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The Mother News

    Prediction markets for The Mother

    OptionProbability

    One Battle After Another

    Sinners

    Hamnet

    Marty Supreme

    Sentimental Value

    Frankenstein

    The Roses

    Michael

    Mother Mary

    The History of Sound

    After the Hunt

    Eddington

    The Lost Bus

    Highest 2 Lowest

    Avatar: Fire and Ash

    The Ballad of a Small Player

    A Big Bold Beautiful Journey

    Wicked: For Good

    Train Dreams

    70

    20

    6

    4

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    Severance Fan Theories [add predictions]

    Feb 1, 8:48 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
    6213098

    OptionProbability

    Helena was pretending to be her innie in S2E01

    Gemma is alive

    Burt is revealed to be still working for Lumon in some capacity

    Jame Eagen will try to replace Helena with her innie

    Mark impregnated Helly

    Lumon was involved in Gemma's death

    Several/all non-severed employees have been raised by Lumon since childhood

    All or parts of “the board” are not living humans

    Mark and Gemma are no longer needed to complete Cold Harbor, as of S2 end

    Helena will turn against Lumon

    Outie Mark appears in S3E1 (no flashbacks)

    Lumon killed or somehow hurt Selvig’s mother or other relative

    Mark Scout and Ms Casey / Gamme Scout will be back together

    Innie Mark appears in S3E1 (no flashbacks)

    Lumon’s goal is to use severance to end psychological trauma

    Milchick will turn against Lumon

    Mark fully reintegrates

    Lumon’s goal is to bring back Kier, either as a person or his consciousness in some form

    Lumon is working on technology of resurrection

    By end of S3E1, Outie Gemma has talked to someone unaffiliated with Lumon about her experience

    Lumon willfully reveals the technology enabled by Cold Harbor to the public by end of S3E1

    Cobel and Jame Eagen had a child

    Sometime between end of S2 and end of S3E1, Outie Mark and Gemma meet (not necessarily on screen)

    Helena was pretending to be her innie in S2E01

    Cobel is Mark’s mother

    Some of Ricken’s eccentric friends (Patton, Rebeck and/or others) are or were severed

    Dylan will not stay alive through whole series

    Mammalian Nurturables’ outies are prisoners, homeless, and/or addicts

    Severance was designed for Helena

    Cobel/Selvig is or was previously severed

    There will be a successful suicide of one of the main characters

    Mark Scout is from Eagan family

    Cobel/Selvig is related by blood to the Eagan family

    Lumon is cloning people

    Miss Huang is from the testing floor

    Miss Huang is a young clone of Ms Casey

    Ms. Casey was a clone in S1

    MDR are working on retrieving/decoding/interpreting the consciousness or memory of dead people

    The goats are grown to be lab-rats for experiments

    100

    100

    89

    83

    82

    80

    78

    67

    65

    64

    63

    62

    62

    59

    58

    53

    45

    41

    41

    41

    39

    37

    37

    27

    23

    20

    20

    19

    15

    13

    13

    12

    11

    9

    8

    4

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    2027

    2028

    2026

    2025

    2024

    9

    9

    7

    1

    0

    For which events will Manifold change its logo in 2026?

    Dec 17, 12:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    173531

    OptionProbability

    10/31 Halloween

    12/25 Christmas

    Thanksgiving

    Easter

    11/03 U.S. Election Day

    06/** Pride Month

    Fall equinox (or fall in general)

    Winter Solstice (or winter in general)

    12/31 New Year's Eve

    03/14 Pi Day

    Any Manifest

    04/01 April Fools Day

    Cortina Winter Olympics

    Saint Patrick's Day

    The Oscars

    05/27 Memorial Day

    07/04 U.S. Independence Day

    05/04 Star Wars Day

    03/08 International Women's Day

    Juneteenth

    Spring equinox (or spring in general)

    04/22 Earth Day

    Mother's Day

    Father's Day

    Labor Day

    11/11 Veterans Day/Armistice Day

    05/05 Cinco de Mayo

    Summer Solstice (or summer in general)

    82

    81

    66

    50

    50

    47

    37

    37

    32

    31

    30

    28

    26

    21

    20

    20

    20

    18

    15

    15

    12

    10

    10

    10

    10

    10

    9

    9

    Isaac King's Guessing Game

    Nov 4, 10:40 PMOct 14, 8:16 AM
    292002

    OptionProbability

    Isaac likes experimenting

    You'd say you're more of a dog person than a cat person

    You've been in a desert once

    You regret ever making WvM (feel free to n/a if you'd rather not say)

    You have ever looked through list of a Manifold user's bets to determine their position on some question

    You've been vegetarian for >1 continuous year

    (if you're not married) you've thought about marrying your current partner (if you're in a relationship)

    You like listening to violin more than you like listening to piano

    You're older than me (I'm 23)

    you consider your partner to be your best friend as well

    You're younger than 30

    You think it's fine for minors to date adults

    You consider yourself part of the rationality sphere

    You think of yourself as a dog person more than a cat person

    You seem to enjoy indie stuff more than the average person does

    you've defected on some sort of deal you made with another person

    The first book you remember reading in your life has an animal as its main character

    You tend to wear the same outfit every day.

    You think the effective altruism philosophy is good but the community overall is ineffective in implementing that philosophy

    You've spent a day in which you read a (single) book (or similar) for 10+ hrs

    You're an effective altruist

    You are qorrenqial

    You've read the CFAR Handbook

    You've held a gun in your hands before

    You've fired a gun at a target before

    You've jumped out of a plane

    You have attended some program or camp organised by MIRI

    You've knowingly misresolved a market once even though you didn't get called out for it

    You've been to a nightclub

    You've passed out from drinking alcohol

    You like to eat out more than you like to cook and eat

    You've worked with LED strip lights

    You've wondered what it'd be like to have a different name

    *You* have more than 6 stuffed animals

    You know >4 programming langauges

    You know >= 3 natural languages (in at least one of reading, speaking, or hearing understanding)

    You've felt desires to purchase a car with mana

    You have a political belief that'd cause at least one close friend to cut ties if they knew about it

    You wish you spent significantly less time on Manifold

    You sleep more during 7am->7pm hours than during 7pm->7am hours

    You prefer if these answers start with "You" than with "isaac"

    You feel you're the smartest member of your close family (mother, father, siblings)

    You have thought about shooting lasers from your eyes at traffic lights

    You have once made a joke about your name's similarity with Martin Luther King Jr.

    You think the effective altruism community is ineffective at PR and image management

    You have done some coding in python

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    90

    77

    70

    53

    49

    49

    41

    32

    30

    20

    8

    5

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Who will be the mother of Elon Musk's next child?

    Apr 17, 5:40 PMDec 31, 6:32 PM
    131665

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Shivon Zillis

    Ashley St Clair

    Tiffany Fong

    Grimes

    62

    27

    5

    3

    3

    Will Luffy's mother be revealed by the end of the series?

    Aug 16, 1:40 AMAug 16, 4:59 AM
    74.19%chance
    231125

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1084

    956

    OptionProbability

    Bellonara Otherys

    Other

    Just a simple septa

    Ashara Dayne

    Tyene Sand's mother

    Malora Hightower

    Wenda the White Fawn

    Serra Mopatis

    Lady Mellario of Norvos

    Elia Martell

    Lady Piper (wife of Quellon Greyjoy)

    Lyanna Stark

    15

    14

    9

    9

    9

    9

    9

    9

    9

    2

    1

    1

    The Boys Season 5 Death Pool

    Aug 27, 8:03 PMMay 1, 6:29 PM
    12368

    OptionProbability

    Butcher

    Firecracker

    A-Train

    Frenchie

    Homelander

    Hughie

    Black Noir II

    Soldier Boy

    The Deep

    Jordan (Gen V)

    Mother’s Milk

    Ashley

    Kimiko

    Sister Sage

    Stan Edgar

    Marie (Gen V)

    Annabeth (Gen V)

    Starlight

    Emma (Gen V)

    Sam (Gen V)

    Cate (Gen V)

    Cherie

    Monique

    Little Nina

    Zoe

    Donna (Starlight’s Mother)

    Ryan

    Queen Maeve

    95

    78

    66

    63

    63

    62

    58

    57

    52

    50

    48

    48

    43

    43

    43

    41

    41

    38

    34

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    28

    20

    10

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    172

    58

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    100

    100

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