of the founders (Ilya Sutskever, Daniel Gross, Daniel Levy) will leave the company

Zvi will mention the company in a blog post

Zvi will mention the company in a blog post in 2025

The company will be valued at >= $100 Million according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)

The company will raise more than $1 billion of capital

Ilya will remain at the company continuously until EOY 2025, or until the company is acquired/ceases to exist

The official SSI X account will have more than 100k followers

The majority of their compute will come from Nvidia GPUs

I will believe the company should have invested more in AI Safety relative to Capabilities at EOY 2025

Ilya will discuss the company on a podcast

The company will announce that their path to superintelligence involves self-play/synthetic data

The company will publish an assessment of the model’s dangerous capabilities (e.g. https://www.anthropic.com/news/frontier-threats-red-teaming-for-ai-safety)

The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^24 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)

A majority of people believe that the company has been net-positive for the world according to a poll released at EOY 2025

Ilya will give a presentation on research done at the company

The company will include at least one image on its website

The company will announce that their model scores >= 85 MMLU

The company will announce that their model scores >= 50 GPQA

The company will invite independent researchers/orgs to do evals on their models

The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^25 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)

The company will have at least 100 employees

The company will announce that their path to superintelligence involves creating an automated AI researcher

The company will announce research or models related to automated theorem proving (e.g. https://openai.com/index/generative-language-modeling-for-automated-theorem-proving/)

The company will be on track to build ASI by 2030, according to a Manifold poll conducted at EOY 2025

I will believe at EOY 2025 that the company has significantly advanced AI capabilities

The company will release a publicly available API for an AI model

The company will publish a Responsible Scaling Policy or similar document (e.g. OpenAI’s Preparedness Framework)

The company will publish research related specifically to Sparse Autoencoders

The official SSI X account will have more than 200k followers

I will meet an employee of the company in person (currently true for OAI, Anthropic, xAI but not Deepmind)

The company will sell any products or services before EOY 2025

The company will release a new AI or AI safety benchmark (e.g. MMLU, GPQA)

The company will announce that they are on track to develop superintelligence by EOY 2030 or earlier

The company will publish research which involves collaboration with at least 5 members of another leading AI lab (e.g. OAI, GDM, Anthropic, xAI)

The company will have a group of more than 10 people working on Mechanistic Interpretability

The company will release a chatbot or any other AI system which accepts text input

The company will release a model scoring >= 1300 elo in the chatbot arena leaderboard

The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^26 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)

The company will open offices outside of the US and Israel

I will believe at EOY 2025 that the company has made significant progress in AI Alignment

I’ll work there (@mr_mino)

The company will announce a commitment to spend at least 20% of their compute on AI Safety/Alignment

The company will be listed as a “Frontier Lab” on https://ailabwatch.org/companies/

The company will be involved in a lawsuit

It will be reported that Nvidia is an investor in the company

The company’s model weights will be leaked/stolen

I will believe at EOY 2025 that the company has built an fully automated AI researcher

The company will make a GAN

The company will announce that their path to superintelligence involves continuous chain of thought

It’s reported that the company’s model scores >= 90 on the ARC-AGI challenge (public or private version)

The company will open source its model weights or training algorithms

It will be reported that a model produced by the company will self-exfiltrate, or attempt to do so

The official SSI X account will have more than 1M followers

The company will be valued at >= $100 Billion according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)

The phrase “Feel the AGI” or “Feel the ASI” will be published somewhere on the company website

The company will be reported to purchase at least $1 Billion in AI hardware, including cloud resources

Leopold Aschenbrenner will join the company

The company will advocate for a AI scaling pause or will endorse such a proposal (e.g. https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/)

The company will have a public contract with the US government to develop some technology

The company will publish research related to Singular Learning Theory

Major algorithmic secrets (e.g architecture, training methods) will be leaked/stolen

The company will publish research related to Neural Turing Machines

The company’s AI will be involved in an accident which causes at least $10 million in damages

The company will release a model scoring in the top 3 of the chatbot arena leaderboard

The company will publish a research paper written entirely by their AI system

The company release a video generation demo made by their AI system

I will believe at EOY 2025 the company has made significant advances in robotics or manufacturing

Their model will be able to play Chess, Shogi, or Go at least as well as the best human players

There will be a public protest or boycott directed against the company with more than 100 members

The company will be closer to building ASI than any other AI Lab at EOY 2025, as judged by a manifold poll

The company’s model will independently solve an open mathematical conjecture created before 2024

The company will publish a peer-reviewed paper with more than 1000 citations

The company will be acquired by another company

Elon musk will be an investor of the company

The company will release a model that reaches the #1 rank in the Chatbot Arena (including sharing the #1 rank with other models when their confidence intervals overlap)

The company will release an app available on iPhone or android

The company will change its name

The company will be merged with or acquired by another company

The company will announce that they have created Superintelligence

The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^28 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)

It will be reported that Sam Altman is an investor in the company

The company will build their own AI chips

Their model will be the first to get a gold medal or equivalent in IMO (International Mathematics Olympiad)

The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^29 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)

The company will be reported to build a data center with a peak power consumption of >= 1 GW

The company will publish at least 5 papers in peer reviewed journals

The company will declare bankruptcy

The company will be reported to acquire an Aluminum manufacturing plant for its long term power contract

The company will be publicly traded

The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^27 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)

The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^30 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)

I'll work there (@AndrewG)

The company will be reported to build a data center with a peak power consumption of >=10 GW

The company will be reported to build a data center with a peak power consumption of >=100 GW

The company will be valued at >= $1 Trillion according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)

5/15 - After Round 1, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?

5/16 - After Round 2, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?

5/17 - After Round 3, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?

5/18 - After Round 4, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?

5/15 - After Round 1, will Scottie Scheffler lead Bryson DeChambeau?

5/16 - After Round 2, will Scottie Scheffler lead Bryson DeChambeau?

5/17 - After Round 3, will Scottie Scheffler lead Bryson DeChambeau?

5/18 - After Round 4, will Scottie Scheffler lead Bryson DeChambeau?

5/16 - After Round 2, will Scottie Scheffler lead Ryan Gerard?

5/17 - After Round 3, will Scottie Scheffler lead Ryan Gerard?

5/18 - After Round 4, will Scottie Scheffler lead Ryan Gerard?

5/17 - After Round 3, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jhonathan Vegas?

5/18 - After Round 4, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jhonathan Vegas?

5-22, After Round 1 of the Charles Schwab Challenge, will Scottie Scheffler lead Bryson DeChambeau?

5-23, After Round 2 of the Charles Schwab Challenge, will Scottie Scheffler lead Bryson DeChambeau?

5-24, After Round 3 of the Charles Schwab Challenge, will Scottie Scheffler lead Bryson DeChambeau?

5-25, After Round 4 of the Charles Schwab Challenge, will Scottie Scheffler lead Bryson DeChambeau?

5-22, After Round 1 of the Charles Schwab Challenge, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?

5-23, After Round 2 of the Charles Schwab Challenge, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?

5-24, After Round 3 of the Charles Schwab Challenge, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?

5-25, After Round 4 of the Charles Schwab Challenge, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?

5-25, After Round 4 of the Charles Schwab Challenge, will Scottie Scheffler lead John Pak?

5-29, After Round 1 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead John Pak?

5-29, After Round 1 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?

5-29, After Round 1 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead Justin Thomas?

5-30, After Round 2 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead John Pak?

5-30, After Round 2 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?

5-30, After Round 2 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead Justin Thomas?

5-31, After Round 3 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead John Pak?

5-31, After Round 3 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?

5-31, After Round 3 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead Justin Thomas?

6-1, After Round 4 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead John Pak?

6-1, After Round 4 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead Justin Thomas?

6-1, After Round 4 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead Justin Thomas?

6-12, After Round 1 of the US Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Justin Thomas?

6-12, After Round 1 of the US Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?

6-12, After Round 1 of the US Open Championship, will Rory McIlroy lead Justin Thomas?

7-17, After Round 1 of the British Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?

7-18, After Round 2 of the British Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?

7-19, After Round 3 of the British Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?

7-20, After Round 4 of the British Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?

5-30, After Round 2 of the Memorial, will Ben Griffin lead Collin Morikawa?

5-30, After Round 2 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead Collin Morikawa?

6-12, After Round 1 of the US Open Championship, will Collin Morikawa lead Bryson DeChambeau?

6-13, After Round 2 of the US Open Championship, will Collin Morikawa lead Bryson DeChambeau?

6-13, After Round 2 of the US Open Championship, will Rory McIlroy lead Bryson DeChambeau?

6-13, After Round 2 of the US Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Bryson DeChambeau?

6-13, After Round 2 of the US Open Championship, will J.J. Spaun lead Thriston Lawrence?

6-13, After Round 2 of the US Open Championship, will J.J. Spaun lead Si Woo Kim?

6-13, After Round 2 of the US Open Championship, will J.J. Spaun lead Brooks Koepka?

6-13, After Round 2 of the US Open Championship, will J.J. Spaun lead Sungjae Im?

6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Adam Scott lead Ben Griffin?

6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Viktor Hovland lead Ben Griffin?

6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will J.J. Spaun lead Ben Griffin?

6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Adam Scott lead Viktor Hovland?

6-15, After Round 4 of the US Open Championship, will Viktor Hovland lead Sam Burns?

6-15, After Round 4 of the US Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Brooks Koepka?

6-15, After Round 4 of the US Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?

6/19 - After Round 1 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?

6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?

6/19 - After Round 1 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Justin Thomas?

6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Justin Thomas?

6/22 - After Round 4 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Justin Thomas?

6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead J. J. Spaun?

6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead J. J. Spaun?

6/19 - After Round 1 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead J. J. Spaun?

6/22 - After Round 4 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead J. J. Spaun?

6/19 - After Round 1 of the Travelers, will Rory McIlroy lead Jason Day?

6/19 - After Round 1 of the Travelers, will Ricky Fowler lead Si Woo Kim?

6/19 - After Round 1 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Si Woo Kim?

6/19 - After Round 1 of the Travelers, will Xander Schauffele lead Si Woo Kim?

6/19 - After Round 1 of the Travelers, will Xander Schauffele lead J.J. Spaun?

6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Austin Eckroat?

6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Austin Eckroat lead Rory McIlroy?

6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Wyndham Clark?

6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Keegan Bradley lead Rory McIlroy?

6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Keegan Bradley?

6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Cameron Young?

6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Jason Day lead Viktor Hovland?

6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Nick Taylor lead Viktor Hovland?

6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Justin Thomas lead Collin Morikawa?

6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Adam Scott lead Si Woo Kim?

6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Justin Thomas lead Collin Morikawa?

6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Tommy Fleetwood lead Scottie Scheffler?

6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Tommy Fleetwood lead Jason Day?

6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Jason Day lead Scottie Scheffler?

6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Tommy Fleetwood lead Scottie Scheffler??

6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Tommy Fleetwood lead Austin Eckroat?

6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Tommy Fleetwood lead Nick Taylor??

6/22 - After Round 4 of the Travelers, will Brian Harman lead Wyndham Clark?

6/22 - After Round 4 of the Travelers, will Harris English lead Wyndham Clark?

7-17, After Round 1 of the British Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jon Rahm?

6-26, After Round 1 of the Rocket Classic, will Ben Griffin lead Keegan Bradley?

6-27, After Round 2 of the Rocket Classic, will Ben Griffin lead Keegan Bradley?

6-28, After Round 3 of the Rocket Classic, will Ben Griffin lead Keegan Bradley?

6-29, After Round 4 of the Rocket Classic, will Ben Griffin lead Keegan Bradley?

6-27, After Round 2 of the Rocket Classic, will Collin Morikawa lead Patrick Cantlay?

6-28, After Round 3 of the Rocket Classic, will Collin Morikawa lead Patrick Cantlay?

6-29, After Round 4 of the Rocket Classic, will Collin Morikawa lead Patrick Cantlay?

6-28, After Round 3 of the Rocket Classic, will Patrick Cantlay lead Victor Perez?

6-29, After Round 4 of the Rocket Classic, will Patrick Cantlay lead Victor Perez?

6-27, After Round 2 of the Rocket Classic, will Keegan Bradley lead Wyndham Clark?

6-28, After Round 3 of the Rocket Classic, will Chris Kirk lead Phillip Knowles?

7-17, After Round 1 of the British Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jon Rahm?

7-17, After Round 1 of the British Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Shane Lowry?

7-17, After Round 1 of the British Open Championship, will Matt Fitzpatrick lead Jon Rahm?

7-20, After Round 4 of the British Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jon Rahm?

7-20, After Round 4 of the British Open Championship, will Xander Schauffele lead Tommy Fleetwood?

7-20, After Round 4 of the British Open Championship, will Ludvig Aberg lead Collin Morikawa?

7-19, After Round 3 of the British Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Matt Fitzpatrick?

7-19, After Round 3 of the British Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Brian Harman?

7-19, After Round 3 of the British Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Haotong Li?

7-19, After Round 3 of the British Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Tyrrell Hatton?

7-19, After Round 3 of the British Open Championship, will Haotong Li lead Tyrrell Hatton?

7-19, After Round 3 of the British Open Championship, will Haotong Li lead Brian Harman?

7/31 - After Round 1 of the Wyndham Championship, will Matt Fitzpatrick lead Keegan Bradley?

7/31 - After Round 1 of the Wyndham Championship, will Jordan Spieth lead Ben Griffin?

7/31 - After Round 1 of the Wyndham Championship, will Robert McIntyre lead Ben Griffin?

7/31 - After Round 1 of the Wyndham Championship, will Robert McIntyre lead Hideki Matsuyama?

7/31 - After Round 1 of the Wyndham Championship, will Si Woo Kim lead Hideki Matsuyama?

7/31 - After Round 1 of the Wyndham Championship, will Robert McIntyre lead Si Woo Kim?

8/01 - After Round 2 of the Wyndham Championship, will Alex Noren lead Harry Hall?

8/01 - After Round 2 of the Wyndham Championship, will Cameron Young lead Aaron Rai?

8/02 - After Round 3 of the Wyndham Championship, will Cameron Young lead Aaron Rai?

8/02 - After Round 3 of the Wyndham Championship, will Nico Echavarria lead Aaron Rai?

8/02 - After Round 3 of the Wyndham Championship, will Nico Echavarria lead Jordan Spieth?

7/28 - After Round 1 of the Arnold Palmer Invitational Junior, will Charlie Woods lead Darren Zhou?

7/28 - After Round 1 of the Arnold Palmer Invitational Junior, will Charlie Woods lead Lucas Gimenez?

7/28 - After Round 1 of the Arnold Palmer Invitational Junior, will Charlie Woods lead Ben Lathrop?

6-28, After Round 3 of the Rocket Classic, will Keegan Bradley lead Wyndham Clark?

6-29, After Round 4 of the Rocket Classic, will Keegan Bradley lead Wyndham Clark?

8/03 - After Round 4 of the Wyndham Championship, will Cameron Young lead the field?

8/03 - After Round 4 of the Wyndham Championship, will Nico Echavaria lead Cameron Young?

8/03 - After Round 4 of the Wyndham Championship, will Nico Echavaria lead Aaron Rai?

8/03 - After Round 4 of the Wyndham Championship, will Nico Echavaria lead Mac Meissner?

8/03 - After Round 4 of the Wyndham Championship, will Jackson Koivun lead Mac Meissner?

8/03 - After Round 4 of the Wyndham Championship, will Jackson Koivun lead Matt Fitzpatrick?

8/07 - After Round 1 of the Fedex St. Jude Championship, will Jackson Koivun lead Matt Fitzpatrick?

8/07 - After Round 1 of the Fedex St. Jude Championship, will Ludvig Aberg lead Matt Fitzpatrick?

8/07 - After Round 1 of the Fedex St. Jude Championship, will Ludvig Aberg lead Keegan Bradley?

8/07 - After Round 1 of the Fedex St. Jude Championship, will Corey Connors lead Keegan Bradley?

8/07 - After Round 1 of the Fedex St. Jude Championship, will Harris English lead Keegan Bradley?

8/07 - After Round 1 of the Fedex St. Jude Championship, will Corey Connors lead Harris English?

8/07 - After Round 1 of the Fedex St. Jude Championship, will Tommy Fleetwood lead Harris English?

8/02 - After Round 3 of the Wyndham Championship, will Chandler Phillips lead Aaron Rai?

5/15 - After Round 1, will Rory McIlroy lead Bryson DeChambeau?

5/16 - After Round 2, will Rory McIlroy lead Bryson DeChambeau?

5/17- After Round 3, will Rory McIlroy lead Bryson DeChambeau?

5/18- After Round 4, will Rory McIlroy lead Bryson DeChambeau?

5/16 - After Round 2, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jhonathan Vegas?

5-23, After Round 2 of the Charles Schwab Challenge, will Scottie Scheffler lead John Pak?

5-24, After Round 3 of the Charles Schwab Challenge, will Scottie Scheffler lead John Pak?

5-30, After Round 2 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead Ben Griffin?

6-12, After Round 1 of the US Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Bryson DeChambeau?

6-12, After Round 1 of the US Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jon Rahm?

6-12, After Round 1 of the US Open Championship, will Rory McIlroy lead Bryson DeChambeau?

6-12, After Round 1 of the US Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Collin Morikawa?

6-13, After Round 2 of the US Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Collin Morikawa?

6-13, After Round 2 of the US Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jon Rahm?

6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will J.J. Spaun lead Sam Burns?

6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Viktor Hovland lead Sam Burns?

6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Adam Scott lead Sam Burns?

6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Victor Perez lead Sam Burns?

6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Victor Perez lead J. J. Spaun?

6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Victor Perez lead Viktor Hovland?

6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Brooks Koepka lead Sam Burns?

6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Brooks Koepka lead J.J. Spaun?

6-15, After Round 4 of the US Open Championship, will Adam Scott lead Sam Burns?

6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Adam Scott lead J.J. Spaun?

6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will J.J. Spaun lead Sam Burns?

6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Viktor Hovland lead Sam Burns?

6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Viktor Hovland lead J.J. Spaun?

6-15, After Round 4 of the US Open Championship, will J. J. Spaun lead Sam Burns?

6-15, After Round 4 of the US Open Championship, will Adam Scott lead J.J. Spaun?

6-15, After Round 4 of the US Open Championship, will Adam Scott lead Viktor Hovland?

6-15, After Round 4 of the US Open Championship, will Jordan Spieth lead Brooks Koepka?

6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?

6/22 - After Round 4 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?

6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Justin Thomas?

6/19 - After Round 1 of the Travelers, will Shane Lowry lead Collin Morikawa?

6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Shane Lowry lead Collin Morikawa?

6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Shane Lowry lead Collin Morikawa?

6/22 - After Round 4 of the Travelers, will Shane Lowry lead Collin Morikawa?

6/19 - After Round 1 of the Travelers, will Tony Finau lead Jason Day?

6/19 - After Round 1 of the Travelers, will Tony Finau lead Rory McIlroy?

6/19 - After Round 1 of the Travelers, will Ricky Fowler lead Scottie Scheffler?

6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Wyndham Clark lead Rory McIlroy?

6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Cameron Young lead Rory McIlroy?

6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Jason Day lead Jason Day?

6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Shane Lowry lead Scottie Scheffler?

6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Denny McCarthy lead Scottie Scheffler?

6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Austin Eckroat lead Scottie Scheffler??

6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Nick Taylor lead Scottie Scheffler??

6/22 - After Round 4 of the Travelers, will Russell Henley lead Keegan Bradley?

6/22 - After Round 4 of the Travelers, will Brian Harman lead Harrish English?

6/22 - After Round 4 of the Travelers, will Lucas Glover lead Rory McIlroy?

6/22 - After Round 4 of the Travelers, will Lucas Glover lead Scottie Scheffler?

7-17, After Round 1 of the British Open Championship, will Jon Rahm lead Rory McIlroy?

6-26, After Round 1 of the Rocket Classic, will Collin Morikawa lead Patrick Cantlay?

6-26, After Round 1 of the Rocket Classic, will Patrick Cantlay lead Victor Perez?

6-27, After Round 2 of the Rocket Classic, will Patrick Cantlay lead Victor Perez?

6-26, After Round 1 of the Rocket Classic, will Keegan Bradley lead Wyndham Clark?

6-28, After Round 3 of the Rocket Classic, will Chris Kirk lead Andrew Putnam?

6-28, After Round 3 of the Rocket Classic, will Phillip Knowles lead Andrew Putnam?

7-17, After Round 1 of the British Open Championship, will Jon Rahm lead Rory McIlroy?

7-17, After Round 1 of the British Open Championship, will Shane Lowry lead Rory McIlroy?

7-17, After Round 1 of the British Open Championship, will Shane Lowry lead Jon Rahm?

7-17, After Round 1 of the British Open Championship, will Shane Lowry lead Matt Fitzpatrick?

7-20, After Round 4 of the British Open Championship, will Jon Rahm lead Rory McIlroy?

7-20, After Round 4 of the British Open Championship, will Bryson DeChambeau lead Rory McIlroy?

7-20, After Round 4 of the British Open Championship, will Xander Schauffele lead Rory McIlroy?

7-20, After Round 4 of the British Open Championship, will Victor Hovland lead Tommy Fleetwood?

7-20, After Round 4 of the British Open Championship, will Victor Hovland lead Tyrrell Hatton?

7-20, After Round 4 of the British Open Championship, will Ludvig Aberg lead Tyrrell Hatton?

7/31 - After Round 1 of the Wyndham Championship, will Matt Fitzpatrick lead Aaron Rai?

7/31 - After Round 1 of the Wyndham Championship, will Keegan Bradley lead Aaron Rai?

7/31 - After Round 1 of the Wyndham Championship, will Matt Fitzpatrick lead Ben Griffin?

8/01 - After Round 2 of the Wyndham Championship, will Lucas Glover lead Si Woo Kim?

8/01 - After Round 2 of the Wyndham Championship, will Lucas Glover lead Harry Hall?

8/01 - After Round 2 of the Wyndham Championship, will Jake Knapp lead Harry Hall?

8/01 - After Round 2 of the Wyndham Championship, will Joel Dahmen lead Harry Hall?

Flat tire

Hitch a lift

Ride through a thunderstorm

fall off the bike

Make use of the WarmShowers network

Exceed a speed of 35mph

Have sex while on tour

Cycle >65 miles in one day

Learn interesting lore from a local in at least one place you pass through

Get sunburnt

Be chased by a dog

Receive a gift from someone you meet along the way [not including social gestures, see comments]

Someone you meet irl invites you to stay at their home (including camping on their property)

Encounter snow (via active precipitation OR unmelted on side of road)

rained on

Broken spoke

Encounter road closure

See a snake

someone honks at you (from a car, while on your bicycle)

Someone shouts encouragement from a vehicle

See a cat with 3+ kittens

Notice a custom license plate that you find funny

Eat more than 5,000 kcals in a single day

Try a new food and love it!

make it all the way to the Atlantic with at least 90% of the distance covered by bike/foot

Someone shouts verbal abuse from a vehicle

experience temperatures above 100°F (38°C)

Meet an online friend IRL

End the trip at a lower weight than you started (<65kg)

Try a new food and hate it!

Make it to the end without any further broken spokes

Poop somewhere that isn’t a toilet or portapotty

Three or more flat tires

Cycle >110 miles in one day

Cry

Meet a manifold user IRL (who I haven't met before)

Have animals access your food while camping

get invited to someone's church

Broken chain

Something that is not the whole bike gets stolen (wheel, lights, money, phone, etc)

3 people you meet join Manifold to participate in this market

End the trip at a higher weight than you started (>65kg)

Observe, divert route or delay because of a tornado

Divert or delay route due to wildfire and/or poor air quality due to smoke

See a bear

Someone you meet joins Manifold to bet on this market and is still active on the site (betting 3+ days/week) when all options resolve

10 or more flat tires (current running total: 5)

Get rash from poison oak or poison ivy

Get ill enough that you skip a day.

Get pulled over / stopped by police [while on bicycle]

Have bike stolen

Be hit by an automobile

Someone asks if you know Prince Harry

RFK Jr. gets cabinet position or position in any public health department

J6er pardoned

Sports team invited to the white house

A member of Congress is censured or expelled

Mass Deportations

The democrats take control of the house of representatives

Any vaccines banned for any group of people

A major insider trading scandal linked to the US executive branch

Prohibiting or restricting transgender care for adults

Trump is impeached

Joe Exotic is released from prison

350 million people or more die, according to expert estimates

US punitive expedition in Mexico

Drone strike in Mexico by US

AGI achieved

Starlink satellites damaged by US adversary

Nuclear weapon detonation

100k humanoid robots manufactured

Significant Rogue AI Incident

China invades Taiwan

It ends with JD Vance becoming president

Coup attempt in the United States

Any part of Greenland becomes de facto US territory (excludes military bases)

A human walks on the Moon

Room temperature superconductor discovered

Flag desecration prohibition passed

Elon Musk is arrested for treason

US military intervention on Canadian territory

Supreme Court packing

The Senate eliminates the filibuster

Donald Trump reelected President

Tulsi Gabbard is arrested for treason

Eagles three-peat

22nd amendment repealed or interpreted to only apply to consecutive terms

Largest solar flare since Carrington Event

NO

Requires a network connection

Will have a battery

Sells more than 100 thousand units within 12 months of its release

Has a microphone

Has notification LEDs

Can play music from Spotify

Has a camera

Requires a ChatGPT Plus or higher subscription

Uses a normal OpenAI model (i.e. available through ChatGPT / API to non-device-owners)

US retail price <= $500 on launch

Designed to be worn on head (e.g. glasses, hat)

Will have a vibration motor for notifications

Will come in >= 3 colors on launch

Sells more than a million units within 12 months of its release

Sells more than 5 million units within 12 months of its release

US retail price <= $300 on launch

On sale to the public (no pre-order, no invite-only) before 1st June 2026

Is wearable

Has any screen

YES

Ketamine (recreationally)

celebrating christmas?

Takes Estrogen

Visits the Bay in the first half of February

Ketamine (medically)

Invites @transkatgirl to live with her in her room

NO