The Long Game News

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

12.63%chance

802467730

OptionVotes

YES

48915

11661

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.59%chance

472396309

OptionVotes

YES

3236

1913

Which of these Language Models will beat me at chess?

Jan 1, 11:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

101257890

OptionProbability

Any model announced before 2032

Any model announced before 2031

Any model announced before 2029

Any model announced before 2030

Any model announced by OpenAI before 2030

Any model announced by Anthropic before 2030

Any open-weights model announced before 2030

Any model announced by a Chinese lab before 2030

Any model announced before 2028

Any model announced by xAI before 2030

Any model announced before 2027

GPT-6

Gemini 4

Grok 5

Any Claude 5 model

Claude 5 Opus

Gemini 3.5

Claude 3.5 Opus

Any model announced before 2026

OpenAI o4

DeepSeek-V4

GPT-5

Grok 3

OpenAI o3

Llama 4

GPT-4.5

Gemini 2.5

Gemini 3

Any Claude 4 model

grok-4

Sonnet 4.5

Kimi K2

GPT-5.1

Claude 4.5 Opus

By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?

Sep 30, 7:42 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

51.06%chance

12148810

OptionVotes

YES

1287

519

Let's all bet on what Slay the Spire 2 will be like! Go to town

Jun 17, 4:16 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

1924493

OptionProbability

It will have a new character (not just a revision or morph)

In mid 2026 there will be more concurrent players on StS 2 than on StS 1

Jorbs will play it on twitch live in the first week of release

It will have four playable characters on release

There will be some game mechanic like ascension levels but they will go higher or take more steps than sts1's ascension 20

The final boss will be the heart (or some obvious natural evolution of that character)

All current cards for at least one character will be playable

It will be released first in 2024

It will be released first in 2025

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?

Jul 13, 11:37 AMJan 2, 12:30 PM

22.96%chance

9417451

OptionVotes

YES

1707

640

Will AI beat top Magic the Gathering human player before the end of 2028?

Mar 3, 11:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30%chance

638825

OptionVotes

YES

1647

341

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.49%chance

716636

OptionVotes

YES

1742

1335

In 2025, will I be able to play Civ against an LLM?

Aug 25, 11:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.09%chance

536425

OptionVotes

YES

3162

316

By 2029, will AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 Indie Games?

Oct 2, 1:12 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

76.39%chance

355631

OptionVotes

YES

1868

409

Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2028?

Aug 26, 8:36 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

70.91%chance

163619

OptionVotes

YES

1561

641

Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2029?

Aug 26, 8:37 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

79%chance

61726

OptionVotes

YES

1940

516

The Long Game News

Prediction markets for The Long Game

Prediction markets for The Long Game

Prediction markets for The Long Game

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Which of these Language Models will beat me at chess?

By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?

Let's all bet on what Slay the Spire 2 will be like! Go to town

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?

Will AI beat top Magic the Gathering human player before the end of 2028?

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

In 2025, will I be able to play Civ against an LLM?

By 2029, will AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 Indie Games?

Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2028?

Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2029?

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