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Prediction markets for The Machines Game

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

44.93%chance

21121879515

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4803

3923

Will China have a commercial, domestically-built EUV machine by the end of 2026?

Jan 11, 9:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26%chance

299068

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

457

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.08%chance

746756

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1862

1305

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

If I get rid of my old macbook, will I regret it within 15 years?

Dec 16, 7:40 AMDec 16, 7:38 AM

13.14%chance

131981

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2571

389

Will Half‑Life 3 be officially announced in 2026?

Dec 18, 3:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.26%chance

341457

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

97

Will there be an AI "Let's Play" channel by 2030?

Jun 11, 7:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

94.65%chance

211257

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1541

925

Which books will I rate 5 stars, if I read them?

Jan 1, 6:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

231124

OptionProbability

The Way of Kings by Brandon Sanderson

Merchant Magician by John Champaign

The Road by Cormac McCarthy

(The books you will rate 5 stars)

The Player of Games by Iain M. Banks

Crime and Punishment

Catch-22 by Joseph Heller

Lord of Light by Roger Zelazny

Hyperion by Dan Simmons

Exhalation by Ted Chiang

War with the Newts

Small Things Like These by Claire Keegan

Great Gatsby

If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies by Nate Soares and Eliezer Yudkowsky

Existential Kink by Carolyn Elliott

99

85

75

66

65

64

64

61

61

57

50

50

43

41

19

Will the Pirates of the Caribbean pinball machine from Jersey Jack pinball be remade before 2034?

Jan 17, 4:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.5%chance

3262

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1094

914

Major racquet sports tourney uses robot servers

Apr 29, 9:01 AMJun 30, 8:47 AM

51.5%chance

270

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

971

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

Will the Next-gen Xbox allow the installation of any Windows app?

Mar 16, 12:21 AMNov 30, 12:09 AM

45.25%chance

212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

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