The Long Game News

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.66%chance

834517250

OptionVotes

YES

59065

10415

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

42.67%chance

556467615

OptionVotes

YES

2818

2386

Which of these Language Models will beat me at chess?

Jan 1, 11:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

139397933

OptionProbability

Any model announced before 2034

Any model announced before 2032

Any model announced before 2033

Any model announced before 2031

Any model announced before 2030

Any open-weights model announced before 2030

Any model announced before 2029

Any model announced by Anthropic before 2030

Any model announced by Google before 2030

Any model announced by a Chinese lab before 2030

Any model announced by OpenAI before 2030

Any model announced by Meta before 2030

Any model announced by SSI before 2030

Any model announced by xAI before 2030

Any model announced before 2028

Any model announced before 2027

GPT-6

Gemini 4

Any Claude Mythos model (first version released)

Claude 3.5 Opus

Any Claude 5 model

Grok 5

OpenAI o4

Claude 5 Opus

Gemini 3.5

GPT-5.6

Any model announced before July 1, 2026

Claude Opus 4.9

GPT-5

Grok 3

OpenAI o3

DeepSeek-V4

Any model announced before 2026

Llama 4

GPT-4.5

Gemini 2.5

Gemini 3

Any Claude 4 model

grok-4

Sonnet 4.5

Kimi K2

GPT-5.1

Claude 4.5 Opus

GPT-5.2

Opus 4.6

GPT-5.4 (x-high fast)

GPT-5.5

Muse Spark (from Meta)

Opus 4.7

Opus 4.8

Let's all bet on what Slay the Spire 2 will be like! Go to town

Jun 17, 4:16 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

48126850

OptionProbability

It will have a new character (not just a revision or morph)

Jorbs will play it on twitch live in the first week of release

In mid 2026 there will be more concurrent players on StS 2 than on StS 1

The final boss will be the heart (or some obvious natural evolution of that character)

All current cards for at least one character will be playable

It will be released first in 2024

It will be released first in 2025

There will be some game mechanic like ascension levels but they will go higher or take more steps than sts1's ascension 20

It will have four playable characters on release

100

By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?

Sep 30, 7:42 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

43.83%chance

15588390

OptionVotes

YES

1182

636

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?

Jul 13, 11:37 AMJan 2, 12:30 PM

37.26%chance

10118664

OptionVotes

YES

1162

869

By 2029, will AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 Indie Games?

Oct 2, 1:12 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

74.79%chance

4915883

OptionVotes

YES

1802

430

Will AI beat top Magic the Gathering human player before the end of 2028?

Mar 3, 11:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.09%chance

6710247

OptionVotes

YES

1670

331

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.76%chance

766811

OptionVotes

YES

1891

1299

Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2028?

Aug 26, 8:36 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

66.35%chance

194479

OptionVotes

YES

1404

712

Will the first Manifold market to reach 1 million views have 10,000 or more traders before it reaches 1 million views?

Feb 17, 5:23 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

44%chance

162098

OptionVotes

YES

1153

856

Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2029?

Aug 26, 8:37 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

78.94%chance

71727

OptionVotes

YES

1936

517

The Long Game News

Prediction markets for The Long Game

Prediction markets for The Long Game

Prediction markets for The Long Game

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Which of these Language Models will beat me at chess?

Let's all bet on what Slay the Spire 2 will be like! Go to town

By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?

By 2029, will AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 Indie Games?

Will AI beat top Magic the Gathering human player before the end of 2028?

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2028?

Will the first Manifold market to reach 1 million views have 10,000 or more traders before it reaches 1 million views?

Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2029?

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