The Invite News

[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump establishes a Bitcoin reserve in his first 100 days (Nate: 15%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 40% on China before the 2028 elections (Nate: 30%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 25% on Mexico or Canada before the 2028 elections (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] The SALT deduction is raised or uncapped before the 2026 midterms (Nate: 80%)

[Economy] Trump signs legislation or passes an executive order reducing or eliminating taxes on tips by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 65%)

[Economy] There is at least one federal government shutdown before the 2028 elections (Nate: 75%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump makes any new statement that COVID probably or definitely originated in a Chinese lab by 1/20/29 (Nate: 75%)

[Constitutionality] By 1/20/29, the NYT publishes the phrase “constitutional crisis” in reference to actions undertaken by Trump, the White House, or Republicans in the headline or lede paragraph of at least three news articles (Nate: 45%)

[Media] Trump or the federal government sue the New York Times or the Washington Post, or any active employees thereof, at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 55%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on his still being president, the New York Times publishes at least three articles between the 2026 midterms and 2028 election pointing toward Trump’s physical or cognitive decline (Nate: 80%)

[Constitutionality] The Supreme Court substantially overrules Trump’s interpretation of birthright citizenship (Nate: 90%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms (Nate: 85%)

[Culture Wars] The federal government sues any AAU university for failing to comply with Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard by 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

[Immigration] Southwestern border apprehensions are at least 50% lower in 2025-2027 than on average from 2021-2023 (Nate: 75%)

[Media] MSNBC ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2018 (Nate: 80%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump visits China (Nate: 90%)

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons any family member, not including himself, before 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

[Media] Fox News ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2022 (Nate: 55%)

[Trump Cabinet] Two or more Cabinet members from any point in Trump’s second term publicly criticize Trump by the 2028 election (Nate: 70%)

[Economy] Total federal government tax receipts, including tariffs, are lower as a share of GDP in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons himself before 1/20/29 (Nate: 85%)

[Economy] The US Gini coefficient is higher in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 85%)

[Culture Wars] Homicide rates are lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

[Immigration] At least 1 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 90%)

[Baseline Politics] Mike Johnson remains Speaker of the House through 11/3/2026 (Nate: 60%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump is impeached (again) — does not require conviction (Nate: 45%)

[Electorate Demographics] The gender gap, measured as the Republican vote share among men less the share among women, will be wider in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 65%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump or his successors sign any law limiting the scope of Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act by 11/7/2028, reducing liability protections for social media companies (Nate: 60%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump completes his term (Nate: 75%)

[Baseline Politics] At least one new Supreme Court vacancy in the 119th or 120th Congress (Nate: 85%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 55%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the presidency in 2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Constitutionality] Trump or his successors invoke the Insurrection Act at any point before 1/20/29, even if later blocked by courts (Nate: 40%)

[Economy] The NBER declares a recession at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 45%)

[Constitutionality] The New York Times or Washington Post report that the Trump administration has illegally surveilled domestic political opponents by the 2028 election (a.k.a. Watergate 2.0) (Nate: 25%)

[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in Santa Clara County, California in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] Year-over-year inflation is >=5.0% at any point based on data published before the 2028 election (Nate: 50%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump asserts his intention on at least two occasions to run for a third term in 2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Media] Trump bars all New York Times or Washington Post reporters from White House press briefings at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 60%)

[Culture Wars] A ban on transgender student-athletes in women’s sports is passed through Congress and signed by Trump or enacted through executive action by 1/20/29 (Nate: 70%)

[Culture Wars] Childhood measles vaccination rates (currently ~93%) drop below 90% in any calendar year based on best available data as of 1/20/2029 (Nate: 35%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses the eventual winner of the 2028 GOP presidential nomination by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 60%)

[Culture Wars] Trump or any successors sign legislation with the explicit aim of increasing US fertility rates by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Media] Trump attends the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner at least once (Nate: 60%)

[Media] The New York Times or Washington Post hires at least one full-time explicitly pro-Trump political columnist by the 2028 election (Nate: 40%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Jewish vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 50%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump visits Russia (Nate: 60%)

[Media] The Washington Post endorses the Democratic presidential candidate in 2028 (Nate: 60%)

[Silicon Valley] The FTC or another federal agency initiate a new prosecution against a Big 5 tech company by 1/20/29 (Nate: 60%)

[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive action, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on licensed online American sportsbooks by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 50%)

[Constitutionality] The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index for the US (currently 7.8) falls under 7.0 at any point before 1/20/29 (Nate: 15%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win a trifecta (House + Senate + POTUS) in 2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Trump and 2028] JD Vance is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 50%)

[Economy] Trump invokes the Taft-Hartley Act at least once before the 2028 elections (Nate: 25%)

[Constitutionality] Republicans hold Congressional hearings on efforts to cover up Biden’s age or physical or cognitive condition (Nate: 45%)

[Economy] The S&P 500 closes at least 40% higher on 9/1/2028 than on 1/17/2025 (5,996.66 points) (Nate: 50%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 20% on Denmark before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Black vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)

[Constitutionality] The White House refuses to comply with any Supreme Court order (Nate: 10%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill or executive order restricting early or mail-in voting or voter registration practices for federal elections (Nate: 25%)

[Culture Wars] The Oscars rescind their DEI requirements by 2028 (Nate: 45%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump or the White House make a public statement warning of the dangers of unaligned AI by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Economy] Federal spending as a share of GDP is lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 60%)

[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk donates at least $100M to the Republican general election nominee in 2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Economy] Real GDP growth through Q3 2028 exceeds the average of GDP growth (3.3%) during Biden’s first 15 quarters (Nate: 35%)

[Culture Wars] At least one Oscar, Grammy, or Emmy winner explicitly praises Trump during their acceptance speech before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the Senate in 2026 (Nate: 15%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses JD Vance by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Trump Cabinet] At least three Attorneys General, excluding acting AGs, occupy the position before 1/20/2029 (Nate: 25%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the LGBTQ vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)

[Immigration] At least 3 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 40%)

[Culture Wars] At least half the members of any Super Bowl champion refuse to visit the White House while Trump is in office or refuses to invite them (Nate: 10%)

[Silicon Valley] At least 30% of donations from Big 5 tech employees (Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Microsoft) go toward Republicans in the 2028 campaign (Nate: 25%)

[Economy] The top federal tax bracket is lower in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 25%)

[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive order, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on online pornography by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 20%)

[Economy] Trump's first nominee for Federal Reserve Chair in 2026 is confirmed with at least two-thirds of voting Senators (Nate: 55%)

[Foreign Policy] Congress declares war or authorizes the use of military force by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 25%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2028 general election (Nate: 60%)

[Trump and 2028] The 2028 election is not regarded as “free or fair” (or similar terminology) by one or more major international organizations (Nate: 10%)

[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in New Jersey in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 25%)

[Culture Wars] Race relations are rated as “somewhat bad” or “very bad” by more people than in 2021 (57%) in the average of any Gallup surveys taken during Trump’s second term (Nate: 20%)

[Foreign Policy] Conditional on the war not ending, the US cuts foreign aid to Ukraine by at least 25% in its next budget (Nate: 10%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump recognizes Taiwan by 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Foreign Policy] There is a territorial dispute, resulting in maneuvering of military assets, between the US and any country in the Americas (including Greenland) before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Silicon Valley] Any “Twitter-type” platform has more active daily users than Twitter/X by 6/30/28 (Nate: 30%)

[Constitutionality] The Trump administration prosecutes Joe Biden (Nate: 50%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Hispanic vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024, as measured based on an average of the AP and Edison exit polls (Nate: 35%)

[Silicon Valley] Congress passes a shift to year-round Standard Time (Nate: 15%)

[Economy] Trump attempts to fire Jerome Powell before his term expires in May 2026 (Nate: 5%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Muslim vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 40%)

[Immigration] More H1-B visas are issued on average in FY 2025-2028 versus 2021-2024 (Nate: 35%)

[Trump and 2028] A member of the Trump family (not including Trump himself) is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump or his successors successfully withdraw the US from NATO by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 10%)

[Foreign Policy] The United States purchases or retakes any part of Greenland before 1/20/29 (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] The transition to the new president in 2028/2029 is marked by violence, resulting in at least five deaths (Nate: 15%)

[Foreign Policy] An American flag is planted on Mars (including by unmanned drones/robots) by 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump physically refuses to leave the White House following the end of his term or removal from office (Nate: 5%)

[Immigration] The border wall/fence with Mexico is completed before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill to repeal substantial portions of Obamacare by 11/3/2026 (Nate: 30%)

[Trump and 2028] The 25th Amendment is invoked against Trump (Nate: 10%)

[Baseline Politics] A third party is a significant factor (>=15% or more of the popular vote at any point after Labor Day) in the 2028 race (Nate: 20%)

[Media] Trump appears on Saturday Night Live at least once before the 2028 election (Nate: 30%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=50% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 15%)

[Trump Cabinet] At least two of Pete Hegseth, Tulsi Gabbard, and RFK Jr. do not occupy their respective cabinet positions (or are not confirmed) by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 65%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats take control of the House before the 2026 midterms through special elections or party switches (Nate: 10%)

[Foreign Policy] The United States retakes any part of the Panama Canal before 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)

[Silicon Valley] DOGE recommendations lead to cuts of at least $500 billion in government spending in any fiscal year between now and the 2028 election (Nate: 10%)

[Culture Wars] Same-sex marriage is not legal in any state as of 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump appears on the general election ballot of enough states to win the Electoral College in 2028 (Nate: 2%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a federal abortion ban into law by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Trump Cabinet] Either Tulsi Gabbard or RFK Jr. are not confirmed to their current cabinet nominations (Nate: 55%)

Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min

3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour

Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water

Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour

Use tap water instead of fancy RO water

put butter into it

Toast the bread

Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need

Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)

Half yeast

Bake it with your best friend.

Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread

Bake for 5 more minutes

Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)

Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake

Increase water by 50 g

it needs more salt

Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.

Diastatic malt (~1% baker's percentage) = happier yeast

Serve the bread hot

Do a second rise

Use sourdough instead of yeast

Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread

Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter

don't eat anything for at least 2400 hours before eating the bread

Cut into the dough right before baking looks destructive to improve the appearance

Sell your bread at an auction and donate the money to those in immigration detention prisons.

Add garlic

Do it with a good spirit in your heart, or ask someone with a good spirit to do it for you. But don’t watch while they do it.

Sprinkle sesame seeds evenly over the top

Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake

Short advice: Start baking at 260°C for strong rise, then reduce to 230°C and uncover halfway to achieve even browning and a crisp crust. 🍞

Try baking a little more "bien cuit". If the image is indicative, your loaves may be quite "blonde".

put ketchup and cheese on it

Use Iodized salt

Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread

Invest in a "Bakers Steel" for better heat retention and oven spring. It would mean graduating from a dutch oven though.

Add slurs to it

Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option

Make banana bread

Ask ChatGPT (GPT-5, with thinking enabled) for suggestions on improving the bread, with this market description, then do all of them.

Get recipe from gemini with experiments done, taste preference, then confirm it with chatgpt for final suggestion.

Make the bread taste good

Don't automatically "Heat water to 30±1 °C". Instead, aim for a desired dough temperature (DDT) of 25-26°C. 30°C water is too hot for summer, and potentially too cool for winter.

If your city uses artesian water, replace plastic bottled water with tap water. It will add natural, healthy alkalinity to your bread.

Substitute 75 g of your flour with spelt flour

Give Gemini your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake

Add 6.25±1.25 g lemon juice when mixing in water to yeast and salt jug

Watch the video

Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video

Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h

Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face

Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0

Throw the bread at a telescope

Cut bread into loaves before serving

Cut bread into ≤0.4inch slices, toast before serving

Invite your taste-testers to make the bread with you

Bake for 15 more minutes

Tarriff the bread-making process with a 10% reduction of all ingredients where actual physical money is required to purchase them, until it “shrinkflates,” but try to keep the same volume. Do not reduce any free ingredients.

Add 2 tbsp vanilla cake mix

Taste the bread

throw your recipe into a black box Bayesian hyperparameter optimization framework and iterate as necessary (see the Google Vizier Cookie Recipe paper for example

Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.

Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.

Just freeze the ready bread, then slowly bake it until it’s hot inside. It will give you a crustier crumb, contain less moisture, and taste better.

Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.

Add melatonin to the bread and eat before you sleep (do safely)

Standardize a separate list of process features to keep track of independently of all other tests and use the cross entropy method to tune them to maximize your bread preference

Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price

While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana

Use a food-grade, human-approved vitamin D supplement in the correct dosage for testers with vitamin D deficiency

Use a convection oven/setting

Add 1/2 scoop whey protein powder

Brush on an egg wash

Replace part of the flour in the dough with freshly crushed hemp seeds. It will make the bread a little bit sweeter, especially appealing for Canadians.

Only use tap water from specifically New York City

Make the bread great again

Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)

Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread

Make the bread edible then throw it in

Drink vodka while eating the bread

Do FOLDED

Quit Manifold into the bread.

Kill the bread into Manifold.

Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.

Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.

Replace AP with bread flour and cruelly mix the dough in the mixer until elastic and not sticky

replace 10% of flour with farina bona

Add a tablespoon of sugar

Bake one more minute

Replace 10% of flour with milled wheat bran

Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)

Instead of RO water, use lightly rusty water to improve the nutritional value of the bread with soluble iron.

Ask yourself if bread is healthier than fruits? No need to improve my bread

Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.

Resolve at least one thing here yes or no while baking bread

A system view is more appropriate. This is a dynamic, multi-variate, biological and chemical system. For e.g. conditioning salt % AND yeast % AND water temperature based on ingredient and ambient temps.

Use soda instead of water (clear, orange, yellow, etc. soda is ok. Don’t use a purple/brown soda as that would make it not look good)

Wear a suit while baking the cake.

Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread

Replace salt with sugar

Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon

Pray to your preferred agricultural/food deity before baking and before eating

Replace 600+/-5g water with 600+/-50g water (eyeball rather than carefully measure)

Strawberry jelly filling

Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture

Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.

Want to improve the value of your bread? Simply bake a piece of gold into it

Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.

Make all of the ingredients from scratch.

Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.

Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.

Only buy ingredients from 7/11.

Improve the bread

Quadruple salt

Bake your social security number into it.

Bake one fewer minute

Add caffeine to the bread

Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.

Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.

Test/filter the water for heavy metals

Eat the bread in front of the White House.

Implement all options that resolved NO

Make the bread inedible then throw it out.

Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump

Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump

Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.

make the bread bounce

Implementing every element listed below.

Just make donuts instead

Bake it in an easy bake kids oven

Use lemonade instead of water.

Use a plastic baking sheet.

Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold

Double oven temperature

Bake the bread very thin and add food coloring to make it have the US flag. Don’t allow it to touch the ground, illuminate at night, fold 13 times properly, and pledge allegiance before eating.

Don’t use usual water (room temperature) for the dough - that water’s only for toilets. Use electrolyte drinks instead with ice cubes; they make the dough taste better and add extra nutrition.

Light it on fire with birthday candles.

Bake it with a microwave

Halve oven temperature

Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold

Step on it

Give the bread a name in a ritual ceremony and baptise it, with pre-blessed holy water if a priest isn't available

Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it

Bake America Great Again

Sacrifice a lamb

Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice

Bake in a cat and a dog

Explode it:

5 parts cyanide/ 1 part water/ 1 part sand

say 6 7 67 times before making the bread

Take a fat dump in the dough

Sit in dough 24 hrs

Replace flour with flowers

Let dough sit 24 hrs

Mix half sodium/potassium chloride

Add 2g? of baking soda

Bake in rectangular tin

Add 50g vital wheat gluten

double yeast

halve salt

Double salt

Add 2tsp olive oil

Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait

Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through

Do not mix salt and yeast in water together

Autolyse 20 minutes

Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge

Think positive thoughts before tasting

Put fork in microwave

Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread

Add 2tbsp vanilla extract

Play classical music while baking

Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread

Add a pinch of sugar

Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven

Eat the bread with friends

Bake vegimite into it.

Bake vodka into it

Bake it in the country you were born in.

Let dough sit 48 hrs

Resolve this option YES while eating the bread

Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket

Eat the bread over the course of a week.

Bake for 5 fewer minutes

Use 50% whole grain flour

Bake the bread with love

Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose

Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)

More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.

Resolve this option NO while eating the bread

Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)

Add 50g sugar

Add 50g honey

Swap 200ml water for milk

Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.

Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.

Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content

Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump

Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.

Add banana

Add poppy seeds

“Manifold pro” or similar status w perks

Profile hats

Profile pic borders

Profile Hovercard borders

Leverage (loan) rate increases

Bonus streak forgiveness / freezes

Coolfold's Jester hat

Top hat

Crystal ball icon on pfp

Wizard hat

Cat ears

Stonks arrow (over pfp)

Monocle

Halo

Devil horns

Bull/Bear horns/ears

Cosmetic badges

Some kind of Whale design on pfp, or on hovercard, gated behind 1m all-time volume

Consumable market decorations

Additional site themes

A unique hat that can only be owned by one person but can be stolen

Fire-themed hovercard (requires Streak >100days to buy)

Profile page layout customization

Spoiler mode (hide current probabilities)

trader bonus multiplier

MtG mana color symbols

Create a clan / community / group

Consumable item that lets you highlight a comment

Custom league cohort packs for inviting friends to compete

Extra predictle sets

Access to detailed Predictle stats (eg of past games, or of other players' performance)

Boost discounts (limited purchase, e.g. 2/ mo)

Discord perks

RFK Jr. gets cabinet position or position in any public health department

Flag desecration prohibition passed

Any vaccines banned for any group of people

J6er pardoned

Sports team invited to the white house

A member of Congress is censured or expelled

Mass Deportations

The democrats take control of the house of representatives

A major insider trading scandal linked to the US executive branch

Trump is impeached

Prohibiting or restricting transgender care for adults

Coup attempt in the United States

Joe Exotic is released from prison

Drone strike in Mexico by US

350 million people or more die, according to expert estimates

China invades Taiwan

US punitive expedition in Mexico

Starlink satellites damaged by US adversary

Significant Rogue AI Incident

AGI achieved

100k humanoid robots manufactured

It ends with JD Vance becoming president

A human walks on the Moon

The Senate eliminates the filibuster

Largest solar flare since Carrington Event

Room temperature superconductor discovered

Nuclear weapon detonation

Elon Musk is arrested for treason

Supreme Court packing

Any part of Greenland becomes de facto US territory (excludes military bases)

US military intervention on Canadian territory

Donald Trump reelected President

22nd amendment repealed or interpreted to only apply to consecutive terms

Eagles three-peat

Tulsi Gabbard is arrested for treason

1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Si Woo Kim?

1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Russell Henley lead Keegan Bradley?

1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Russell Henley lead Keegan Bradley?

02-15, After Round 4 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?

1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Russell Henly lead J.J. Spaun?

1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Keegan Bradley lead Colin Morikawa?

1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Maverick McNealy?

1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Corey Conners lead Kristoffer Reitan?

1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Nick Taylor lead Ben Griffin?

1-17, After Round 3 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Nick Taylor lead Ben Griffin?

1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Nick Taylor lead Ben Griffin?

1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Harry Hall lead Kevin Roy?

1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Ryan Riley lead Chris Gerard?

01-23, After Round 2 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Ryan Gerard lead Patrick Rodgers?

01-24, After Round 3 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Ryan Gerard lead Patrick Rodgers?

01-25, After Round 4 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Ryan Gerard lead Patrick Rodgers?

01-22, After Round 1 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Robert MacIntyre lead Jacob Bridgeman?

01-22, After Round 1 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Davis Riley lead Taylor Pendrith?

01-22, After Round 1 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Lee Hodges lead Harry Hall?

01-24, After Round 3 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Blades Brown lead Scottie Scheffler?

01-24, After Round 3 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Blades Brown lead Si Woo Kim?

01-29, After Round 1 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Jason Day lead Andrew Putnam?

01-29, After Round 1 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Tom Hoge lead Davis Riley?

02-01, After Round 4 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Stephan Jaeger lead Seamus Power?

02-01, After Round 4 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Joel Dahmen lead Max McGreevy?

02-07, After Round 3 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Si Woo Kim lead Pierceson Coody?

02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Si Woo Kim lead Pierceson Coody?

02-07, After Round 3 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Chris Gotterup?

02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Jake Knapp lead Pierceson Coody?

02-07, After Round 3 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Jake Knapp lead Pierceson Coody?

02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Nicolai Højgaard lead Maverick McNealy?

02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Maverick McNealy?

02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Michael Thorbjornsen lead Maverick McNealy?

02-12, After Round 1 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Chris Gotterup lead Ryan Gerard?

02-14, After Round 3 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Chris Gotterup lead Ryan Gerard?

02-15, After Round 4 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Chris Gotterup lead Ryan Gerard?

02-13, After Round 2 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Justin Rose lead Si Woo Kim?

02-14, After Round 3 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Justin Rose lead Si Woo Kim?

02-15, After Round 4 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Justin Rose lead Si Woo Kim?

02-12, After Round 1 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Pierceson Coody?

02-13, After Round 2 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Pierceson Coody?

02-14, After Round 3 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Pierceson Coody?

02-15, After Round 4 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Pierceson Coody?

02-12, After Round 1 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Jake Knapp?

02-13, After Round 2 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Jake Knapp?

02-13, After Round 2 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Sam Burns?

03-14, After Round 3 of The Players Championship, will Ludvig Åberg lead Xander Schauffele?

1-17, After Round 3 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Russell Henley lead Keegan Bradley?

01-25, After Round 4 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?

1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Nick Taylor?

1-17, After Round 3 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Nick Taylor?

1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Nick Taylor?

02-01, After Round 4 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?

91-25, After Round 4 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Si Woo Kim?

01-22, After Round 1 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Si Woo Kim?

1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?

1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?

1-17, After Round 3 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?

1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?

1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Russell Henley lead Keegan Bradley?

02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?

03-01, After Round 4 of the Cognizant Classic in Palm Beach Gardens, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?

04-12, After Round 4 of The Masters, will Rory McIlroy lead Justin Rose?

04-12, After Round 4 of The Masters, will Patrick Reed lead Justin Rose?

04-12, After Round 4 of The Masters, will Rory McIlroy lead Patrick Reed?

04-12, After Round 4 of The Masters, will Rory McIlroy lead Scottie Scheffler?

04-12, After Round 4 of The Masters, will Scottie Scheffler lead Justin Rose?

04-12, After Round 4 of The Masters, will Scottie Scheffler lead Patrick Reed?

01-29, After Round 1 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?

01-22, After Round 1 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Scottie Scheffler?

1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Nick Taylor?

1-17, After Round 3 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Si Woo Kim?

1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Si Woo Kim?

02-22, After Round 4 of the Genesis Invitational in Pacific Pallisades, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?

1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Robert McIntyre lead Ben Griffin?

1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Aaron Rai lead Chris Gotterup?

03-08, After Round 4 of the Arnold Palmer Invitational in Orlando, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Si Woo Kim?

1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Nick Taylor lead Kevin Roy?

1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Ben Griffin lead Kevin Roy?

1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Ben Griffin lead Chris Gotterup?

1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Alex Smalley lead John Parry?

1-17, After Round 3 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Nick Taylor lead Kevin Roy?

1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Nick Taylor lead Kevin Roy?

1-17, After Round 3 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Ben Griffin lead Kevin Roy?

1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Ben Griffin lead Kevin Roy?

1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Harry Hall lead Chris Gotterup?

1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Kevin Roy lead Chris Gotterup?

01-22, After Round 1 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Russell Henley lead Scottie Scheffler?

01-23, After Round 2 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Russell Henley lead Scottie Scheffler?

01-24, After Round 3 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Russell Henley lead Scottie Scheffler?

01-25, After Round 4 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Russell Henley lead Scottie Scheffler?

01-22, After Round 1 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Ryan Gerard lead Patrick Rodgers?

01-24, After Round 3 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Matt McCarty lead Si Woo Kim?

01-29, After Round 1 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Ryan Gerard lead Chris Gotterup?

01-29, After Round 1 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Matt McCarty lead Patrick Rodgers?

01-29, After Round 1 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Sam Stevens lead Si Woo Kim?

01-30, After Round 2 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Justin Lower lead Justin Rose?

01-31, After Round 3 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Justin Lower lead Justin Rose?

02-01, After Round 4 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Justin Lower lead Justin Rose?

01-30, After Round 2 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Max Greyersman lead Hideki Matsuyama?

01-31, After Round 3 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Max Greyersman lead Hideki Matsuyama?

02-01, After Round 4 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Max Greyersman lead Hideki Matsuyama?

01-30, After Round 2 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Stephan Jaeger lead Seamus Power?

01-31, After Round 3 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Stephan Jaeger lead Seamus Power?

01-31, After Round 3 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Seamus Power lead Justin Rose?

02-01, After Round 4 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Seamus Power lead Justin Rose?

01-31, After Round 3 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Danny Walker lead Eric Cole?

02-01, After Round 4 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Danny Walker lead Eric Cole?

02-05, After Round 1 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Scottie Scheffler lead Chris Gotterup?

02-06, After Round 2 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Scottie Scheffler lead Chris Gotterup?

02-07, After Round 3 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Scottie Scheffler lead Chris Gotterup?

02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Scottie Scheffler lead Chris Gotterup?

02-05, After Round 1 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Si Woo Kim lead Pierceson Coody?

02-06, After Round 2 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Si Woo Kim lead Pierceson Coody?

02-07, After Round 3 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Hideki Matsuyama?

02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Hideki Matsuyama?

02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Nicolai Højgaard lead Hideki Matsuyama?

02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Nicolai Højgaard lead Hideki Si Woo Kim?

02-14, After Round 3 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?

02-13, After Round 2 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?

02-12, After Round 1 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?

02-13, After Round 2 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Chris Gotterup lead Ryan Gerard?

02-12, After Round 1 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Justin Rose lead Si Woo Kim?

02-14, After Round 3 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Jake Knapp?

02-15, After Round 4 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Jake Knapp?

02-14, After Round 3 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Sam Burns?

02-15, After Round 4 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Sam Burns?

03-15, After Round 4 of The Players Championship, will Ludvig Åberg lead Xander Schauffele?

03-14, After Round 3 of The Players Championship, will Corey Conners lead Xander Schauffele?

03-14, After Round 3 of The Players Championship, will Justin Thomas lead Xander Schauffele?

NO

Will have a battery

Requires a network connection

Has a microphone

Can play music from Spotify

US retail price <= $500 on launch

Has a camera

US retail price <= $300 on launch

Uses a normal OpenAI model (i.e. available through ChatGPT / API to non-device-owners)

Will have a vibration motor for notifications

Sells more than 100 thousand units within 12 months of its release

Is wearable

Has notification LEDs

Designed to be worn on head (e.g. glasses, hat)

Has any screen

Will come in >= 3 colors on launch

Sells more than a million units within 12 months of its release

Requires a ChatGPT Plus or higher subscription

Sells more than 5 million units within 12 months of its release

On sale to the public (no pre-order, no invite-only) before 1st June 2026

Henry Oliver

Kim Bowes

Magnus Carlsen

C Thi Nguyen

Emily Wilson

Patrick Collison (again)

Rebecca Lowe

Dean Ball

Hollis Robbins

Francis Fukuyama

Tom Holland (the historian)

Jamie Dimon

Jan Swafford

Ted Chiang

Samuel Scheffler

Martha Nussbaum

Will Baude

Bishop Robert Barron

William Gibson

Sir Demis Hassabis

Vaclav Smil

Robert Sapolsky

Jonathan Sumption

Aella

Knausgaard (again)

Kathleen Tyson

John Ioannidis

David Runciman

William Hague

Ben Goldacre

Werner Herzog

Jensen Huang

Haruki Murakami

Cremieux

Michel Houellebecq

Hillary Clinton

Oprah Winfrey

Thomas Sowell

Bill Gates

Lana Del Rey

Novak Djokovic

Dua Lipa

Bari Weiss

80 - 89

100+

90 - 99

50 - 59

60 - 69

70 - 79

40 - 49

30 - 39

Ketamine (recreationally)

Takes Estrogen

celebrating christmas?

Visits the Bay in the first half of February

Ketamine (medically)

Invites @transkatgirl to live with her in her room

2 by end 2024

1 by end 2024

3 by end 2020s