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Prediction markets for The Machines Game

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

43.01%chance

21801950278

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4995

3773

Will China have a commercial, domestically-built EUV machine by the end of 2026?

Jan 11, 9:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.94%chance

349246

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1076

503

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.76%chance

766811

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1891

1299

Will Half‑Life 3 be officially announced in 2026?

Dec 18, 3:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22%chance

503044

OptionVotes

YES

NO

188

53

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

If I get rid of my old macbook, will I regret it within 15 years?

Dec 16, 7:40 AMDec 16, 7:38 AM

13.14%chance

131981

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2571

389

Will there be an AI "Let's Play" channel by 2030?

Jun 11, 7:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

94.65%chance

211257

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1541

925

Will the Pirates of the Caribbean pinball machine from Jersey Jack pinball be remade before 2034?

Jan 17, 4:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.96%chance

5473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1306

766

I make a coin-pusher game?

Dec 3, 9:43 PMApr 5, 10:59 PM

23.58%chance

380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

180

56

Major racquet sports tourney uses robot servers

Apr 29, 9:01 AMJun 30, 8:47 AM

51.5%chance

270

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

971

Will the Next-gen Xbox allow the installation of any Windows app?

Mar 16, 12:21 AMNov 30, 12:09 AM

45.25%chance

212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

How long to beat GTA VI (Main + Extra) on HowLongToBeat, as of end of 2026?

Jun 24, 5:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Under 30h

30h to under 40h

40h to under 50h

50h to under 60h

60h to under 70h

70h to under 80h

80h to under 90h

90h to under 100h

100h or more

N/A — no qualifying value (see rules)

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

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