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Prediction markets for The Machines Game

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

43%chance

20821836902

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4995

3772

Will China have a commercial, domestically-built EUV machine by the end of 2026?

Jan 11, 9:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26%chance

299068

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

457

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.88%chance

726686

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1792

1322

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

If I get rid of my old macbook, will I regret it within 15 years?

Dec 16, 7:40 AMDec 16, 7:38 AM

13.14%chance

131981

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2571

389

Will Half‑Life 3 be officially announced in 2026?

Dec 18, 3:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59%chance

261266

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

83

Will there be an AI "Let's Play" channel by 2030?

Jun 11, 7:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

94.65%chance

211257

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1541

925

Will there be a new Pokemon Pinball game before March 2029? [multiple choice]

Dec 12, 9:00 PMMar 2, 7:59 AM

3436

OptionProbability

Yes, an officially licensed physical pinball machine.

Yes, a remake.

Yes, an official game for mobile phones.

Yes, a pinball minigame in a minigame collection

Yes, a full fledged non-phone non-remake new release.

100

34

34

34

20

Will China have a commercial, domestically-built EUV machine by the end of 2027?

Sep 20, 8:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.82%chance

11372

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

65

Will the Pirates of the Caribbean pinball machine from Jersey Jack pinball be remade before 2034?

Jan 17, 4:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.5%chance

3262

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1094

914

I make a coin-pusher game?

Dec 3, 9:43 PMApr 5, 10:59 PM

23.58%chance

380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

180

56

Major racquet sports tourney uses robot servers

Apr 29, 9:01 AMJun 30, 8:47 AM

51.5%chance

270

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

971

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